Four months from now, the Patriots will be in one of two places.
No. 1: skipping into the playoffs with nothing to lose.
No. 2: playing for nothing while they prepare for Year 2 under Mike Vrabel.
Oddsmakers currently cast the Patriots as a likely non-playoff team, a reasonable assessment for a franchise coming off consecutive 4-13 seasons and four losing seasons in five years. Their over-under win total sits at a mediocre 8.5.
On the other hand, the fastest way to fuel a surprise playoff run is to do exactly what the Patriots did by upgrading all of their most important positions. Those are, in some order: head coach, pass rusher, wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line and, of course, quarterback.
Check, check, check, check, check and — presuming a Year 2 leap from Drake Maye — check.
The Pats also stockpiled significant talent elsewhere, guaranteeing almost $200 million in free agency to revive a roster beset by a decade-plus of bad drafts. Four of Vrabel’s first five draft picks — left tackle Will Campbell, running back TreVeyon Henderson, left guard/center Jared Wilson and safety Craig Woodson — are now expected to start Week 1 or later this season. Combine all of that fresh talent with the deepest coaching staff since the Patriots’ last Super Bowl run and the league’s second-easiest schedule … is the postseason really all that far fetched?
If the Patriots make the playoffs, they will have checked certain non-negotiable boxes along the way. If they fall short, the reasons why are already sitting in plain sight.
Here are the cases for and against the Patriots making the 2025 NFL playoffs.
Why the Patriots will make the playoffs
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel talks to an official during an NFL preseason game against the New York Giants, Thursday, Aug.. 21, 2025, in East Rutherford, NJ. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel talks to an official during an NFL preseason game against the New York Giants, Thursday, Aug.. 21, 2025, in East Rutherford, NJ. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
Start with Vrabel.
The Patriots have replaced one of the worst head coaches in football last year with a good one by any metric. Vrabel went 54-45 over six seasons in Tennessee. As an underdog, he posted the second-highest winning percentage of any head coach from 2018-23, and won the highest percentage of coaches challenges. No surprise, he was also widely regarded as one of the best in-game strategists in the NFL.
So, instead of botching basic clock management over and over again as Jerod Mayo did last year, when the Pats finished 3-6 in one-score games, expect those situations and records to flip. Toss-up games — like the opener against Las Vegas and a Week 3 visit from Pittsburgh — are now tilted in the Patriots’ favor, provided they come down to finer coaching details.
For a team coming off back-to-back four-win seasons, that is a major, major shift. And then, there’s the quarterback.
But it’s not just that history tells us Maye should make a major leap in Year 2. The fact that Maye is no longer surrounded by the NFL’s worst pass protection and a bottom-5 receiving corps is a boost unto itself. He’s also benefiting from sharper coaching, starting with Josh McDaniels and the offensive assistants Vrabel installed around him who have helped evolve McDaniels’ offense to suit Maye.
So armed with more experience and more answers at the line of scrimmage — which McDaniels’ offense affords every quarterback — Maye will have every benefit a quarterback could want. Of course, he can’t protect himself or catch his own passes, but even in those situations, he can and will buy his receivers more time. Maye’s mobility is the key to unlocking a new dimension for the Patriots offense, which has lagged behind modern attacks without off-schedule playmaking.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) unsuccessfully fends off Washington Commanders defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton (95) and fumbles the ball as the Patriots take on the Commanders. (Staff Photo By Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) unsuccessfully fends off Washington Commanders defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton (95) and fumbles the ball as the Patriots take on the Commanders. (Staff Photo By Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)
Because Maye’s pass protection and receiving corps will fail him. He will be pushed outside of the pocket and play structure. There, we know, Maye can thrive, provided he protects the ball. He rushed for more than 400 yards on scrambles alone last season, and threw multiple touchdowns outside of structure.
Unlikely last year, expect the Patriots to weaponize Maye on designed runs in the red zone and key third-and-short situations. He is the best quarterback Vrabel has ever coached, and perhaps the most physically gifted McDaniels has ever had. So if McDaniels can make chicken salad out of Mac Jones, he can certainly do it with Maye.
Finally, the defense.
In Tennessee, Vrabel’s defenses straddled league average most years. But there was a constant theme: the Titans’ run defenses ranked among the best in the league, while they rarely offered enough resistance against the pass. At worst, that should flip in New England. At best, this is a top-10 defense just waiting to coalesce.
And don’t fret about the pivot to a new scheme rooted in quarters coverage and an attacking, yet creative, four-man rush.
In zone coverage, star cornerback Christian Gonzalez allowed the fifth-lowest passer rating of any corner in football last season. He remains a demon in man-to-man. Gonzalez’s running mate, free-agent addition Carlton Davis, is a veteran of this coverage scheme. Between those two, rising pass rushers in Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and K’Lavon Chaisson, plus Harold Landry, who posted 10 sacks last season in a down year, this is a top-10 pass defense on talent alone.
Bank on it.
Why the Patriots will miss the playoffs
Like any team with playoff hopes bigger than their talent pool, the Patriots must stay healthy.
Any significant injury to Maye, Gonzalez, Campbell or even Williams should send them spiraling. And history says they won’t get lucky.
New England Patriots offensive tackle Will Campbell stands on the sideline during the first half of an NFL preseason game against the Washington Commanders on Friday, Aug. 8 in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
New England Patriots offensive tackle Will Campbell stands on the sideline during the first half of an NFL preseason game against the Washington Commanders on Friday, Aug. 8 in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Over Vrabel’s final two years at Tennessee, the Titans ranked 30th and 32nd in adjusted games lost, an advanced metric that accounts for injury severity and players’ roles on a team. Tennessee placed more than 30 players on injured reserve in Vrabel’s penultimate season of 2022. It’s unclear how much that history will influence what comes next in New England, though it’s fair to speculate the Patriots’ new playing style — with an added emphasis on violence defensively — will factor.
Just ask Dan Campbell’s hard-charging Detroit Lions, who at one point had 21 players on IR last year and got upset in the playoffs because they’d been ravaged by injuries.
Then there’s the matter of the roster talent. The Patriots cut bait with two NFL-caliber players this week in wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and safety Jabrill Peppers. Their releases thinned out a pool of veterans the team could reliably count on come game day, even if Bourne is best suited for a No. 4 or No. 5 receiver role and Peppers’ fit in the new scheme isn’t hand-in-glove.
In place of those veterans, the Pats have rostered 11 rookies, meaning more than 20% of their roster consists of first-year players. Relying on rookies — like Campbell, Henderson, Woodson and others — invites a roller-coaster existence for the rest of the team as they live and die with alternating boneheaded mistakes and strokes of brilliance on Sundays. Campbell and Wilson will especially affect how games go given they’re expected to protect Maye’s blind side.
And that leads us to the greatest concern of all: the offensive line. If and when the Patriots are trailing, opponents will be free to tee off on an O-line that may field a single above-average pass-blocker this year.
New England offensive tackle Morgan Moses enters the field as the Patriots hold practice outside Gillette Stadium. (Staff Photo By Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)
New England offensive tackle Morgan Moses enters the field as the Patriots hold practice outside Gillette Stadium. (Staff Photo By Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)
Last season, right guard Mike Onwenu and right tackle Morgan Moses graded out positively at Pro Football Focus, while Campbell and Wilson were in college, and Garrett Bradbury ranked among the NFL’s worst pass-protectors among all centers. Moses is now 34 and showed signs of rust and age in camp. Meanwhile, Bradbury lived up to his PFF reputation, and history says Campbell and Wilson are guaranteed to struggle.
There is no getting around the difficulties of stopping elite pass rushers as a 21-year-old — Campbell is — or a rookie playing a new position AKA Wilson. There’s no question the Patriots improved their offensive line from a year ago, when they owned the worst unit in the league. But if they’re packing their bags in early January, it’s a lock the front office will be targeting this group all over again come free agency and the draft.
Dugger, Jennings ready to move on
Were it not for his contract, Kyle Dugger might be elsewhere.
This summer, the Patriots engaged in trade talks with multiple teams that had interest in Dugger but ultimately passed. The 29-year-old safety remained on the Pats’ roster through Tuesday’s roster cuts, after potential suitors were unwilling to absorb most of the remaining three years on the four-year, $58 million extension he signed last year.
And so, Dugger and the Patriots now walk hand in hand into the regular season and past the discomfort of a near summer split.
New York Giants wide receiver Beaux Collins (8) can't make the catch against New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger during the second quarter of an NFL game Thursday in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
New York Giants wide receiver Beaux Collins (8) can't make the catch against New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger during the second quarter of an NFL game Thursday in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
“If anything, I was pretty neutral on it,” Dugger told reporters this week. “I knew anything could happen, so that’s how I kind of where I stayed. I spent a lot of time with my family (Tuesday), and that was very grounding and humbling, so that’s kind of what I did. I really wasn’t thinking about it too much.”
After a slow start to training camp, Dugger’s slide down the depth chart became obvious once he played deep into the team’s second and third preseason games against the Vikings and Giants, respectively. He took the field after fellow safeties Peppers, Jaylinn Hawkins, fourth-round rookie Woodson and even the recently released Marcus Epps. After the Pats’ preseason finale, Vrabel gave him a vote of confidence noting Dugger’s improvement in recent days.
In his first press conference since opting to keep Dugger on cutdown day, Vrabel expanded on the decision Wednesday.
“I think he’s feeling better, and I thought he had some really good snaps against New York,” Vrabel said. “I think he can help us, and obviously, find a role. (We’ve) talked to him about that, we’ll continue to talk to him about that, and provide value to the football team.”
Outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings can relate.
Jennings was also on the trade block for most of the summer, per sources; an edge rusher with 5.5 career sacks who drew little interest on the market because of his production. The Patriots did not seem him as a scheme fit in their new attacking, one-gap defense after Jennings spent his entire college and pro career playing in a system where getting up field was less of a priority than controlling the edge.
Like Dugger, Jennings said he’s happy to move on.
“It’s obviously a blessing to still be able to have an opportunity,” he told reporters. “I’m just excited to get ready to start working on an opponent and game plan, and ready to go get a win.”
Quote of the Week
“Yeah, that’s news to me. I mean, I think that we just, again, try to put the roster together. I guess when it when it doesn’t work out, you break up with somebody, your girlfriend doesn’t want to be with you, and then you say, ‘Well, I don’t want to be with you either.’ I’m not going to get into all that.” — Mike Vrabel on former Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and safety Marcus Epps reportedly requesting their releases this week