For weeks now, Jonathan Kuminga has [been threatening to take the Qualifying Offer](/warriors-features-profiles/102594/warriors-report-jonathan-kuminga-qualifying-offer-trade-deadline). He’s repeatedly rejected the best offer on the table from the Golden State Warriors, which is reportedly two years and $45 million, with a team option for the second year. He has no chance of signing outright elsewhere, as no one can absorb the money he’s trying to make. And it sure doesn’t seem like a sign-and-trade is in the works.
Which means Kuminga is left with just two options: sign a new deal with the Dubs (which has a million different iterations), or sacrifice millions of dollars to take the Qualifying Offer, and re-enter free agency next offseason without restrictions.
I believe Kuminga’s flirtation with the Qualifying Offer, which he can sign anytime between now and October 1, is earnest, and not just a negotiation ploy. But the more I think about it, the more I realize just how bad it would be for Golden State if the fifth-year wing goes in that direction.
In the short term, Kuminga taking the one-year, $7.9-million deal would be good for the Dubs. They’d get to retain a player they still like (despite all the noise), without having to pay him the price he deserves. But if Kuminga takes the Qualifying Offer, it essentially assures two things: 2026-27 will be his final year in a Warriors jersey, and Golden State won’t get anything of note for him in a trade. The Dubs can live with either one of those realities, but not both of them.
No, the Warriors need Kuminga on a larger contract, and we’ve seen proof of this concept before. When Kevin Durant decided to leave, the Warriors executed a sign-and-trade for D’Angelo Russell, a player they otherwise would have had zero interest in; there were even reports that the Warriors may have met Russell’s initial contract request with an _increased_ salary, so as to facilitate a trade for a star. A few months later, Russell’s contract was used to trade for Andrew Wiggins, and a few years later, Wiggins’ was used to acquire Jimmy Butler III.
In that regard, the Warriors need Kuminga. They still believe that he has a chance to turn into a foundational player, and if he doesn’t, then they need to have a star-priced contract to build a trade around, or else they’ll be met with a highly disappointing return.
So why don’t they simply offer him more money, or at least the security he’s craving? Keep the financial terms, but tack on a third year and remove the team options. Would it really be so bad to re-sign Kuminga for three years and $70 million without any way out? The Dubs aren’t going to have financial flexibility anytime soon anyway, so the only one really hurt by an overpay is Joe Lacob, who is probably the highest on Kuminga of anyone in the front office.
But of course, it’s not quite that simple. The lack of league-wide interest in JK this offseason might have the team a little scared that he wouldn’t be tradable down the line. And overpaying just because is not a precedent that owners like to set with their GMs, nor one that GMs like to set with agents. And while it’s easy to armchair GM a good contract, there’s a decent chance that Kuminga would still have no interest in the framework laid out above.
It’s also quite possible that the Warriors are just playing hardball. They have a lot of leverage knowing that Kuminga would be sacrificing eight figures this year if he took the Qualifying Offer, with no guarantee that he’d be able to make it up next summer. Even if they’re comfortable paying him more, they could be waiting until he’s closer to having his back up against the wall to see if he blinks before they up their offer.
We probably won’t have a resolution for a while, and there are legitimate reasons for that. But there are also legitimate reasons for thinking the Warriors should just pull out their big kid checkbook and offer Kuminga a better deal. They need him more than they’re letting on.
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