Back when I was a kid, there was a comic strip called “Peanuts.” It was about this group of kids, including Charlie Brown, going about their everyday life. You might know some of the old specials, like “Charlie Brown Christmas” or “It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown.” They came out back in the 1960s (damn I’m getting old)!
Anyways, one of the most famous scenes from Charlie Brown involves him trying to kick a football only to have his friend, Lucy, pick the ball up before he kicks it, resulting in Charlie landing on his backside. Why am I mentioning this now?
Well, if you draft Christian McCaffrey in the first round, you’re Charlie Brown … a fool who will ultimately land on your butt with great embarrassment.
McCaffrey has been one of the elite players in fantasy football in his time in the league. In fact, his numbers compare favorable with some of the great backs like Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson. The problem with CMC, of course, has been injuries. Over the last five years, he’s played in seven or fewer games three times.
That includes last season, when he missed all but four games due to injuries.
Still, fantasy managers are eating up the preseason reports about how great he looks and how he’s back at 100 percent. That’s awesome … for right now. But based on his lack of durability, that might be a temporary status. I’d also keep in mind that CMC is 29 years old, and he averaged around 12 points in his four games in 2024. That is a far cry from his career average in PPR formats, which is over 22 points per game.
Year Player Age Att Rush Yds Total Yards TDs PPR Points
2014 Matt Forte 29 266 1038 1846 10 346.6
2024 Derrick Henry 30 325 1921 2114 16 336.4
2023 Raheem Mostert 31 209 1012 1187 21 267.7
2024 Alvin Kamara 29 228 950 1493 8 265.3
2017 LeSean McCoy 29 287 1138 1586 8 263.6
2015 Adrian Peterson 30 327 1485 1707 11 260.7
2024 James Conner 29 236 1094 1508 9 253.8
2014 Justin Forsett 29 235 1266 1529 8 246.9
2023 Derrick Henry 29 280 1167 1381 12 246.7
2015 Danny Woodhead 30 98 336 1091 9 243.1
I would also keep in mind that if you’re drafting McCaffrey in Round 1, you’re expecting him to put up top-five numbers among running backs. Last season, that would have required a player to score 290-plus points and average 17-plus points.
Guess how many running backs at 29 years old or older have scored 290-plus points in the last 15 years? Two. Matt Forte (2014) and Derrick Henry (2024). Raheem Mostert came the closest without hitting 290 points, scoring 267.7 points in a total outlier season (2023). What’s more, just five backs (minimum 10 games) have averaged 17-plus points at age 29 or older since 2010.
That’s not a lot.
I would also keep in mind the 49ers have question marks on their offensive line. In fact, it was given an average C grade by the folks at 49ers on SI. Furthermore, Grant Cohn stated that “when Trent Williams is healthy, this group is average. When he's out, it might be the worst offensive line in the league.”
If the offensive line is bad, can you expect CMC to post elite numbers (again, assuming he plays close to a full season)? I’m not saying I wouldn’t take a chance on CMC in drafts, but not in Round 1. I want a player who I know I can trust like Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jahmyr Gibbs, Mailk Nabers or Amon-Ra St. Brown. All of them have been durable and highly productive in the careers.
So, if you think McCaffrey is a 50-50 bet (heck even a 65-35 bet) to stay healthy and put up huge numbers like he did earlier in his career, go ahead and take him in Round 1. But based on the data and trends I’ve discussed, I’m not willing to risk it.
Don’t be Charlie Brown.