NFC East
Washington 13-4
I know this win total will come as a surprise to many, but one factor has me high on these Commanders: Jayden Daniels.
No. 5 has made Washington the NFL’s most fun team to watch, which is why the Commanders are tied for the most stand-alone games (8) of any NFL team in 2025. Daniels is aided in his quest by newcomers Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel, and yes, a happy and paid Terry McLaurin, who paired historically well with Daniels in 2024.
Passing rating between Jayden Daniels & Terry McLaurin in 2024 (130.4)
Best single-season passer rating among a QB/receiver duo since Tom Brady & Rob Gronkowski in 2012
(via:@The33rdTeamFB) pic.twitter.com/K8ELzkTKNN
— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) August 25, 2025
And don’t sleep on the Deebo addition; he leads the NFL in yards after catch the last five years and he’s expected to be the catalyst for a progression for a unit that already ranked in the top five last year.
On paper, Washington has the NFL’s easiest schedule in September, opening the door for a fast start. But with a net rest disadvantage of -13 (the league’s third-worst in 2025), it could prove difficult for the Commanders to match or exceed last year’s 12 wins.
Furthermore, I have two big questions: 1) Can Matt Gay end the carousel at kicker?
The eighth placekicker signed in the span of 13 months missed multiple field goals in the preseason for a team that can’t afford another year of kicking instability if it’s going to play in as many close games as 2024.
And 2): Can the defense turn the corner from being one of the NFL’s worst units against the run to a reliable compliment to the potent offense?
The Commanders signed veteran maulers Deatrich Wise Jr., Javon Kinlaw and Eddie Goldman to help that defensive front (the latter two with local ties), plus the late (and underrated) addition of future Hall-of-Famer Von Miller, who seeks to become just the second player to win Super Bowls with three different teams, joining Matt Millen (who won one of his four career Super Bowls in Washington).
Von Miller joins the @Commanders after a season where he recorded the quickest pass rush get-off in the NFL (0.69 seconds, min. 150 pass rushes).
While playing limited snaps in Buffalo, Miller generated a 17.9% pressure rate, the 5th-highest among edge defenders with at least… https://t.co/vIuQ9oIB80 pic.twitter.com/vmmae689US
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) July 17, 2025
I think Washington enjoys back-to-back double-digit win seasons for the first time since 1990-91 — and like that ’91 season, the Lombardi Trophy comes back to the nation’s capital.
Eagles 10-7
Philadelphia is loaded after winning its second Super Bowl title in eight years, but I have a feeling there’s a letdown in 2025.
On paper, the Eagles look stout. The offensive and defensive lines are as good and tenured as any in the sport and maybe, just maybe, Nick Sirianni isn’t the petulant child we thought he was. But I have a feeling some of the changes may upset the balance in Philly.
With Kellen Moore off coaching the Saints, Kevin Patullo takes over as offensive coordinator. On defense, I can also see the reshuffled secondary taking a step back after dealing away C.J. Gardner Johnson.
Not to mention the reality that 28-year-old running backs don’t get more durable and Saquon Barkley (though a healthy scratch for Week 18 last season) has yet to play a full NFL season entering Year 8 — just the sort of fact that could invite back the Madden Curse.
Plus, the Eagles’ more difficult schedule and the 21-year streak without a repeat NFC East champion leads me to believe in a slight regression in Philly.
Ladies & gentlemen, your 2025 Dallas Cowboys pic.twitter.com/Tu5RnFWYk1
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) August 10, 2025
Cowboys 8-9
It brings me great joy to type this: Dallas, thanks to Washington’s resurgent 2024 season, is now the only NFC team to fail to reach the conference championship game in the not-so-new millennium.
Jerry Jones, whose front office is composed almost entirely of people who share his surname, settled for the OG nepotism hire, Brian Schottenheimer. I’m not sure why Jones thinks someone partially responsible for last year’s no-show under Mike McCarthy can do better in the lead role but … do you, Jerruh.
And if his 8-part Netflix documentary told us anything, Jerry will always do him. I did this preview before the blockbuster Micah Parsons trade, which could either derail the Cowboys’ season (especially considering he didn’t get what could/should have been a Herschel Walker-esque haul for an All-Pro pass rusher entering his prime) or galvanize the locker room.
Either way, Dallas has defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus (who is as strong at leading a defense as he is bad at head coaching) going for it and a healthy (and probably soon-to-be crazy) Dak Prescott throwing to “two No. 1 receivers” with the addition of George Pickens.
But my simple recipe for predicting a Cowboys season is already playing out: Size up what you think they are … then subtract two games.
Dallas played in the NFC Championship Game 16 times preceding the first 30 Super Bowls. The 2025 season will ensure the Cowboys go 0 for the ensuing 30.
Giants 5-12
The Giants have a stronger roster than this record implies but Big Blue has a big hurdle to clear — the NFL’s toughest schedule.
I know there’s fallacy in assessing strength of schedule based on last year’s results, but New York’s opening month (at Washington, at Dallas, then home against Kansas City and the LA Chargers) lends itself to an 0-4 start, maybe 2-2 at best.
While rookie Abdul Carter can help an already underrated defense ugly up some games to make them winnable, Russell Wilson isn’t elevating a mediocre offense at this stage in his career. Expect to see rookie Jaxson Dart get some late-season starts and the Joe Schoen-Brian Daboll pairing to get their walking papers in a Giant overhaul in 2026.
NFC North
Packers 10-7
Green Bay was already a chic pick to win this division, and maybe more.
The Micah Parsons trade probably just clinched it.
The 3-time All-Pro edge could be the missing piece for a legacy team trying to advance to a Super Bowl for the first time in 15 years. The Packers haven’t had a double-digit sack player since 2020.
Parsons averages 13 sacks per season in a four-year career in which he’s made the Pro Bowl every season. I expect his addition to take Jeff Hafley’s defense to the next level, even without Jaire Alexander in the secondary.
I’m not yet sold on Jordan Love at quarterback but the offense needs only be in the top half of the league to complement a defense that last season ranked sixth in the NFL in both scoring and total defense.
Even before the Parsons deal, I had the Packers winning the division in a tiebreaker over the Lions and perhaps making a little noise in the playoffs.
Now, the sky’s the limit for a team that just made its most impactful offseason acquisition since Reggie White in 1993. Parsons may have come too late for me to adjust this win-loss total, but he’s right on time to turn Green Bay back into Titletown.
Lions 10-7
Detroit is in Super Bowl or bust mode … and this year just feels like a bust.
New offensive coordinator John Morton is keeping Ben Johnson’s potent offense largely intact, but both coordinators from the Lions’ juggernaut 2024 season left for head coaching jobs, four-time Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow retired (and is replaced, in part, by second-round rookie Tate Ratledge) and the injury-riddled defense from 2024 is already missing Ennis Rakestraw Jr. due to a season-ending shoulder injury.
The schedule may be tough, but it comes with the NFL’s best rest advantage of +13, including an NFL-record eight games with a rest edge over their opponent. That will help them contend for the division title but little more.
Bears 8-9
Perhaps among the biggest questions of the 2025 NFL season: Who really is Caleb Williams?
Case in point: The D.C. native landed in Tier 3 of the Athletic’s annual quarterback tiers, though he received five Tier 2 votes and (alarmingly) 15 Tier 4 votes. There may be no QB with more pressure this year than Williams.
Chicago spent early and often on offensive line help after Caleb Williams took 68 sacks as a rookie (the second-most in NFL history), but it hasn’t stopped him from having some lofty (and, in Bears history, unprecedented) goals for 2025.
The Bears make progress but not quite enough to make the playoffs in Year 1 of the Ben Johnson era.
Vikings 5-12
Minnesota will slide in 2025 for two reasons: J.J. McCarthy is basically a rookie after missing all of 2024 with a knee injury that seemed to prevent him from making bigger strides this year, and he won’t have Jordan Addison to throw to in the first month of the season while he serves a suspension.
Also, the schedule isn’t doing the Vikings any real favors. Already playing in a highly-competitive NFC North, Minnesota has to take a two-week European trip and face the NFC East and AFC North divisions this season. I expect a forgettable season.
NFC West
49ers 12-5
After years of being hamstrung by the schedule, San Francisco got a treat in its 17-game slate in 2025.
Trent Williams shows no signs of slowing down, but the young receiving corps is banged up heading into the season.
On defense, there’s questions along the D-line beyond Nick Bosa, so I expect the Niners to return to relevance, even if it’s not a return to Super Bowl contention.
Rams 10-7
L.A. has a rejuvenated Sean McVay, a 32-year-old Davante Adams joining an offense loaded with young talent, and an equally young, ascending defense.
The only reason I don’t have the Rams winning this division is because it feels like the beginning of the end of Matthew Stafford, who at 37, is dealing with an ailing back that doesn’t seem to be getting better anytime soon. The threat of Jimmy Garoppolo starting games is enough for me to downgrade the Rams a bit.
Seahawks 9-8
Seattle inexplicably decided to rebuild a passing offense that ranked eighth in the league in terms of yards last year and helped the team win 10 games in 2024. Unless the drafting of Jalen Milroe behind Sam Darnold is a reincarnation of 2012’s Matt Flynn-Russell Wilson situation, the Seahawks are a wild card contender, at best.
Cardinals 6-11
I don’t trust Kyler Murray (even with quality weapons around him), the defense is old and the division is too good. This might be it for Jonathan Gannon in Arizona.
NFC South
Bucs 9-8
Almost by default, Tampa keeps control of the NFC South.
In addition to Todd Bowles’ usually strong defense, Mike Evans found the fountain of youth, and he’s going for a record 12th straight 1,000-yard receiving season that I think he’ll get if Baker Mayfield’s resurgence continues.
Falcons 7-10
Atlanta’s offense will be driven by second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and I’m almost certain Bijan Robinson will be a fantasy football darling in 2025. But the defense is relying on a youth movement in the front seven (headlined by first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.), likely leading to some growing pains. The Falcons will fly right around .500 much of the year before a letdown and the pressure will really be on Raheem Morris to deliver in 2026.
Panthers 5-12
For the first time, Bryce Young is playing in the same offense in consecutive seasons, which is crucial to him playing his way into (or out of) the franchise QB role in Carolina.
That’s led to a level of confidence he’s not demonstrated in years past, but trading away Adam Thielen leaves a very young receiving corps without a strong on-field mentor. The Panthers defense is what keeps them below .500.
Saints 3-14
New Orleans, coming off its worst season since 2005, enters 2025 with Spencer Rattler as the starter on a team with perhaps the worst QB situation in the league. It’s gonna be hard to watch football in the Big Easy this year.
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