Maybe it makes me a coward, but rooting for one of the offseason favorites stresses me out.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d much rather have a great team than a scrappy underdog, but there’s something written into my DNA as a sports fan that gets genuinely uncomfortable whenever my team is the trendy pick among sportswriters in the offseason. Maybe I’ve just been burned too many times by failing to live up to expectations, but I’m far more comfortable having a nice, low bar to clear.
And if you’re like me and were concerned about too-lofty expectations coming off a 14-win season last year, I’ve got good news: They’re just not.
This team won 14 games last season despite poor interior line play on both lines of scrimmage and a quarterback meltdown in the final two games. That same team is entering this season better at almost every position, save perhaps safety with the departure of Cam Bynum, and yet is largely viewed as a team primed for regression. There’s really only one reason: J.J. McCarthy.
There are doubters about the first-year starter out of Michigan, coming off his meniscus injury in the 2024 preseason, who was viewed by many as an overrated player uplifted by a run-heavy offense in college. And given the opportunity, they’d just rather shrug their shoulders and place their bets elsewhere.
In fantasy drafts, they’re passing on Justin Jefferson until the middle of the first round. In Vegas, the Vikings are third in odds to win the NFC North, marginally above the Chicago Bears in some books. Their over/under for win totals is somewhere around 8.5 wins, depending on where you look — a stark decline from 14 wins the season prior. The public is essentially looking at the Vikings with a good roster and an elite coaching staff, but with McCarthy at the helm, saying, Who knows?
To a certain extent, I can’t blame them. There are lots of unproven with McCarthy. We’ve seen him throw 24 total passes in a live NFL setting, and that was preseason. I can understand a wait-and-see approach from the outside national perspective.
For those of us who follow this team closely, though, I think the Vikings are an incredible buy-low. We see how excited this coaching staff is and understand Kevin O’Connell’s reputation with quarterbacks. Whether you’re a gambler, fantasy player, or just looking to earn some bragging rights with your friends, there’s real value in jumping on the Vikings hype train now while things are quiet.
Justin Jefferson’s over/under for average yards per game is 78.5, or 1335 for the season. That would be the second-lowest of his career, including 2023 when he missed 7 games and played many of those games with the likes of Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall throwing him the football. If you have any faith in J.J. McCarthy, smash that over.
Similarly, T.J. Hockenson’s over/under for average yards per game is 40.5, or 688.6 for the season. That’s a far cry from his one full season with the Vikings in 2023, where he had 960 and averaged 56 yards per game. It’s also less than the 45.5 yards per game in the games he played last season while working his way back from injury. There’s a good chance he greatly exceeds his total in 2025, especially playing for a young quarterback who had a reputation for feeding tight ends in college.
We could continue this exercise down the list, and it’s clear that basically every player on the Vikings offense is seemingly paying a “McCarthy tax” on their projected stat totals. They’re projecting outlier seasons not just in comparison to a successful 2024, but also in relation to the body of work in their careers. However, the easiest way to demonstrate that is to go to the source himself, J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy’s over/under for passing yards is about 220.5 per game or 3,750 for the season. We may not have priors on McCarthy to compare to, but we can look at the other Kevin O’Connell QBs.
Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullens combined for 4,771 passing yards in 2022. The revolving door of Cousins, Dobbs, Mullens, and Hall combined for 4,700 yards passing in 2023. And Darnold passed for 4,319 yards last season while starting all 17 games. Even accounting for all of the different guys that Kevin O’Connell has worked with in his time in Minnesota, the 3,750 projection would be almost 600 yards less than the lowest passing total any of his QBs have had thus far.
Maybe you think this team is going to run the ball more, or you don’t think McCarthy’s knees can hold up for 17 games. Perhaps that’s valid. But if you look at O’Connell’s body of work as a playcaller, you know his offense is built on the passing game, and it would take a big shift in his overall philosophy to change that. If McCarthy plays a full season, he’s going to be throwing the ball and throwing it a lot.
The Vikings are seemingly doing the impossible, coasting into the season under the radar despite being one of the best teams in the NFC last season. The Detroit Lions are the reigning division winner, the Packers have absorbed all the national buzz with the Micah Parsons trade, and the Bears are the sexy dark horse pick for Caleb Williams believers under Ben Johnson’s tutelage. Quietly, the Vikings have just continued to put the pieces together and execute their organizational vision to uplift their young passer.
Now with the chance to execute that vision, they could be among the surprises of the season. The value is there if McCarthy can assuage the concerns of his doubters. I’d argue you should buy in now, because it’ll never be this cheap again.