Projections.
Most of the sportsbooks across this great nation don’t seem all that enamored with the Bucs.
Most good teams, especially in lousy divisions, ought to have at least 10 wins. But, our friends in the desert don’t see it that.
Most sportsbooks have the Bucs’ season-win totals at 9.5. That’s borderline disrespect.
So the NFL Network’s resident stats queen, Cynthia Frelund, began playing with her Excel spreadsheets and she thinks she has the formula for the Bucs to hit the over.
That would be with Bucky Irving [getting more carries](https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-nfl-projected-win-totals-floor-ceiling-for-each-nfc-team).
> **Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS**
>
> **Wins:**
>
> 9.7
> **Ceiling:** 11.5
> **Floor:** 8.3
> **FanDuel over/under:** 9.5
>
> Bucky Irving made a splash as a rookie and is well-positioned to keep the momentum going in 2025, as left tackle Tristan Wirfs’ absence will likely lead Tampa to turn toward the ground game in the early going, in the hopes that Irving will provide the kind of chunk yardage he earned last season. In 2024, Irving averaged 5.5 yards per carry on rushes outside the tackles (fifth-most among backs, per NGS) and 5.3 yards per carry on rushes inside the tackles (second-most).
It’s interesting to Joe that Frelund’s, um, models have the Bucs winning as many as 11.5 games. Or, in real talk, 11 wins.
If the Bucs can survive the early virus spread by the injury bug with as many as three and maybe four starters on offense out, the Bucs reaching 11 wins is within range.
Man, it would really be disappointing if the Bucs only win nine games and miss the playoffs.