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Oddsmakers Smell Regression From Baker Mayfield

![](https://www.joebucsfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Mayfieldright2024-e1718216865353.png)The Joe typing here is almost flabbergasted by the throngs of fans and media expecting Baker Mayfield to play better than he did last season.

Do these folks realize how high Mayfield set his own bar? The guy is not Superman.

Mayfield ranked second in touchdown passes last season (41) and third in completion rate (71.4 percent). He also ranked third in total yards (4,500) and third in first-down throws 224. If he ranks _sixth_ in all those categories this season, he’ll still be among the great QBs of the game.

Neither Josh Allen nor Patrick Mahomes threw for more than 28 touchdowns last season, or in 2023.

The Bucs need to play a lot better around Mayfield. Todd Bowles knows it, and Bucs fans should, too.

When it comes to futures wagers, Florida sportsbook Hard Rock Bet set Mayfield’s over/under on total touchdown passes this season at 29.5.

![](https://www.joebucsfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Mayfieldoverunder.png)

Remember, Mayfield threw 41 TDs last year.

Joe’s not advising anyone to jump on this wager, or to ignore it. Just keep in mind only five quarterbacks threw 30 or more touchdowns last season. That total was four in 2023.

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