If you readers know anything about me, you know that I love a nice wager. Also, if you know anything about me, you know that I’m willing to wager on almost anything. For every conventional wager on a college football or NFL game, I’ve placed a sizable wager on the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest. For every MLB game on which I dip my toe, I’ll cobble together a parlay for predicted Oscar winners.
Perhaps no “unconventional” wager piques my interest, though, quite like wagering on people’s employment, or perhaps more appropriately, their potential UNEMPLOYMENT. This brings me to one of my favorite wagers of the NFL season — who will be the first NFL head coach fired?
The crazy thing about this wager is that the favorite rarely hits. In the last five seasons, these have been the winning ticket cashers:
2020: BILL O’BRIEN, Texans
2021: URBAN MEYER, Jaguars
2022: MATT RHULE, Panthers
2023: FRANK REICH, Panthers
2024: ROBERT SALEH, Jets
Of those five, the only favorite (or near favorite) that hit was Rhule in 2022. The other four were all fairly long shots. The one thing they all had in common was some level of internal franchise dysfunction (O’Brien, Saleh), a train wreck owner (Rhule, Reich), or massive personal, self destructive issues (Meyer).
So, if we are picking a winner, it’s less about schedule and matchups, and more about finding (a) a potentially bad team with (b) a rotting culture and rotten ownership. Before I lay out my four best bets, here are the full odds:
Mike McDaniel (MIA) 2/1
Brian Daboll (NYG) 4/1
Shane Steichen (IND) 7/1
Dave Canales (CAR) 15/2
Kevin Stefanski (CLE) 15/2
Jonathan Gannon (ARI) 8/1
Zac Taylor (CIN) 9/1
Brian Callahan (TEN) 18/1
Raheem Morris (ATL) 18/1
Todd Bowles (TB) 20/1
Mike Tomlin (PIT) 28/1
Kyle Shanahan (SF) 33/1
Kevin O'Connell (MIN) 40/1
Matt LaFleur (GB) 40/1
Sean McVay (LA) 40/1
DeMeco Ryans (HOU) 50/1
Sean McDermott (BUF) 60/1
Mike Macdonald (SEA) 66/1
Sean Payton (DEN) 66/1
John Harbaugh (BAL) 75/1
Ben Johnson (CHI) 100/1
Brian Schottenheimer (DAL) 100/1
Dan Campbell (DET) 100/1
Dan Quinn (WAS) 100/1
Jim Harbaugh (LAC) 100/1
Aaron Glenn (NYJ) 150/1
Kellen Moore (NO) 150/1
Liam Coen (JAX) 150/1
Pete Carroll (LV) 200/1
Mike Vrabel (NE) 250/1
Andy Reid (KC) 500/1
Nick Sirianni (PHI) 500/1
Okay, so let’s lay out four decent selections:
MIKE McDANIEL, Dolphins, 2/1
The favorite deserves to be the favorite. Listen to McDaniel speak, and you’d think that Stephen Ross has been letting a stoned teenager run the team for their last three years. Over the course of the offseason, McDaniel has had Three Hill agitate for a trade and Jalen Ramsey successfully lobby to get traded. The team is widely viewed as a punchline around the league for being soft. McDaniel’s time has run out in South Beach.
DAVE CANALES, Panthers, 15/2
Credit to Canales, as he got a nice stretch of football out of QB Bryce Young down the stretch last season, easily the best Young has played during his two seasons in the NFL. However, if I’m putting together an article touting multiple best bets, how can I not include the head coach on the team who’s owner has given us the winner in two out of the last three seasons?
KEVIN STEFANSKI, Browns, 15/2
This whole situation is ripe for people to lose their jobs. After the whole Deshaun Watson experience ended in catastrophe, the Browns have now created a second QB controversy by drafting two rookie quarterbacks in the same draft class, with one of them being Shedeur Sanders. Oh, and neither of the rookies will start, because the Browns signed 40-year-old Joe Flacco, who stinks. This feels like a “let’s just blow the whole thing up and start over” situation, potentially, and Kevin Stefanski would for sure get smoked under this scenario.
BRIAN CALLAHAN, Titans, 18/1
I can’t just cherry pick off the top of these odds, so I’ll dip slightly lower in the 18/1 range on this one. The rumor mill in the offseason was saying that the Titans almost moved on from Callahan after one season. As the former OC with the Bengals, the hope was that Callahan would fix second year QB Will Levis. That didn’t come close to happening, so if rookie Cam Ward gets off to a slow start, perhaps Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk decides to head off any long term damage to the rookie by moving on from Callahan.
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