Some Gooners just can’t win. If you express concern that it might not be sustainable for Arsenal to keep relying on the odd set-piece goal to claim victories, you’re accused of raining on everyone’s parade. Yet if you complain after we drop points, you’re branded wise after the event.
As I write this, Arsenal have incredibly conceded only three times in all competitions this season, and just twice in open play. It is quickly becoming a statistic that can affect teams before they even step onto the pitch. Opponents are aware that it will take something special to break us down, while mentally our players know there is less pressure to score freely when the defence is this solid.
Sir Alex Ferguson once said that “defences win titles.” While I’ll give examples of when that has been true, when you really investigate the statement, it’s not strictly accurate, is it?
The statistics behind title-winning defences
In 33 Premier League seasons, only 12 champions have been the side that conceded the fewest goals. Eighteen won the title despite not keeping the most clean sheets, while three champions shared the same number of shutouts as another team.
The Gunners know that reality well. David Raya has two Golden Gloves since moving to North London, but none of those seasons ended in silverware.
George Graham built one of Britain’s most famous back fives, whose careers Arsène Wenger helped extend through modern training and dietary methods. Yet even that defence, dominant in the early Premier League years, produced impressive statistics that did not always translate into titles.
Thierry Henry and Arsene Wenger
Thierry Henry and Arsene Wenger (Getty Images)
Lessons from history
The 1998-99 Arsenal side still hold the record for conceding the fewest goals in a season without being crowned champions. We shipped just 17 goals – a staggering 20 fewer than Manchester United – yet United went on to win the Treble while we finished second.
That season summed up how small the margins can be in top-level sport. Our goalkeeper and back four did their jobs brilliantly, but we drew too many games, failing to score in eight of them. If we had found the net in just one of those goalless draws, we would have retained the Double.
So while a poor defence can certainly cost you a title, it’s not always true that a great one guarantees success.
For the record, betting markets currently offer odds of 33/1 on Arsenal conceding fewer than 14.5 goals this season. Worth a tenner, anyone?
Dan Smith
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