MORSE: An In-Depth Look at the Patriots: Change, Challenges, and the Path Forward
(PHOTO: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images)
Season Preview
Evaluating Offseason Moves and Projecting the 2025 Season
Change is the only true constant in the National Football League, and few teams embody that assertion more vividly in 2025 than the New England Patriots. The recent release of Jabrill Peppers, the last of the team’s 2024 captains, has sent ripples through the fanbase and the football world at large. Sarah Marshall of Musket Fire captured the mood succinctly: “With the release of Peppers on Friday morning, the Patriots now have zero of their 2024 captains remaining on the team. It’s beyond clear that Vrabel wanted to reshape this roster into one that reflects his decisions and what he believes makes for the best football roster, even if that meant moving on from some longtime favorites.”
Vrabel’s Vision: A New Identity
For head coach Mike Vrabel, the decision to part ways with established leaders like Peppers is emblematic of a deliberate effort to instill his own philosophy, one rooted not in sentimentality but in a clear-eyed assessment of who fits the mold he envisions for the Patriots. Vrabel has long emphasized his desire to build a roster comprised of individuals who truly want to be part of this team—players who, in his mind, will elevate the collective rather than merely maintain the status quo.
Vrabel has sent a loud and clear message about what he plans to do with the team from here on out, and fans are split on how to respond. Many are still buying into what Vrabel is selling, while others are questioning several of his decisions already, despite knowing it will take more than one offseason to really implement his vision.
According to Mike Reiss, “one NFL front office source who has watched the Patriots this preseason described his view of them this way: Improving, playing hard, but thin in multiple spots beyond their starting lineup because of shaky drafts in recent years that have contributed to a roster that will require more than one year to replenish”.
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
Yet, this philosophy comes at a cost. By severing ties with key contributors, especially those with proven track records, the Patriots have sparked debates among fans and analysts alike. Peppers, for instance, had become a linchpin of the defense—a player whose impact stretched beyond statistics. In fact, Pro Football Focus awarded Peppers a stellar 90.1 rating for his combined performance over the last four seasons, placing him fourth among all safeties league wide. He formed a formidable partnership with Christian Gonzalez, and together they lifted New England’s secondary to a fifth-place league ranking according to PFF.
The release of Peppers, therefore, is not simply a reshuffling of personnel; it is a recalibration of identity. Some fans, steadfast in their support, see Vrabel’s moves as necessary steps toward long-term success. Others, more skeptical, question whether such drastic changes are prudent—especially given Peppers’ recent performance and the fact that the team is, arguably, weaker without him.
Last year, Jerod Mayo coached with Alex Van Pelt as his offensive coordinator. This season, Mike Vrabel takes over—a proven head coach who performed well as an underdog, ranking 12th out of 40 since 2018. Vrabel went 54-45 with the Titans, earning three playoff trips in six years despite frequent quarterback changes and salary cap limitations. Known for his disciplined, hard-hitting teams and smart game management, Vrabel brings intensity and preparation. His leadership is expected to improve the Patriots’ results, and I anticipate two more wins this season compared to last year.
I like Vrabel’s no-nonsense style. He is going to make the players responsible for what they do on and off the field. He is molding the team in his image, the way he wants them to play, hard hitting, playing to the whistle. Vrabel the coach is intense and prepared. His game management skills are evident from his experience in Tennessee. Vrabel got the best of Bill Belichick by employing a strategy that Belichick had used earlier in the season to take 1:46 seconds off the clock without running a play. He is prepared, a good game manager, and he will have his team ready to play each week. Because of Vrabel, I have the Patriots winning two games this year that they didn’t win last year under Jerod Mayo.
Center Garrett Bradbury (PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
The Offensive Outlook: Ground Game Ascendant
Offensively, the Patriots appear poised to embrace a run-heavy approach, with Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels at the helm. McDaniels, a disciple of the ground-and-pound philosophy, is expected to leverage the talents of the team’s top three running backs: Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, and rookie Tre’Veyon Henderson. The trio will share touches, with Henderson emerging as the designated specialist on third downs.
McDaniels, who has worked with a litany of backs over his storied career, is particularly enthusiastic about Henderson’s speed, calling him a “nightmare matchup for linebackers.” His quickness and agility offer a dynamic wrinkle to the Patriots’ offense, especially on passing downs. The expectation is that the offense will tilt toward a 60/40 split in favor of running the ball—a strategic choice born not just of philosophy, but necessity.
Why Run So Often? The Offensive Line Dilemma
One of the driving factors behind the anticipated run/pass disparity is the ongoing struggle along the offensive line. Instead of identifying a core group of five starters early in training camp, the Patriots have experimented with different line combinations throughout the preseason. This constant shuffling has prevented the linemen from developing the cohesion and chemistry required to excel, particularly in pass protection.
Running the football offers a solution to this problem. Run blocking is, by its nature, less dependent on intricate timing and communication than pass blocking, making it more manageable for a unit still learning to work together. If the Patriots can establish the run—consistently gaining yards and controlling the clock—they’ll be able to set up play-action passes for rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
(PHOTO: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images)
Play Action: Maye’s Learning Curve
Play-action passing is a proven method for boosting completion percentages and keeping defenses off-balance. However, it comes with unique challenges, especially for inexperienced quarterbacks. Drake Maye faces a particular hurdle: executing play-action fakes requires the quarterback to start under center, turn his back to the defense, and then quickly reacquire his bearings as he scans the field. For Maye, who did not play under center until his arrival in New England last season, this process has been an adjustment.
The intricacies of play-action demand that the quarterback trust his line, maintain poise, and process information rapidly as he pivots to face the defense. Maye’s continued growth in this area will be critical to the success of the offense. If he can master the art of play-action, the Patriots might find themselves able to capitalize on defenses stacking the box to stop the run.
Looking Ahead: The Path to Contention
As the Patriots transition into the Vrabel era, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. The roster is changing, with 27 of 53 players (50%) being new additions. The coaching staff is recalibrating, and the expectations of fans are as divided as ever. Some embrace the promise of change, trusting Vrabel’s vision and hoping that the pain of letting go familiar faces will prove worthwhile in the end. Others, wary of the risks associated with wholesale transformation, worry that the team may be further from contention than at any point in recent memory.
What is clear, however, is that the Patriots are committed to forging a new identity—one that prioritizes buy-in, effort, and adaptability over nostalgia and inertia. The upcoming season will likely be a crucible, testing the limits of the team’s resilience and the wisdom of its leadership. Success may not come quickly, and setbacks are almost certain. But within the crucible of change lies the potential for renewal.
As kickoff approaches, the spotlight shines on New England with renewed intensity. The league, and the nation, will be watching to see whether the Patriots can rise to meet the moment or whether this season will serve as a lesson—hard-earned and well-remembered—for the years that follow.
Peppers Release: A Shock To the Team
Sarah Marshall of Musket Fire had this to say about the Patriots “With the release of Peppers on Friday morning, the Patriots now have zero of their 2024 captains remaining on the team. It’s beyond clear that Vrabel wanted to reshape this roster into one that reflects his decisions and what he believes makes for the best football roster, even if that meant moving on from some longtime favorites.”
Vrabel has long said that he wants players on the team who genuinely want to be there and who will ultimately make the team better. Yet, we also know that he views the game differently and would wish the team to operate in a similar manner.
That’s why analysts believe Peppers was released, as he was not considered a fit for what Vrabel wants the defense to be, despite just how good he has been for them over the last three years since signing with the team”.
Offense
O ffensive Coordinator
Josh McDaniels, known for his success with Tom Brady, is the Patriots’ offensive coordinator. Both he and the head coach bring proven experience—something previously lacking. With a softer schedule and improved coaching, the Patriots have made greater efforts to give Drake Maye more support this season. The main concern remains the offensive line, identified early as a weakness for 2024.
Sharpe noted that last season, the poor offensive line made it unlikely Maye would start at quarterback right away, so bets favored Jacoby Brissett in Week 1 and unders on Maye’s season props—predictions that proved accurate.
The Patriots have an improved Offensive Line coaching group. Doug Marrone enters his 33rd year of coaching with 24 of those years in the NFL. He was head coach twice (5 ½ years). They added Jason “Hoss” Houghtaling and retained Robert Kugler from the Mayo Staff. I don’t know of another team that has three Offensive Line coaches.
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
Offensive Line
The offensive line has struggled, with ongoing rotation and lack of chemistry making run blocking easier than pass protection. Establishing the run should set up effective play action for Drake Maye, despite his limited experience playing under center. Situational substitutions could strengthen the run game, though relying on rookie left guard and tackle is risky.
Will Campbell shines at run blocking but struggles against speedy pass rushers, while Jared Wilson has limited starting experience and needs development in pass protection. Bradbury grades well in run blocking but poorly in pass blocking; Brown ranks even lower among centers.
According to Warren Sharpe’s 2025 Football Preview, last year’s Patriots offensive line was rated worst in the NFL for both pass and run blocking. To address this, New England signed veterans Moses and Bradbury, retained Onwenu, and drafted Campbell and Wilson, hoping improved talent and coaching will give Maye better protection and bolster a weak receiving corps.
Strength of Schedule
According to Sharpe the Patriots have the NFL’s #2 easiest schedule this year based on win totals and #3 easiest based on efficiency. This is huge reason why the Patriots are pre-season favorites to win in 11 games this season by the Vegas oddsmakers. Last Season the Washington Commanders had a very easy schedule and that is one of the reasons they were able to make the playoffs.
Receiving Corps
Going into last season Sharpe Football Analysis had the Patriots ranked as a the #32 (dead last) receiving corps in the NFL. Add to that an Offensive Line that swiss cheese and a rookie QB, it was a recipe for disaster (4 wins).
Sharpe has them ranked #30 going into this season. I thought he had drastically underestimated them. I think he may be right now.
Stefon Diggs has made a remarkable comeback from a torn ACL. No one expected he would be ready for the start of Training Camp. His full participation gives the Patriots a legitimate threat. Although they lack a true #1 receiver, they have depth. Kayshon Boutte was trade bait prior to the draft. All he does is go out every day in practice and produce. He has elevated him to the starting X receiver.
Mack Hollins, a free agent signee, has looked good after a slow recovery from an off-season injury. He is a legitimate threat in the Red Zone and a very good downfield blocker. Hollins has also taken rookie UDFA Efton Chism under his wing and is mentoring him.
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
Pop Douglas is primed for a big season as the slot receiver has been very productive and a big part of a Josh McDaniels offense. Look at the great ones he has coached, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. McDaniel coached Edelman for 13 of his 17-year career, all with the Patriots. McDaniels took him from a 7th round afterthought to a Super Bowl MVP (Super Bowl LIII) stud with the most memorable catch in the improbable comeback victory.
I loved the signing of Efton Chism. The week of the East West Shrine game I wrote about how uncoverable Chism was. This is what I wrote, “When you write about a guy two days in a row he must be impressing a lot of people. Steeler Depot has three folks watching the practices and all three commented about how he put together two good days of practice. Joe Clarke says “He has really reliable hands and is so shifty in space”. Melanie Friedlander went on to say “ He flashes on every play. A late add to the roster, he has shown that he belongs here. He reminds me of a classic Bill Belichick era Patriots slot receiver. Good burst, quick feet, sharp cuts, and always seems to know where the ball is at all times.” He had a scare at the end of practice with a twisted ankle, but he did not appear to be affected by it.
Chism is 5’10”, 195-pounds. His estimated 40-yard dash is just 4.57. In 2024 his stats line was 120-1311-13 and in 2022 it was 83-937-8. Remember that Eastern Washington gave us Kendrick Bourne and the Rams’ Cooper Kupp. His 3-cone drill time will be a good indicator of whether he can play in this league. Cooper Kupp’s 40 was 4.62 but the 3-cone was a very fast 6.75”. Chism ran a 6.77 3-cone drill and that is the 2nd fastest of a Patriots receiver since Julian Edelman. He went undrafted because he ran a 4.71 40-yard dash. Thank you, NFL executives, for not selecting Chism and I praise the Patriots front office for going out and making him a high offer to come and play here.
Javon Baker was a huge surprise in training camp. After a disastrous rookie season, Baker had made himself into a valuable special team’s player as well as a backup receiver. He stacked days upon days in Training Camp and had secured the 6th WR spot, only to be waived the day after the Initial 53-man roster was submitted. I think the team did him dirty, because the player that replaced him on the roster CB Charles Woods, is just a ST player like Baker was. They felt that Baker could make it to the Practice Squad. They were right and so very wrong about the player too. He cleared waivers but decided he was through with New England and signed with potential Super Bowl contender Philadelphia Eagles Practice Squad.
Rookie Kyle Williams has shown flashes with his speed. He was open several times in the Washington Pre-season game and QB Josh Dobbs failed to get him the ball. He beat the DB off the line and had two steps on him when Dobbs badly underthrew the ball. Dobbs also missed him on a quick slant in the red zone which should have been a TD. He is the fastest WR on the team and in a one-on-one matchup nightmare. This is a much better group of receivers that will be successful this year.
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
Drake Maye Second Year Jump
Other rookies in last year’s draft class had a big advantage on Drake Maye. They had more college experience. Maye missed his Senior Year of High School because it was wiped out by COVID. He Red Shirted his 1st year at North Carolina and started as a Red Shirt Freshman and had a terrific season. His second season as a starter was not as good. A new Offensive Coordinator and loss of talent contributed to this. He was selected by New England with the 3rd overall pick. However, he needed a lot of work on fundamentals and mechanics. He had never taken a snap from under center.
You have to give Alex Van Pelt and Ben McAdoo credit for Maye’s development. He wasn’t ready to start but was thrust into the lineup after 4 games. He showed signs of his development but he had too many turnovers (INT and Fumbles) and Turnover Worthy Plays. Maye had 2 years of college experience in what is considered the weakest Power Five conference in college football. In comparison Jayden Daniels played for 3 years at Arizona State and transferred to LSU in the SEC. That’s 5 years versus 2 of Maye. Daniels is 24 years old, and Maye just turned 22. I will also add that Maye has had a different Offensive Coordinator in each of his last 4 seasons. Josh McDaniels’ Offense is complicated, but Maye has appeared to have mastered it. He has become a clear leader of the team.
So far in Training Camp and Pre-season games, Maye has been making fewer Turnover Worthy Plays. Dan Orlovsky, a former NFL QB and ESPN Analyst pointed out this week that Maye missed Pop Douglas in a pre-season game, as he was breaking open up the seam, one-on-one versus a linebacker. Maye has become so risk-averse that he didn’t try that throw. Eventually, he rolled out and found Mack Hollins on the sideline for a good chunk play. Hollins had to tiptoe the sideline to make the high throw catch. Maye had missed Douglas earlier on another high throw (he was wide open) that nearly got picked off. It appears that Maye comes out too amped up at the start of games. Mayes’ development will depend on how the Offensive Line performs. If they can run the ball allowing the play action pass, the Pats will be successful. If the opponents stack the box and force the Patriots to pass, they will be in trouble.
Defense
Run Defense
I am very concerned about the front 7 being able to stop the run. They are a little light in the rear end. Williams and White are not good against the run. Spillane is not a downhill thumper and is small at 6’1” 229-pounds for an Inside Linebacker. I also think a 3 safety Nickel defense will be the standard for the Defense. I do see them having an improved pass rush. They couldn’t possibly be as bad as last season (dead last). The pass rush features flying upfield. This will be susceptible to screen passes and draw plays. A player like Keon White flying up field with no regard to his pass lane responsibly is a concern.
Injuries
Carlton Davis misses a month every season. I believe Alex Auston is a very capable backup who can fill in for Davis when he misses time. Overall, as the opening statement says, the Patriots are very thin in the backup positions. A key injury here or there could derail the team. Jack Gibbens is the only backup at ILB.
Christian Gonzalez doesn’t seem to be responding well to his hamstring injury. It has been five weeks since Gonzalez practiced. Some in the local media have questioned whether Gonzalez is treating this rehab ultra-conservatively. The comparison is New York Jets CB Sauce Gardner’s refusal to tackle last season. He was protecting himself in his 3rd season so that he could re-negotiate his rookie contract. Rookies are not allowed to get a contract extension until they have completed three seasons.
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
Front Office: Faulty Drafting
The team is in such bad shape with their depth because of poor drafting by Bill Belichick (Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel, N’Keal Harry, Mac Jones, Cole Strange) and by Eliot Wolf. Teams must use Free Agency to try and fill gaps because the Drafting has been so bad,
Prior to this year’s draft, the previous 4 drafts 2021 -2024, have yielded only 12 players on the 53-man roster.
Wolf in his 1st year and defacto GM, made one of the stupidest trades of all time. I’m not just saying this in hindsight. I reported this immediately after the draft. Giving up Ladd McConkey for what turned out to be Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker is a bigger heist than the 1950 Brinks Robbery in Boston. Further, Wolf and company were not prepared for the run on Offensive linemen that occurred and despite trying to trade up, got caught with their pants down. They settled for a college Right Tackle that had never played Left Tackle before, but they were sure he could make the switch. They took Caedan Wallace.
Selecting Drake Maye was no brainer and they don’t get any credit for making that pick. However, the remainder of the 2024 draft class is a disaster. Wallace and Maye are the only players on the active 53-man roster. Ja’Lynn Polk, who is on the Injured Reserve after suffering another shoulder injury. Javon Baker was waived and cleared waivers only to choose a fresh start and sign with the Eagles. Marcellus Dial is also on IR and gone for the year. Guard Layden Robinson, who started 11 games last season, was waived as was TE Jaheim Bell. Third-round pick Caedan Wallace, meanwhile, made the final 53-man roster, and is transitioning from tackle to guard this offseason. They traded sixth-rounder QB Joe Milton to Dallas and is now providing quarterback depth and uneven accuracy for the Dallas Cowboys. Milton was given away (Trade) because he wanted to be the starting QB and didn’t see himself as a backup to Drake Maye. They dumped him as a way to clear the deck and take away any distraction that Milton might be.
Season Prediction
I’ve lowered my win prediction from 11 to 8 for three reasons: concerns about the Offensive Line, especially after failing to secure a reliable Left Guard in free agency and losing Wes Schweitzer to retirement. The coaches delayed naming starters, hindering early chemistry development, which now must happen during the first four games—thankfully, against a manageable schedule. I’m worried about starting two rookie linemen together, particularly for the Raiders and Panthers games.
The Steelers have improved with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Jalen Ramsey in the secondary, and Jonnu Smith joining Pat Freiermuth at tight end, prompting me to mark that matchup as a Patriots loss.
Cutting Jabrill Peppers doesn’t strengthen the team compared to keeping Dugger, given their respective contracts and limited depth. The Patriots’ defense is shifting toward a more interchangeable Free Safety approach, but it’s unclear if Woodson or Hawkins can fill the role, especially as they open against standout TE Brock Bowers. Dell Pettus remains a solid backup at Strong Safety. Trade dynamics for Dugger and Peppers didn’t materialize due to contract issues.
Overall, the team should improve despite some growing pains, but they’re unlikely to contend for the playoffs or division title.