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Arsenal have stormed to the top of the 2025/26 Premier League title predictions, according to the latest Opta supercomputer update.
The analytics giant’s model, which simulates the season 10,000 times, now gives Mikel Arteta’s men a 54.5% chance of winning the league, their strongest position at this stage of any campaign under the Spaniard.
The new data, released on Monday morning, reflects both Arsenal’s blistering form and the struggles of their title rivals after eight rounds of matches. The Gunners currently lead the table with 19 points, having secured six wins, one draw, and just one defeat. Their latest result, a hard-fought 1–0 win at Fulham, further solidified their momentum.
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Liverpool, the defending champions, have slipped to third with 15 points after suffering four consecutive losses in all competitions, including a 2–1 defeat to Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday. Manchester City sit second with 16 points, though Opta’s model predicts only a 17.3% likelihood of them finishing first, a notable drop compared to Arsenal’s commanding odds.
Chances of winning the Premier League title according to Opta Probability:
1️⃣ 51.74% – Arsenal
2️⃣ 21.61% – Liverpool
3️⃣ 16.70% – Man City pic.twitter.com/lH3kcLsPE1
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The Gunners’ resurgence has been defined by consistency and tactical maturity. Having finished runners-up for three consecutive seasons, Arteta’s squad appears to have finally found the balance between defensive resilience and attacking flair. Arsenal have won four of their last five league games, scoring nine times and conceding just twice, while new signing Viktor Gyokeres has already made his mark with three goals.
Liverpool’s decline under Arne Slot has been stark. Consecutive league defeats to Crystal Palace, Chelsea, and Manchester United have seen their title-winning probability plummet to 17.2%, leaving them with plenty of ground to recover.
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Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have recovered from their early struggles, with four wins in their last five matches, with Erling Haaland in blistering form with nine goals in eight league matches this season..
With 30 games still to play, plenty could change, but Arsenal’s current trajectory points to a genuine title challenge.
Opta’s supercomputer, renowned for its historical accuracy, correctly forecasting the champion in roughly 70% of past seasons, now paints a clear picture: Arsenal are not just contenders anymore. They are the team to beat.
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