AFC North
Ravens 13-4
The 30th season of Ravens football promises to be one of Baltimore’s best.
All three coordinators return and 19 of the team’s 22 starters from the season-ending roster are back. Keaton Mitchell looks to be back to form after the 2023 knee injury, and figures to be the perfect speedy, change-of-pace X-factor for Derrick Henry running behind the least-expensive offensive line in the league.
On defense, the Jaire Alexander signing gives Baltimore the most formidable secondary in the league, but the two-time All-Pro only played in 34 of 68 games for the Packers the last four seasons, so health is a major concern.
Annual MVP candidate Lamar Jackson will remain among the top performers on a Ravens offense ranked first in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) in 2024. If Zach Orr’s defense can take another step forward, the Ravens look poised to fly all the way west to play in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.
Which they’d better, because Baltimore’s championship window is closing — fast.
Bengals 11-6
The key to Cincinnati’s season is how they start. The Bengals are 1-11 in the season’s first two weeks under Zach Taylor and over the last three seasons, Cincy is 5-10 in the first five weeks, then 25-10 the rest of the way.
This year, Taylor played his starters more in the preseason to try and halt another slow start and the schedule lends itself to correcting that (at Browns, vs. Jaguars the first two weeks) — but then again, this is the same team that lost their opener to the four-win Patriots last year.
In the preseason, the Bengals defense under first-year coordinator Al Golden looked to be just as problematic as it was under the departed Lou Anarumo last year, even with edges Trey Hendrickson and rookie Shemar Stewart paid and (somewhat) happy.
This will be another season of the defense holding back Joe Burrow and one of the league’s most prolific offenses from getting back to the Super Bowl.
Steelers 10-7
Pittsburgh just had the least Steeler season I’ve ever seen.
Historically a team that doesn’t make a ton of high-profile trades and free agent signings (let alone both in the same offseason), the Steelers added Jonnu Smith, Jalen Ramsey and DK Metcalf via trades and signed Aaron Rodgers to play his swan song season in the Steel City.
Though it’s a move basically no one wanted, it’s the only one that keeps Mike Tomlin in a position to extend his unprecedented streak of non-losing seasons to 19.
Ramsey essentially replaces Minkah Fitzpatrick in the secondary, a move that gives the Steelers four key defensive starters aged 30 or older. The D should hold up in 2025, but probably not much longer.
Considering the history of 41-year-old quarterbacks, I expect another rough end to the season in Pittsburgh (they face only one team in the final 10 weeks expected to finish with eight or fewer wins), leaving the Steelers at the mercy of tiebreakers with the Chargers and Patriots for a wild card spot.
Browns 2-15
There’s an old NFL adage that if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any.
So what about a team that, at one point, had five?
The 40-year-old journeyman Joe Flacco is the starting quarterback after being deemed the best option of the whopping five in Cleveland during training camp, including rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
Unsigned rookie Quinshon Judkins is probably looking at a suspension for off-field trouble, something the Browns have had no problem courting this offseason.
Assuming Myles Garrett has a career year after trading a possible ticket out of Cleveland for (at the time) the richest contract for a defensive player, Jim Schwartz’s defense should be more than good enough to keep the Browns in games. Just don’t expect many wins.
AFC East
Bills 12-5
Buffalo is the only NFL team that opened as favorites in all 17 of their 2025 regular season games, and for good reason. Josh Allen’s coming off his first (sympathy) MVP award and has ascending talent around him, such as Khalil Shakir, James Cook and Keon Coleman.
I’m not sure how much the injury-prone Joey Bosa has left in the tank at age 30, but the Bills defense should be good enough to keep them atop the division. That said, the Super Bowl window in Western New York is closing quickly.
Patriots 10-7
New England is expected to be this year’s Washington Commanders under former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel, who brings home his violent style of defense that should help their young Christians (Gonzalez and Barmore). Even with the release of Jabrill Peppers, this should be an underrated unit.
On offense, Josh McDaniels is back for a third tour of duty as the coordinator, this time tasked with the development of second-year QB Drake Maye. The retooled offensive line is pretty old and the skill positions aren’t exactly top notch, but in a top-heavy division, the Pats are clearly second-best with a chance to develop into more in the future.
Dolphins 7-10
The Miami Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game in nearly a quarter century, last tasting postseason victory back when Lamar Smith carried a Jay Fiedler-quarterbacked team to the divisional round.
Whether Tua feels it or not, he’s under pressure to get Miami to the next level in 2025. The only way it happens is if he plays a full season for just the second time in his career.
The Dolphins defense overhauled the secondary, including Jalen Ramsey — the fourth team captain from last season to exit the squad. That corner depth was further troubled by the season-ending injury to Kader Kohou.
Tua probably can’t overcome the suspect (at best) offensive line and the defense takes a step back to extend Miami’s playoff drought and put head coach Mike McDaniel firmly on the hot seat … if not on the unemployment line.
Jets 7-10
There has been an ex-Jets QB reclamation project for three years running — from Geno Smith to Baker Mayfield to Sam Darnold — but could 2025 be the year there’s a QB rebirth for Gang Green?
The Jets think Justin Fields can be that, and it’s his show on Broadway despite his lack of a real opportunity in Chicago or Pittsburgh.
Gang Green’s largest obstacle — owner Woody Johnson — appears to be getting out of the way, but we here in Washington know that tends not to last with toxic ownership. New coach Aaron Glenn will do well with the defense, but he can only do so much.
AFC West
Chiefs 12-5
Kansas City’s had a quiet offseason but the Chiefs remain compelling.
KC will be the first team in NFL history to open a season with five prime-time games in the first eight weeks of the season. Patrick Mahomes is still must-see TV, even if he’ll play the first six games of the season without top wide receiver Rashee Rice (suspension).
With better protection from his offensive line (the Chiefs drafted offensive tackle Josh Simmons in the first round), Mahomes will return the offense among the NFL’s best, while the underrated defense will again threaten to force the AFC to come through Arrowhead to unseat the three-time defending conference champions.
Broncos 11-6
Much like Washington, Denver found stability in a rookie quarterback, as Bo Nix led the Broncos to the playoffs as the 14th different starter since Peyton Manning retired.
Denver is a popular pick to put a stop to Kansas City’s nine-year reign over the division, which I don’t disagree with after the additions of former 49ers Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga on defense and the Evan Engram signing to give Nix a more reliable target in the middle.
The Broncos will come close to unseating the Chiefs but I think they’re still a year away from actually doing it.
Chargers 10-7
As expected, Jim Harbaugh’s trademark quick turnaround took hold in Los Angeles, leading the Chargers from 5-12 afterthought to 11-win playoff team in just one season.
But in 2025, star left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for the season, a huge blow to Justin Herbert in year two with standout WR Ladd McConkey. The run-first Chargers drafted Omarion Hampton with the hope that he’ll form a strong 1-2 punch with veteran Najee Harris.
Expect to see the defense get stronger with youngsters Daiyan Henley and Tuli Tuipulotu, especially if Khalil Mack still has a lot left in the tank at age 34.
LA’s surge to the playoffs will depend on tiebreakers with the Steelers and Patriots.
Raiders 6-11
Fun fact: Pete Carroll’s addition makes the AFC West the winningest division of coaches in NFL history (yes, including the 1983 NFC East, which included Hall of Famers Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells).
Carroll brings to the desert his trademark enthusiasm, complete with the promise of winning. But I don’t see that happening right away.
The Raiders have, by far, the worst rest differential in the league (-19 days), which will be especially taxing on a defense missing Christian Wilkins following his bizarre release.
But the Vegas version of Thunder and Lightning should prove to be a strong complement to Geno Smith and Brock Bowers in the passing game. So while the Silver and Black aren’t all the way back in a highly competitive division, they’ll be fun to watch.
AFC South
Texans 12-5
Nick Caley replaces Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator, so who knows what to expect from C.J. Stroud.
The Texans were held back by a bad offensive line in 2024, and inexplicably traded the unit’s best piece (Laremy Tunsil) to Washington. The receiving corps added Christian Kirk to help offset the loss of Tank Dell to that gruesome leg injury last season. Joe Mixon might be out for the season, so Houston may have a problem if Nick Chubb has aged out of effectiveness.
So it’s pretty much all on Stroud, who can cement his status as an elite QB if he can be the answer to all the questions surrounding the offense.
Another C.J., Gardner Johnson, brings his competitive energy to a Houston defense that could use it on the back end. If the interior line can stuff the run while the Will Anderson-Danielle Hunter tandem hunts opposing QBs, the Texans will run away with this division and perhaps take a game or two in the playoffs.
Jaguars 8-9
New head coach Liam Cohen comes across state from Tampa to Jacksonville, and weird intro aside, I question whether it’s a good fit.
Trevor Lawrence enters his fifth season with just as many questions as to whether the former No. 1 overall pick can lead a franchise to prominence. He’s playing behind perhaps the league’s worst offensive line (though I like the addition of former Ravens Swiss army knife Patrick Mekari) and Brenton Strange is a question mark at tight end.
I expect the other two phases of the game to keep the Jaguars competitive: The defense has quality edge rushers and figures to get more production from two-way star rookie Travis Hunter than the offense will, plus Cam Little’s 70-yard field goal was the talk of the preseason, giving the Jags another potential weapon should the offense take a while to gel.
On a team of youth (43-year-old defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile is the oldest among the Jags’ coordinators, head coach and GM), there will be growing pains and signs of hope for the future — and little else.
Colts 7-10
After losing longtime owner Jim Irsay, Indianapolis is rallying around its late owner.
Maybe that provides an additional boost to a team that saw Daniel Jones’ “productive spring” vault him into the starting QB role over former 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson. Jones is a fine backup but it’s hard to imagine him thriving as a starter beyond just handing off to Jonathan Taylor and finding rookie tight end Tyler Warren over the middle.
Lou Anarumo has landed with the Colts after his Bengals defense was the reason Cincy did little celebrating in 2024 despite having a historically great offense. That overhauled unit will struggle, and with the Colts’ new ownership structure, 2026 may spell the end of GM Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen’s time in Indy.
Titans 4-13
Cam Ward is the first No. 1 overall pick to not get a prime-time game in his rookie season since Myles Garrett in 2017, and the first QB picked first without one since Cam Newton in 2011.
It’s a good thing Ward has an “F it mentality” because the only hope for the Titans is his belief this is a top 10 offense despite the lack of playmakers around him and a defense that’s enigmatic (ranked second in total defense in 2024 but third-worst in scoring defense at 27.1 points allowed per game).
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