MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. - I’m concerned about the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa-to-Tyreek Hill passing combination, and by extension, the Dolphins’ offense. Soon, you might be concerned, too, as you realize the Dolphins must spend the next week forcing the Tua-to-Tyreek chemistry in preparation for the Sept. 7 season opener at Indianapolis. It’s a perilous situation for the offense.
The last time Dolphins quarterback Tagovailoa and wide receiver Hill were on the field together against an opponent was almost nine months ago, Dec. 22 against San Francisco, a 29-17 Dolphins win. Hill had three receptions for 29 yards, highlighted by a 24-yarder. He was targeted seven times. Those aren’t the numbers of a sharp combination.
Their previous appearance together was a 20-12 loss at Houston, the game in which Tagovailoa threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter while targeting Hill. Hill finished with two receptions for 36 yards after being targeted seven times. Afterward, he complained he didn’t have enough practice time with Tagovailoa. That situation has only gotten worse.
Remember, Tagovailoa, valued for his accuracy and anticipation, missed the final two games last season - against Cleveland and the New York Jets - with a hip injury. Hill, valued for his speed and the fear he imparts on defenses, missed most of organized team activities, minicamp, training camp, joint practices and preseason games while recovering from wrist surgery and an oblique injury.
On top of that, if you listen to Tagovailoa, his relationship with Hill has been a bit strained since Hill’s infamous “I’m out” postgame rant after last season’s finale against the Jets.
It’s hard to see how the Dolphins can rely on the Tua-to-Tyreek connection to beat the Colts. Opponents have increasingly shut them down. The duo produced only two 100-yard receiving games last season - Sept. 8 against Jacksonville and Dec. 8 against the Jets - both against teams that combined for nine wins.
You’ve seen this Dolphins offense without Hill the past few weeks in joint practices and preseason games. It’s harmless.
It leans heavily on the Tua-to-Jaylen Waddle connection and lacks the fear factor.
Opponents don’t defend against the threat of a touchdown on every play the way they do when Hill is on the field.
Coach Mike McDaniel has spun that realization into an alternative truth.
“You always want a player like that on the field,” he said of Hill, “but there is an unintended consequence of being able to be more versatile in your game and to focus intentionally on various things that we otherwise wouldn’t.”
OK, let’s look at that offensive versatility, which I maintain doesn’t exist at a game-winning level.
The run game has been disjointed because starting running back De’Von Achane has been sidelined with a calf injury, and Alexander Mattison, set to be RB2, sustained a season-ending neck injury. That left rookie Ollie Gordon II, a sixth-round pick, on the fast track to develop.
Further hurting the run game, right tackle Austin Jackson hasn’t had contact in joint practices or preseason games because of a lower-body injury.
As for the passing game, tight end Darren Waller, supposed to replace Pro Bowl tight end Jonnu Smith, hasn’t had contact since he retired in 2024. He hasn’t participated in a full practice despite being acquired weeks before camp.
The Dolphins badly need the Tua-to-Hill combo to be explosive.
Tagovailoa makes the offense go, but Hill makes it special.
Ask backup quarterback Zach Wilson what Hill does to a defense. He’ll tell you safeties normally play 10 or 12 yards deep. But with Hill, they’re 16 or 18 yards deep.
“Everyone starts to play a little bit softer,” Wilson said. “Corners play off a little more. Safety plays a little bit deeper.”
Wilson added that when Hill is on the field, “It does open up everyone else” because Hill requires multiple defenders.
Hill is unique. He makes the implausible realistic.
“In single high coverage,” Wilson said, “you’re normally taught never to throw deep third across the middle because there’s a safety back there, and his job is to play deep. Normally, it’s quarters coverage. But with Hill, I’ve noticed he is still running past deep third players, which is not normally a thing.”
You know the numbers with Hill. In the past two years, the Dolphins are 11-0 when he has 100 or more yards and 7-16 (.304) when he has 99 or fewer.
I think the Colts game will be one of those with Hill at 99 or fewer. Again, Hill has had almost no practice time with Tagovailoa in the past nine months. Because of that, I’m concerned about the Dolphins’ offense against Indianapolis.