|Bryce Young, Carolina|2023|2-14|59.8|2,877|5.5|11-10|73.7|
||2024|4-8|60.9|2,403|6.3|15-9|82.2|
|Comment: After a rough rookie year, the 2023 No. 1 pick was benched a few games into 2024, but showed notable growth after winning his job back later in the season.|
|C.J. Stroud, Houston|2023|9-6|63.9|4,108|8.2|23-5|100.8|
||2024|10-7|63.2|3,727|7.0|20-12|87.0|
|Comment: On the surface, Stroud dipped. Beyond the numbers, his receiving corps endured a rash of injuries, and he was actually better on intermediate throws over the middle.|
|Mac Jones, New England|2021|10-7|67.6|3,801|7.3|22-13|92.5|
||2022|6-8|65.2|2,997|6.8|14-11|84.8|
|Comment: Jones had a statistically similar rookie year to Nix, but collapsed under pressure his sophomore year and is now a backup in San Francisco.|
|Trevor Lawrence, J’ville|2021|3-14|59.6|3,641|6.0|12-17|71.9|
||2022|9-8|66.3|4,113|7.0|25-8|95.2|
|Comment: Lawrence took his lumps in his rookie year, but this is the ideal Year 1 to Year 2 trajectory for a No. 1 overall pick.|
|Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers|2020|6-9|66.6|4,336|7.3|31-10|98.3|
||2021|9-8|65.9|5,014|7.5|38-15|97.7|
|Comment: Herbert had one of the best rookie years in NFL history and has only continued to sling it since.|
|Kyler Murray, Arizona|2019|5-10-1|64.4|3,722|6.9|20-12|87.4|
||2020|8-8|67.2|3,971|7.1|26-12|94.3|
|Comment: The elusive Murray got significantly better at handling pressure in his second season, brought down just 27 times after an NFL-leading 48 sacks as a rookie.|
|Dak Prescott, Dallas|2016|13-3|67.8|3,667|8.0|23-4|104.9|
||2017|9-7|62.9|3,324|6.8|22-13|86.6|
|Comment: Prescott’s accuracy on intermediate throws took a nosedive in Year 2, a worrisome trend that — despite an excellent NFL career — has occasionally come back to bite him.|
|Carson Wentz, Philadelphia|2016|7-9|62.4|3,782|6.2|16-14|79.3|
||2017|11-2|60.2|3,296|7.5|33-7|101.9|
|Comment: Wentz was terrible at handling pressure as a rookie and took a massive leap in Year 2, but had a wholly unsustainable touchdown-to-interception ratio.|
|Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay|2015|6-10|58.3|4,042|7.6|22-15|84.2|
||2016|9-7|60.8|4,090|7.2|28-18|86.1|
|Comment: Pretty much the same big-armed risk-taker he was as a rookie, and has been pretty much the same dude ever since.|
|Derek Carr, Oakland|2014|3-13|58.1|3,270|5.5|21-12|76.6|
||2015|7-9|61.1|3,987|7.0|32-13|91.1|
|Comment: Another ideal point for Year 1 to Year 2 development, Carr’s deep ball was significantly better in his second year with the Raiders.|
|Geno Smith, N.Y. Jets|2013|8-8|55.8|3,046|6.9|12-21|66.5|
||2014|3-10|59.7|2,525|6.9|13-13|77.5|
|Comment: Smith was terrible on short accuracy as a rookie and slightly improved his second year, but this is a far, far cry from his current Raiders iteration a decade later.|
|Robert Griffin III, Wash.|2012|9-6|65.6|3,200|8.1|20-5|102.4|
||2013|3-10|60.1|3,203|7.0|16-12|82.2|
|Comment: Griffin self-admittedly lost confidence in his second year after an offseason procedure on his knee, setting in motion a precipitous decline following his rookie of the year debut.|
|Russell Wilson, Seattle|2012|11-5|64.1|3,118|7.9|26-10|100.0|
||2013|13-3|63.1|3,357|8.2|26-9|101.2|
|Comment: Long before his disastrous tenure in Denver, Wilson burst onto the scene as a rookie with a tremendous deep ball and only improved there en route to a Super Bowl ring in Year 2.|
|Andrew Luck, Indianapolis|2012|11-5|54.1|4,374|7.0|23-18|76.5|
||2013|11-5|60.2|3,822|6.7|23-9|87.0|
|Comment: One of the most-hyped QB prospects of the last 25 years, second-year Luck dialed back on some of the risk-reward that muddied his rookie year.|
|Ryan Tannehill, Miami|2012|7-9|58.3|3,294|6.8|12-13|76.1|
||2013|8-8|60.4|3,913|6.7|24-17|81.7|
|Comment: Tannehill struggled notably as an intermediate thrower as a rookie, and still struggled in his second year, but later righted the ship across a solid NFL career.|