CLEVELAND, Ohio — Browns quarterback Joe Flacco turns 41 in December, and his Cleveland teammates won three games last season. To foresee another fairy tale playoff run, you might need Flacco’s reading glasses.
But fans can find evidence if they squint hard enough.
Anybody can predict a six- or seven-win season from a team stuck between re-building for the future and retaining buy-in from its talented veterans. Boooooring.
It takes real courage to count 10 victories on a tough 2025 schedule.
Ahead of Sunday’s Week 1 game against the Bengals, I invite Browns fans to join a bold man in believing:
Cleveland can make the playoffs this season.
This is the first of two season prediction columns where I highlight the high- and low-end outcomes for the Browns.
We’re starting the week positive because it’s a better way to live life. Why choose misery?
Allow me to share the vision, which begins with the Browns defense returning to its peak form from two years ago. Last year, Cleveland ranked 27th in scoring defense, 23rd in yards per play allowed and 18th in in expected points added (EPA) per play.
What the heck happened to the elite unit we watched one year earlier?
*"*I think there were lapses in focus, lapses in discipline when we needed to be sharper (last year), whether that was in here or on the field," Garrett explained last month. “I think that it kind of leaks out. How you are every day is how you are when you need to be that person.
“I think, how we’ve tightened up the ship and we’ve sharpened everything, I think we’ll continue to get better. And we’ll show not only glimpses, but that we were and are that 2023 team.”
Recent history agrees. Over the last 10 seasons, eight of the defenses to rank first in EPA, as Cleveland did two years ago, ranked top 10 or better in the same category one year later.
Our only outlier besides Cleveland is the 2019 Patriots, who struggled in 2020 (22nd in EPA) before retooling a top five defense in 2021.
Basically, every defense that reaches Cleveland’s peak repeats an elite performance, eventually. The 2025 Browns are thinner than their 2023 counterparts, especially after losing cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. to a torn Achilles in training camp.
But Cleveland still has one of the league’s best pass rushers (Garrett), cornerbacks (Denzel Ward) and defensive coordinators (Jim Schwartz). General manager Andrew Berry spent his first two draft picks adding talent (defensive tackle Mason Graham and linebacker Carson Schwesinger) to Schwartz’s unit
And this year’s defense won’t be handicapped by the league’s worst scoring offense.
Last year’s failure fell at the quarterback’s feet. During seven starts last season, Deshaun Watson at or near league worst in most major passing categories. Since arriving in 2022, he’s played nothing like the three-time Pro Bowler that Cleveland traded for.
Now he’s gone, at least until he recovers from a second torn Achilles tendon. And I’m left to wonder: What happens if Cleveland replaces a putrid passing attack with a competent one?
In 18 full games with Watson as starter, coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense produced 18.9 points per game over three seasons, which would rank 25th in the NFL last year; and two games with 250 pass yards (or one every nine games).
In 61 games with Flacco, Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston and even P.J. Walker, Stefanski’s offense scored 23.1 points per game, which would tie the Chiefs’ 12th-ranked offense last year. The Browns played 20 games with 250 pass yards, or one every 3.1 games. And won games with all six of those starters.
Essentially, Stefanski minus Watson (and non-NFL arms like Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jeff Driskel) equals points and productive quarterback play. Flacco has proven it before. And this Cleveland roster boasts a healthier offensive line than the makeshift group he played with two years ago.
I don’t believe Flacco can replicate his 2023 run, during which the Browns averaged 28.6 points per game and 5.9 yards per play over five games without their starting offensive tackles. But I don’t think he needs to.
Just stick to Stefanski’s standard, and Cleveland will have a chance. Fix the defense, too, and fans might recognize a playoff roster.
One more set of numbers: Over the last five seasons, 26 teams have ranked top 10 in defensive EPA and top 12 in scoring offense during the same season. Twenty-five of those teams made the playoffs. The ‘23 Browns were one of them. And the 26th team (2023 New Orleans Saints) finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs due to a tiebreaker.
How can Cleveland re-join this group? Simple. Replace the broken quarterback (check), reclaim your defensive identity (check in progress), then find a pair of readers.
The Browns’ playoff path looks clear through the right lens.
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