Arsenal go to Turf Moor with purpose and a clear edge. Eight straight wins across all competitions tell you the standards are holding. Top of the table. Four points clear. Another three would tighten the grip before the break. Burnley are not rolling over for anyone, though. They have back-to-back league wins and a home record that has stiffened. Turf Moor gives them belief. Arsenal bring the bigger platform and the cleaner plan.
This preview sticks to the facts you provided. No guesswork. The tone is what it should be for an Arsenal site. Confident, measured, and focused on what actually decides the game.
### Head-to-head
This fixture favors Arsenal. Burnley have one win in 18 Premier League meetings. Arsenal are unbeaten in 11 away league games at Turf Moor, stretching back to 1973. Burnley have never scored more than once in any of their 18 Premier League matches against Arsenal. The recent memory is loud. A 5-0 win at Turf Moor in 2024 and a 3-1 at the Emirates in 2023. Arsenal also thrive against promoted sides, with 23 wins from the last 24 league matches in that category, including 13 in a row.
History does not score goals on Saturday, but it frames the risk. Burnley will know they need the first blow. Arsenal will know patience and control are enough to tilt this again.
### Current form
Arsenal’s run is clean. Four straight league wins. Three straight league clean sheets. Eight wins on the spin across all competitions, including a 2-0 EFL Cup win over Brighton with a rotated side. Away from home the attack has been efficient rather than wild. One goal per away game in the league from your split. The defense travels. Half a goal conceded per away match. That is title behavior.
Burnley’s response to pressure has been strong. They beat Leeds 2-0, then won 3-2 at Wolves with a stoppage-time finish. They have scored in six straight across all competitions. At home they are tighter than their overall numbers suggest. They concede 0.50 per home game and keep a clean sheet in half of their home matches. When Burnley score first, they win. That is their lever.
Opta’s model sets the wider frame. Arsenal win probability sits at 70 percent. Burnley at 13.4 percent. The rest falls into place once the first half settles.
### Tactical preview
Arsenal bring structure. Burnley bring bite and a left-sided supply line. The game will swing on territory, restarts, and the first fifteen minutes.
Arsenal’s shape stays stable. A 4-3-3 with fullback flexibility. Jurrien Timber can step inside to create a second pivot. Riccardo Calafiori can overlap or underlap to open the left. The right side remains the headline. Bukayo Saka pins defenders, draws fouls, and turns wide possession into shots and corners. Declan Rice locks the middle and cuts off counters before they reach the box. This is how Arsenal squeeze away games. Fewer waves, more control, then the set-piece machine goes to work.
Set pieces are the clearest gap. Arsenal lead the league with 11 goals from restarts, which is 69 percent of their league total. That is not a streak. That is repeatable craft. Near-post screens. Far-post stacks. Delayed runs from the back post. If the game gets stuck, deliveries and routines unlock it.
Burnley will look different from open play. Scott Parker can shift to a back five and pack the box. That gives space to the wingbacks and to Quilindschy Hartman in particular. He has four league assists and carries a strong crossing threat. He likes to hit early when he sees a gap. Zian Flemming and Lyle Foster give targets and second runs. Their best chance is to make it messy in the first quarter hour, land a punch from a cross or a set play, then lean on the block.
The wide duels decide a lot. Saka against Hartman is high leverage. If Saka forces Hartman back, Burnley lose their best outlet. On the opposite flank, Calafiori’s movement can unbalance the line and free Leandro Trossard to hit the far post. Arsenal do not need to rush. They do need to keep the tempo high enough to win corners and free kicks in crossing zones.
A note on early phases. Two thirds of the goals Arsenal have conceded this season came before the break. A third came in the opening fifteen minutes. That is the one crack Burnley can hit. Survive that stretch and the match bends toward the leaders.
### Key players
Arsenal
* Bukayo Saka. The right winger who turns pressure into production. Free kicks won, corners forced, and a steady supply of cutbacks. His threat dictates Burnley’s shape.
* Declan Rice. The stabilizer. First contact on clearances. Field position management. He keeps the middle quiet on the road.
* Leandro Trossard. Likely to start if Gabriel Martinelli does not make it. Finds space in traffic and times the far-post run on crosses and corners.
* Center-backs. Three straight league clean sheets reflect more than shot stopping. It is line control, box protection and set-piece dominance.
Burnley
* Quilindschy Hartman. Four assists this season. Timing on his deliveries is sharp. He must both supply and keep Saka honest.
* Maxime Esteve. Carries the central load in a back five look. His duels with Viktor Gyokeres in the channel matter.
* Zian Flemming and Lyle Foster. The finishers. They feed on second balls and back-post space when Hartman fires from the left.
### Injuries and availability
Burnley are missing Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, and Connor Roberts. Lesley Ugochukwu left the Wolves match late but is expected to be available.
Arsenal have doubts over William Saliba and Gabriel Martinelli. Mikel Arteta signaled this one may come too soon for Martinelli. Saliba is a day-of decision. Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Noni Madueke, and Gabriel Jesus sit in the longer-term group around the break. The Brighton win added no fresh problems and kept starters fresh.
The absences trim some headline names but do not change the core shape. Arsenal still field a back line that guards the box and a midfield that maintains control. Burnley still have their left-side supply and the option to thicken the last line.
### Statistical breakdown
The numbers you shared match what we see on the pitch.
Arsenal away
* 1.00 goals scored per away match
* 0.50 goals conceded per away match
* 75 percent away win rate
* 50 percent away clean-sheet rate
* 11 set-piece goals in the league, most in the division, 69 percent of total league goals
* A third of goals conceded arrived in the opening 15 minutes
Burnley home
* 0.50 goals conceded per home match
* 50 percent home clean-sheet rate
* 1.25 goals scored per home match
* Scoring rate at home listed at 75 percent
* All three league wins came after scoring first
Corners and pressure
* Arsenal average 8.50 corners for per away match
* Burnley average 6.50 corners against at home
* Total corners in Arsenal away games sit north of 13 on average
Put together, this points to an Arsenal control game. Fewer end-to-end spells. More field position. A steady rise in restart volume. Burnley’s home goals-against figure is strong, so the margin likely sits at one for a long time. The second goal arrives late if it arrives at all.
### What decides it
* Set pieces. Arsenal’s routines are a weapon. Burnley cannot give cheap fouls near the corners of the box.
* The first 15 minutes. Burnley’s best chance to tilt the match. Arsenal need clean exits and early control of second balls.
* Wide control. If Saka pins Hartman deep, Burnley lose their best outlet and concede the territory that generates corners.
* Box discipline. Rice and the center-backs must win first contact on crosses. Burnley’s path runs through Hartman’s service and rebounds.
A small bullet set for clarity:
* Arsenal path to goal: corner or wide free kick, then a late second on transition or another restart.
* Burnley path to goal: early strike from a cross or a broken-phase chance, then a deep block with five.
### Prediction and closing thoughts
Turf Moor asks questions about patience and structure. Arsenal handle those well now. The clean-sheet trend is not hype. It comes from shape, distances, and ruthless work on defensive restarts. Burnley’s improvement deserves respect. Their home defensive numbers are real. They can make this tight for long stretches.
The edge still lands with Arsenal. The set-piece gap is significant. The away defense is strong. The team manages minutes and game state better than last season. If the visitors keep the first quarter hour clean, the rest of the match leans their way.
**Prediction: Burnley 0-2 Arsenal.**
The route looks familiar. Control the middle. Load the box on corners. Strike once before the hour. Add a second when space opens or from another restart. Then lock it down. That is how title runs survive tricky away days and keep the league table moving in the right direction.