The 2025–26 Premier League title race is heating up ahead of the November international break, with Arsenal and Liverpool both dropping points in Gameweek 11.
What was beginning to look somewhat like a runaway for Arsenal to claim their long-awaited league title is now anything but. The Gunners conceded a stoppage time equaliser to Sunderland on Saturday evening, dropping points in their first match since September.
The 2–2 draw for Mikel Arteta’s men would not have been the end of the world had Manchester City also failed to win this weekend. Except the Cityzens thrashed Liverpool 3–0 at the Etihad, bringing them within four points of league-leaders Arsenal.
The Reds, meanwhile, saw their momentary return to winning ways completely dashed on a rainy night in Manchester. Liverpool now find themselves in eighth place, with their hopes of defending their English crown dwindling with each new defeat.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race to pan out after Arsenal and Liverpool’s slip ups.
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Jérémy Doku, Nico O'Reilly
Jérémy Doku (left) led Man City to victory over Liverpool. / Darren Staples/AFP/Getty Images
Premier League Title Race
Pos. Team Current Points Expected Points Title Percentage
1. Arsenal 26 80.21 65.49
2. Man City 22 72.73 19.43
3. Liverpool 18 69.20 8.89
Next. Premier League Table Nov International Break. 2025–26 Premier League Standings Through Gameweek 11. dark
Despite Arsenal’s blunder against Sunderland, they are still Opta’s pick to win the league by a resounding margin. The Gunners are projected to earn around 80 points, which would be four points less than what Liverpool needed to claim the English crown last season.
Should Arteta’s men win the Premier League title with 80 points, they will do so with the fourth-lowest points total in league history.
Man City, meanwhile, are projected to mount a runners-up finish following their victory over Liverpool. The Cityzens are predicted to earn just over 72 points in 2025–26.
Opta, though, gives Pep Guardiola’s side a 19.43% chance to win the Premier League title; Man City are the only other club given a double-digit percentage to potentially become the next English champions, with Arsenal leading the way with 65.49%.
Liverpool are now bumped down to third in Opta’s projections. The Reds’ loss at the Etihad puts them within range of collecting just 69 points, their lowest haul since the 2022–23 season.
Champions League Spots
Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho
Chelsea are expected to make the Champions League once again next season. / Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images
Pos. Team Current Points Expected Points Champions League Percentage
4. Chelsea 20 63.20 39.23
5. Aston Villa 18 60.00 23.78
6. Crystal Palace 17 59.49 22.06
7. Bournemouth 18 57.15 13.35
8. Man Utd 18 56.34 11.55
9. Brighton 16 55.86 10.79
10. Spurs 18 55.01 9.88
Below the top three, various clubs are competing to finish in the Champions League places. It is likely that the top five teams in the English top-flight will qualify for UEFA’s premier club competition.
Hopes were high for Chelsea to make a push for the Premier League title after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph, but injuries and red cards have marred the Blues’ 2025–26 season. Still, they are projected to finish fourth with a 39% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
Opta then projects a tight battle Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to claim fifth place. The former is projected to finish with 60 points while the latter is projected to finish with around 59 points.
Bournemouth are still in the hunt despite suffering back-to-back defeats to Man City and Aston Villa ahead of the November international break. The Cherries, though, are expected to have to settle for the Europa League, much like Man Utd, who are only given an 11.55% chance of making a return to Europe’s biggest stage.
Brighton and Spurs round out Opta’s top 10. Despite currently sitting fifth in the standings, the supercomputer has Tottenham Hotspur finishing the season in 10th place, without a spot in Europe next season.
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