The Manning mystique took a massive hit in Columbus following Arch Manning’s brutal debut as the Longhorns’ signal-caller against Ohio State. The unforeseen disastrous outing sent his 2026 NFL Draft stock tumbling faster than Quinn Ewers’ fumble.
Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) drops back to pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) drops back to pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
The Texas quarterback was once seen as the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft. But after completing just 17 of 30 passes for 170 yards in a 14–7 season-opening loss to the defending champion, he has slipped to fourth in several draft projections.
Arch Manning’s Draft Stock Crashes as LSU’s Nussmeier Steals #1 Draft Spot
Manning looked overwhelmed against Buckeyes’ elite defense. He just managed 38 passing yards through three quarters before padding his stats in garbage time. This validates scouts’ concerns from a quarterback who’s lived off bloodline hype rather than proven production.
Now he is under huge pressure with multiple draft analysts immediately shuffling their big boards. After his nightmare in Columbus, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier took control of the musical chairs of top QBs on draft boards.
Texas QB Arch Manning is NO LONGER the favorite to be the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and has now slipped to 4th after a rough performance against OSU🔻
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier and SC QB LaNorris Sellers are now the favorites to be drafted first according to @Kalshi 💰 pic.twitter.com/9d37oqHyiB
— Football Forever (@fballforeverhq) August 31, 2025
Nussmeier rose to co-favorite status alongside Penn State’s Drew Allar at various sportsbooks, with both sitting at +350 odds to go first overall in 2026.
The former four-star recruit from Georgia showed the skills of a franchise quarterback, making quick decisions and hitting tight throws. Manning, by contrast, struggled with poise and accuracy in his first game as a starter.
South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers also gained significant ground with his dual-threat ability. Scouts are comparing the 6-foot-3 signal-caller’s physical tools to a “Jalen Hurts-plus” prototype.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik continues rising on draft boards with his polished pocket presence. He is constantly offering the kind of plug-and-play readiness for teams looking to win now.
With all these shuffles, Manning’s tumble to fourth represents one of the most dramatic single-game draft stock collapses in recent memory. However, the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, believes the rough debut might actually be the best thing for him.
Tom Brady Thinks Manning’s Rough Start is Actually a Blessing
The Seven-time Super Bowl champion offered a counterpoint on Manning’s current situation. Speaking to “Pro Football Focus,” he suggested the adversity could actually benefit the young quarterback’s development in the long run.
“So, you know, I think there’s a blessing and a curse in some of it. The curse is that a lot of people pile on. The blessing is I don’t believe there needs to be resilience built up in the quarterback as well,” Bradysaid.
The GOAT quarterback emphasized that rocky beginnings often forge stronger competitors. He has drawn a real comparison from his own journey, which is a legendary tale of becoming an NFL legend. from a sixth-round pick.
“Even though he didn’t have his best game today and they lost, if he uses this to his advantage, Arch, he’s going to be tougher for it and he’s going to have a better next game because of it,” he added.
Manning now faces a crossroads where he can either crumble or use this humbling experience to build championship-level resilience. With the expectations tied to the Manning name already familiar to him, it will be interesting to see how quickly he can recover his draft stock.