“I’m OK with that, ‘Grizz.'”
This is very interesting to Joe on a couple of levels.
Per the intel from Steve Patton of @PattonAnalytics, the more the Bucs last year used “big” personnel, the better Baker Mayfield played.
“Big” personnel, as Patton defined it, is either 12, 13 or 21 personnel. The first number refers to how many running backs are used. The second number refers to how many tight ends are used. For example:
10 Personnel = 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WRs
11 Personnel = 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs
12 Personnel = 1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs
13 Personnel = 1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR
21 Personnel = 2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs
22 Personnel = 2 RBs, 2 TEs, 1 WR
As you can see in the graphic below, only Saint Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were better in “big” personnel groupings.
Why does this interest Joe? Because Joe has a hunch the Bucs will run more big personnel groups in the first few weeks of the season because All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs is on the shelf recovering from knee surgery.
On Wednesday, Wirfs told the Sage of Tampa Bay sports, Ira Kaufman, that his goal is to get on the field for Week 4 against the Super Bowl-champion Eagles but his hope is the home opener against the Jets. Wirfs did admit the Jets game may be wishful thinking.
Until then, backup tackle Charlie Heck will step in for Wirfs. So Joe expects the Bucs to use more max-protect, likely meaning more big personnel to make up for Wirfs’ absence and cover for Heck.
Fortunately, Mayfield shines in that grouping.
Lamar is an actual cheat code https://t.co/iws2vUUfmS pic.twitter.com/NE5tNwEpNk
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) August 23, 2025