Just two days into training camp, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks found himself getting frustrated. After a pass breakup in the back of the end zone, cornerback Rejzohn Wright celebrated the play, taunted the veteran and engaged in just enough trash talk to get under Cooks’ skin.
So, in the sweltering heat, Cooks threw a punch.
A kerfuffle broke out, with teammates quickly intervening to break up the action. Later, after tensions died down, Cooks revealed he had another reason for starting the fight.
“Everybody’s doubting us,” Cooks said, “so that’s the type of fire we need.”
Doubting the 2025 Saints is a popular trend these days.
Read any offseason prediction, listen to any football podcast or check any gambling odds and the Saints are predicted to be one of the worst — if not the outright worst — teams in the NFL.
ESPN ranked the Saints' projected starting lineup as the league’s worst, and the franchise was dead last in the outlet’s future power rankings poll that examines every team’s three-year outlook.
According to oddsmakers, the Saints not only have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl but their win total of 4½ wins also is the team’s lowest since before 1989, the last year records are available. At DraftKings, the Saints are the most-bet team to finish with the fewest regular-season wins — and 91% of the handle has been on the Saints to have under 5½ wins.
External expectations aren’t high for coach Kellen Moore’s first season. But worst team? Are the Saints really going to be that bad? Is it going to get so ugly that paper bags are broken out at the Caesars Superdome again?
Factoring in a young quarterback room, a rookie head coach and a roster in transition, the reasons for pessimism are easy to see. But to gain a deeper understanding of the situation, The Times-Picayune spoke to a wide range of experts on why — or why not — the Saints could be in for a brutal season when they begin Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
The outlook wasn’t rosy.
“I think they’re going to be bad,” said Seth Walder, who specializes in sports analytics for ESPN. “I don’t have a ton of optimism about this team. Even when you look at it, if things go right, I think the best thing they have going for them is the division they play in, the schedule that they face.
“But man, I don’t — it’s hard to feel optimistic about this team.”
The quarterback
The biggest reason people don’t believe in the Saints centers on the most important position in sports.
Johnny Avello, lead oddsmaker for DraftKings, said the sportsbook’s line for the Saints suffered a two-game swing in terms of their projected win total (from 6½ to 4½) after Derek Carr unexpectedly retired in May with a shoulder injury.
“It certainly was a big adjustment,” Avello said.
Carr’s decision left the Saints with a quarterback competition between Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough — with neither option inspiring confidence to the outside view. Rattler won the job coming out of camp, and the second-year quarterback will look to get into the win column after going 0-6 last year as a starter.
“I don’t think you can be overly enthused about it,” Robert Mays of The Athletic said. “When you’re put into a position like this where you have a certain plan of how it was going to go, and then you’re forced to adopt a different plan, the answer is never going to be very good. It’s never going to be something you’re excited about.”
The Saints are turning to Rattler initially because he seemed a step faster than Shough throughout camp. Moore praised Rattler’s ability to balance his aggressiveness with sound decision-making. He also said Rattler is a better player after undergoing a “challenging” rookie season.
Still, conventional thought suggests Shough will find his way into the lineup at some point this season so the Saints fully can evaluate the player they drafted 40th overall.
Even if Shough does play, Mays pointed to the “checkered history” of second-round quarterbacks as another reason to taper expectations. For every Carr and Andy Dalton to emerge as solid starters out of the round, there’s a Will Levis. Drew Brees is the outlier, not the norm.
“Whether it’s Rattler or Shough, I think you’re in the conversation for worst starter in the league,” Walder said.
Not every pundit views the quarterback situation as hopeless. Louis Riddick, a former safety and current ESPN analyst who was also a front office executive for two NFL teams, said there shouldn’t be a rush to judge Shough. He said Moore has the coaching background to help his quarterbacks succeed.
Riddick said even with the unknowns, he’s “more optimistic” than most on the Saints.
“Kellen — being so even keel like he is, having played the position at a super-high level when he was in college and having tutored these guys in the league like he has — I think if you’re a young quarterback, you’re like, ‘That’s exactly what I want,’ ” Riddick said.
The offensive line
The Saints essentially are making three big bets along the offensive line.
They are counting on first-round rookie Kelvin Banks to pan out at left tackle, Trevor Penning to benefit from a switch to guard, and 2024 first-rounder Taliese Fuaga to thrive by moving back to right tackle, the spot he dominated at college.
“The floor is reasonably high,” said Brandon Thorn, an offensive line expert. “I think the talent is pretty good. And then their ceiling, I think they have a lot of room to grow.”
“I look at the tackles and I think, ‘Here’s a real swing point for this team,’ ” Walder said.
Walder said rookie tackles, even those picked in the top 10, are often “below average” starters, pointing to how even Andrew Thomas of the New York Giants struggled at first before developing into an All-Pro. Even Fuaga, who left the Saints encouraged by his debut season, ranked 57th out of qualifying tackles with a pass-block win rate of 84%, according to ESPN.
Could Banks be the exception? His preseason was promising. He shut down premier pass rushers such as Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker of Jacksonville. According to Pro Football Focus, the 21-year-old didn’t allow a pressure on 31 preseason pass-rushing snaps.
Depth is a concern. Dillon Radunz is already starting at left guard in place of an injured Penning, whose turf toe injury may keep him out of Sunday’s opener. The Saints also have traded for two backups and claimed another guard off waivers after injuries hit their depth hard in the preseason.
Riddick said he’s concerned about the offensive line, in part because he wonders whether it can protect the quarterback and make his life easier by being a factor in the run game. The O-line has to help New Orleans avoid being one-dimensional, he said.
“They’ve got to find a way to make that unit be a top-10 unit,” Riddick said. “They just have to. Otherwise, you have no shot, especially with a quarterback situation that’s as uncertain as theirs.”
The defense
The hiring of Brandon Staley as defensive coordinator has been generally well-received.
Defensive linemen have raved about the “freedom” his scheme allows. Defensive backs believe Staley’s use of match-zone principles better suits their strengths. And pundits see Staley as a sharp defensive mind, dating to the 2020 season when he coordinated the league’s No. 1 defense with the Los Angeles Rams.
But does Staley have the pieces to execute this system?
“I just don’t know how many building blocks this team has defensively that are also suited for this defense,” Mays said.
The Saints invested a significant amount of resources this offseason to retool their defense. They traded for Davon Godchaux, giving Staley a big nose tackle. They signed safety Justin Reid (three years, $31.5 million) and re-signed edge rusher Chase Young (three years, $51 million) to notable contracts. Five of the team’s nine draft selections were on defense.
Safety Julian Blackmon was a late addition after Tyrann Mathieu retired.
But the Saints have seven — eight if the defense opens in a base look — of the same 11 defensive starters returning from last year. That was a unit that ranked 30th in yards allowed, 27th against the pass and 31st against the run.
“Chase Young is a solid pass rusher, but you’re not really expecting a ton elsewhere,” Walder said. “It’s pretty hard to look at this defense and feel like, ‘Oh wow, that’s going to be super disruptive to opposing quarterbacks.’ ”
Mays said the defense is in transition in scheme and personnel.
Last year, according to FTN Fantasy, the Saints had the NFL’s fourth-oldest defense in terms of snap-weighted age. This season, cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry and defensive lineman Bryan Bresee are the only starters under 26 — unless rookies like Quincy Riley, Danny Stutsman and Vernon Broughton can become starters.
That experience is not necessarily a negative. Just look at past Saints defenses that were considered old and dominated the league. But age is still a focal point given the unit’s struggles last year and Staley’s takeover of the group.
“It’s undeniably going to feel a little bit uneven, and it’s not even close to being the full or final picture of what it’s supposed to (be),” Mays said. “It’s a group where you can get by, but it’s nothing that you can get excited about.”
Other factors
Are the Saints really going to be the worst team in the league?
The answer depends on other teams, too. The Cleveland Browns have as much — if not more — of an unsettled quarterback situation as the Saints, seemingly putting them in the mix for the No. 1 pick. The New York Giants, New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts have murky answers at quarterback, even if pundits see their rosters as better than the Saints.
Still, how often does the team thought to be the league’s worst actually end up finishing as such? It’s a mixed bag. Walder said three of the last five teams that started the season ranked last in ESPN’s Football Power Index finished there: The 2024 Carolina Panthers, the 2022 Chicago Bears and the 2020 Jaguars.
But Walder called that an “unlucky” sample size. And even in that case, those ranked last in FPI didn’t always land the No. 1 pick. Last year’s Panthers, for instance, finished 5-12, earning the eighth pick.
The betting market isn’t always a guarantee, either. According to Pro Football Reference, those picked with the lowest over/under win total ended up with the worst record only twice — the 2020 Jaguars and the 2016 Browns — over the last 10 drafts.
Every so often, a team blows expectations out of the water. Just ask the Saints.
The 2006 season, with Brees and Sean Payton arriving and leading New Orleans to the NFC championship game, is a prime example. But don’t overlook 2000. Jim Haslett, also a first-time head coach, led the Saints to a worst-to-first finish.
“Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle,” Saints general manager Mickey Loomis said, noting the importance of chemistry and buying in. “Teams can do that. That all happens during the course of the offseason and training camp. And then you have to stay healthy, too. Listen, health is a really important factor.”
The Saints were hit so hard with injuries last year that perhaps New Orleans’ talent is overlooked. Mays, despite his lack of optimism on the season, said he sees the offense’s "infrastructure" as underrated. Walder said he feels people have “forgotten” how good Chris Olave is after several concussions kept him out for most of last year.
On paper, the Saints also have one of the easiest schedules, as their opponents combined for a .419 win percentage last season. Avello said that, plus an open NFC South, could be why the Saints exceed expectations.
The Saints mainly have avoided setting expectations. Loomis, who often resists the idea the franchise is rebuilding, did acknowledge his team is in “transition” with a first-year coach and new quarterback. He said he sees a difference between “expectations” and “aspirations,” the latter of which still involves striving to win the division and as many games as possible.
But what does Loomis make of so many people being down on the Saints?
“I don’t pay attention to that,” Loomis said. “That’s other people, most of them unqualified, making those comments.”