When it’s all said and done, Justin Jefferson will likely break virtually every Minnesota Vikings’ receiving record. J.J. McCarthy will have the next decade to have a go at some passing records. And, hey, Kevin O’Connell may even let Will Reichard launch a kick from 70 one day.
Still, there’s one very important record that may fall this season, one that has had much more of an impact than any others, and yet, the Vikings may just break it by happenstance.
Turnovers, both forced on defense and given up by the offense, are typically a solid indicator of a good team. For O’Connell, it’s been the indicator. The Vikings have gone 30-3 in games where they had an even or better turnover margin. In games where they’ve lost the turnover battle: 4-14. It doesn’t take a mathematician to see a strong correlation there.
Last year, the Vikings led the league in turnovers forced on defense with 33, and also gave the ball away 21 times on offense. In all, it led them to a franchise-best plus-12 turnover differential.
Despite the success of a 14-3 season, there’s still massive room for improvement along that front. No, there’s no giant, gold turnover chain. Culver’s isn’t offering free butterburgers for every interception. Still, Vikings may end up with a league-leading, franchise-leading, or galaxy-leading turnover differential as a simple byproduct of playing their 2025 brand of football.
Offensively, turning the ball over ultimately comes down to quarterback play. Running backs and receivers also fumble at times, but really, interceptions and strip sacks are where the numbers start to add up.
In recent years, the Vikings employed a Mr. Kirk Cousins, who averaged 13 turnovers per year with the Vikings. His four fumbles lost on average per season were largely thanks to the barrage of defensive linemen who Minnesota’s interior offensive line constantly let batter him. It was hard to win the turnover battle when the quarterback was getting killed faster than hope and happiness for a Twins fan. So the Vikings went out and did something for McCarthy that they never did for Cousins: brought in a fancy, new interior offensive line.
McCarthy only threw 11 interceptions on 713 pass attempts at Michigan and will hopefully continue that type of ball protection in the air. While he will inevitably throw some bad picks here and there, he won’t become Jameis Winston. He just won’t.
The Vikings have a strong receiving corps and a newly revamped running game that Kevin O’Connell will rely on heavily. Now, potentially with a top offensive line with the additions of Will Fries and Ryan Kelly, there’s little reason for McCarthy to experience excessive quarterback hits that lead to quarterback fumbles. Between the balanced offense and a strong line, there’s a very real world where McCarthy has single-digit turnovers in 2025.
On the defensive side of the ball, turnovers come down to a lot of luck. Fortunately for the Vikings, they have a coach who makes his own luck. Brian Flores’ defense led the league in turnovers forced in 2024, and was the only one to force at least one turnover in every game of the season.
His unmatched pressure and unique, chaotic schemes force offenses into making bad decisions. Minnesota’s tenacity and, sure, at times luck, powered them to a league-leading 24 interceptions that quickly put the ball back in the hands of the offense. Still, only the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles averaged more points off turnovers than the Vikings.
Still, Jonathan Greenard made it clear this summer that they are constantly striving for more, and seems more ready than ever to break some records.
“I always like to say, ‘Nobody cares about last year,’ but we also understand what we did,” said Greenard. “It’s not like we’re just going to keep hanging our hat on it – ‘Oh, we did this last year!’ – but don’t switch anything up, do the same things that we did last year, do the same things with the same mindset, but just add a little bit more to it. Like, yeah, we were No. 1, but why not be No. 1 with a larger margin? Like, why not?”
So, while the Vikings may not strive to set turnover margin records in 2025, their roster build, a balanced offense, and a defense led by a madman may just lead them there by chance. It’s easy to say that whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game, but the point is that the team isn’t making everything about that.
Of course, turnovers on both sides are emphasized. However, the Vikings are mostly playing their brand of football with their group of players and letting the chips fall where they may. It just so happens that those chips might come with a winning ticket.