One of the biggest storylines surrounding the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2025 is whether Trevor Lawrence can bounce back and live up to the massive contract extension he signed last year. All signs point toward No. 16 pulling it off, but an NFL analyst isn't convinced that he will.
Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report put together an All-overpaid NFL team for the 2025 season. Deshaun Watson took the cake at quarterback, but Lawrence got an honorable mention because his deal doesn't match his production from the past two seasons. Below's the skinny.
"There were three other quality options here, including Lawrence, Dak Prescott ($60 million per season over four years) and Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1 million per season over four)," Gagnon wrote. "All three rank among the six highest-paid players in the game despite consistently falling short."
Gagnon continued, "But at least Prescott has at times played at a superstar level. In fact, he was MVP runner-up just two years ago. And he's helped the Cowboys get to the playoffs on a handful of occasions. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa has had his struggles with injuries and big-game performances but has put up triple-digit passer ratings in three consecutive campaigns."
Later, Gagnon points out that the Jags have yet to reach the 10-win mark with Lawrence under center, adding his passer rating of 90.6 ranks 20th among 23 qualifying quarterbacks dating back to 2022.
Related: Trevor Lawrence leads the list of Jags overreactions for the 2025 season
Trevor Lawrence will prove the Jaguars made the right call with his deal
If you spend the whole day shuffling words around, you can make anything sound horrible, and that's the case with Brad Gagnon's argument. Sure, Trevor Lawrence didn't play like a top-15 quarterback in 2024, but you have to look at the whole picture.
For starters, Lawrence hasn't had the best supporting cast or adequate coaching the past two years. Sure, he needs to show that he can stay healthy — that's on him — but it's hard to succeed when you don't have much help around you.
Leaving Lawrence's play aside, the five-year, $275 million contract looks much better once you delve into the details. Granted, he's already gotten a guaranteed massive signing bonus that makes it nearly impossible to release him without significant cap repercussions because it's spread over the next few years.
That said, the extension truly kicks in until 2026, and his cap hits the next three years are relatively manageable. It's not until 2029 that Lawrence has a cap charge of $78.5 million. By then, the cap ceiling will have had a noticeable increase. But even if the Jags want a bit of wiggle room, they could either restructure Lawrence's contract or add future years to the deal. Either way, the contract gives Jacksonville plenty of flexibility.
But for the sake of the argument, let's say you don't find the contract appealing. What were the alternatives? As it is, the demand for competent quarterbacks outweighs the supply, and the only reasonable option the Jags would've had was letting Lawrence's rookie deal play out and looking for a replacement in free agency and the draft. But that would've come with a couple of downsides.
The first one was that there weren't any enticing options in this year's draft, or any good free agents. On the other hand, if the Jaguars had wanted to re-sign in 2026, they would've probably had to fork out more money, because the market will only increase and there's a chance Lawrence will rebound and play like a top-10 quarterback this upcoming season.
Of course, Trevor Lawrence has to play better to make the contract look great. He's in a position to do so under Liam Coen's guidance and with an improved supporting cast. So don't be shocked if his inclusion on this list turns out to be undeserved by the midpoint of the season.
Here are other Jaguars stories you may also like: