Could Matchday 9 prove to be a defining weekend in the Premier League title race when we look back in May? Arsenal certainly made the most of it, according to the Opta supercomputer.
As far as weekends go, it was a pretty good one for Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s side kept yet another clean sheet and earned three more points, beating a potentially awkward opponent in Crystal Palace 1-0 at the Emirates.
That result may have been expected, but what happened elsewhere in the division across Matchday 9 was slightly more eyebrow-raising.
Both of Arsenal’s direct title rivals slipped up. Liverpool’s torrid run continued with a 3-2 defeat away at Brentford, before Manchester City were beaten 1-0 at Aston Villa.
Those results leave Arsenal four points clear at the top of the table ahead of Bournemouth in second, with Tottenham and Sunderland (both on 17 points) rounding out the top four.
The Gunners now hold a six-point lead over City and a seven-point cushion over Liverpool, the two sides who still remain their most credible challengers, even with their early-season hiccups.
Premier League table 2025-26 after Matchday 9
Unsurprisingly, those results led to a major swing in the Opta supercomputer’s title probabilities. Before the weekend, Arsenal were already firm favourites at 53.8%, ahead of Manchester City (18.5%) and Liverpool (17.4%).
But with Arteta’s side the only one of the three to claim any points, their title chances leapt up to 67.3%. City (12.4%) and Liverpool (11.0%) both slipped further back, while Chelsea – down from 4.5% to just 1.7% – were also downgraded in the model after they lost at home to Sunderland.
Premier League title chances before and after MD9
Things are looking rosy for Arsenal, who are now in a strong position to win their first Premier League title in 21 years.
Their defensive record continues to be extraordinary. Ahead of the Palace game, we noted they were on pace to break Chelsea’s record of conceding just 15 goals in a season. Another clean sheet has only increased that likelihood, with Arsenal now on track to concede only 12.6 goals across the campaign.
The league leaders have faced the fewest shots (72), the fewest shots on target (19), the lowest xG (5.3) and conceded the fewest goals (3) in the Premier League this season. It’s the fewest goals they’ve conceded after nine Premier League matches, and the first time they’ve kept six clean sheets in their opening nine games.
What’s more, in the current Premier League tactical cycle, where set-pieces have become increasingly important, Arsenal remain kings in that department.
With Liverpool in crisis and City’s form inconsistent, everything seems to be aligning for Arteta.
Premier League predictions overall after MD9
So, what can history tell us from here? Opta’s supercomputer title database only goes back to 2022-23, but looking back suggests Arsenal are in a strong position.
Across the last three full seasons, only once has a team held a title probability higher than 67% from this point and failed to win the league. That came in November 2024, when City – with 23 points from nine games and one point ahead of Liverpool – were rated as 75.3% favourites, but ultimately fell short.
On every other occasion a team’s forecast has climbed above 67% (which is what Arsenal’s is now), they’ve gone on to lift the trophy.
Arteta, though, will not allow complacency to creep in. Not only because City’s implosion from 2024-25 serves as a warning, but also because Arsenal have been here before and ended up empty-handed. This is the seventh time they’ve taken 22 points or more from their opening nine Premier League games of a season. Only once in the previous six occasions have they then gone on to win the title (2003-04, when they had 23 points after nine games).
They’ve faltered from strong starts in recent memory, too. They led after nine games in 2022-23 with 24 points and finished second, while they were joint-top in 2023-24 with 21 points before again finishing as runners-up.
But Arsenal appear better equipped this time. The squad is deeper and it says a lot that William Saliba’s half-time withdrawal against Palace has not been met with the outcry it would have received a few years ago. The team is set up to absorb such setbacks.
If they can maintain this level of control and consistency, Matchday 9 may be the moment we look back on as the beginning of the end of Arsenal’s long wait for another Premier League title.
Premier League Stats Opta
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