City thrash United 3–0; champions Chelsea held 1–1 by Liverpool; Arsenal misfire in goalless derby; London City and West Ham clinch 3–1 wins; Brighton hit four past Leicester.
Overview
Gameweek 9 produced 18 goals across six fixtures as the title race tilted further in Manchester City’s favour. City cruised to a 3–0 derby win while both of their nearest rivals faltered.
Chelsea were shockingly held 1–1 by a winless Liverpool, and Arsenal couldn’t find a breakthrough in a 0–0 stalemate at Tottenham. Those stumbles allowed City to extend their lead at the top to 3 points heading into the break.
London City Lionesses continued to impress with a 3–1 victory away at Aston Villa, and West Ham United finally secured their first win of the season, 3–1 over Everton.
Brighton capped the weekend by thumping Leicester City 4–1, a result that further tightens the battle in the lower half.
Overall, the round showcased several upsets and much-needed results for underdogs, shaking up both ends of the table.
Match-by-Match Breakdown
Manchester City 3–0 Manchester United
Venue: Etihad Stadium (Manchester) | Attendance: TBC
Manchester City moved 3 points clear at the top with a commanding 3–0 victory over Manchester United at the Etihad. All three goals arrived before half-time: Rebecca Knaak opened the scoring on 26′ (assisted by Khadija Shaw), Shaw doubled the lead on 43′ (assisted by Kerstin Casparij), and Lauren Hemp added a third in first-half stoppage time (45+2′). City’s early blitz put the game out of reach, and they managed the second half comfortably as United struggled to muster a response.
Key stats that influenced the outcome
Chance quality and conversion: City outperformed United in expected goals 2.06–0.91, creating two big chances to United’s zero. The hosts scored three times from 14 shots, while United’s 11 attempts yielded no goals.
No shots on target for United: Despite 60% possession, United failed to register a single shot on target (0 out of 11). City, in contrast, hit 5 shots on frame, translating to an xG on target of 2.18 and exposing United’s lack of cutting edge.It’s the first time United have failed to register a shot on target in a WSL game since facing Chelsea on 18 May 2024.
Defensive solidity: City’s back line allowed plenty of harmless possession but little penetration. They recorded 6 blocks and 31 clearances, absorbing pressure and ensuring goalkeeper Ayaka Yamashita did not have to make a save.
Possession without punch: United completed more passes in the opposition half (208 vs 122) and held a possession advantage, but much of it was sterile. City’s compact shape meant United’s time on the ball rarely translated into genuine chances.
Player spotlight – Khadija Shaw (Man City, ST)
Retrospection
Our preview model saw this derby as relatively even, giving City a 49% win probability with a 1–1 draw the single most likely scoreline. City’s dominant 3–0 victory far exceeded those expectations – a much more one-sided outcome than anticipated as the hosts comfortably capitalised on their chances.
West Ham United 3–1 Everton
Venue: Chigwell Construction Stadium (Dagenham, Essex) | Attendance: TBC
West Ham finally ended their winless run with a 3–1 victory over Everton. Anouk Denton opened the scoring on 32′ (assisted by Riko Ueki), before Amber Tysiak headed in a second on 41′ (assisted by Viviane Asseyi). Shekiera Martinez added a third on 54′, again assisted by Ueki, before Katja Snoeijs scored a late consolation for Everton on 88’. This is West Ham’s first win of the campaign – could this be a turning point for them?
Key stats that influenced the outcome
Attacking dominance: West Ham outshot Everton 19–7 and led comfortably in expected goals (2.49 vs 0.99), reflecting their control of the game’s chances. The home side also struck the woodwork twice in their pursuit of goals.
Set-piece threat: A significant portion of West Ham’s danger came from dead balls. They earned 6 corners to Everton’s 4 and generated 1.38 xG from set plays (versus 0.63 for Everton), capitalising on aerial opportunities – including Tysiak’s header from a corner.
Under pressure at the back: Everton actually saw 58% of possession, but much of it was in non-threatening areas. When West Ham attacked, Everton’s defence was stretched – the Toffees had to make 42 clearances, nearly double West Ham’s 22, as they desperately tried to repel waves of attacks.
Clinical finishing: West Ham were ruthless with their opportunities, converting both of their big chances (100% big chance conversion). Everton, by contrast, scored only one of their two big chances (50%), a disparity that helped decide the scoreline.
Player spotlight – Riko Ueki (West Ham Utd, RW)
Retrospection
Our preview model had Everton as slight favourites (39% win chance) and pointed toward a tight encounter (a 1–1 draw or 1–0 either way among the most likely outcomes). Instead, West Ham’s emphatic 3–1 win flipped the script. It was an unexpected result that defied the model and earned the Hammers a long-awaited first win of the season.
Aston Villa 1–3 London City Lionesses
Venue: Villa Park (Birmingham) | Attendance: TBC
London City Lionesses’ dream debut season continues with a 3–1 win at Aston Villa. Saki Kumagai opened the scoring on 12′ (assisted by Kosovare Asllani). Kirsty Hanson equalised on 33′. After the break, Isobel Goodwin restored LCL’s lead on 51′ (assisted by Freya Godfrey), and four minutes later Kumagai struck again to seal the points for LCL.
Key stats that influenced the outcome
Efficiency over volume: Aston Villa registered 22 shots to London City’s 9 and had 53% possession, yet it was the Lionesses who made their chances count. Despite the shot disparity, London City edged the xG battle 2.02–1.76, indicating their chances were of higher quality.
Superior finishing: London City were clinical in front of goal – their 5 shots on target carried an xG on target of 2.49, far exceeding Villa’s 0.88 from 6 shots on target. The visitors matched Villa in big chances (2 each), but most importantly converted one of theirs and scored from tighter angles, whereas Villa failed to convert either of their clear opportunities.
Defensive resilience: Under sustained Villa pressure, London City’s defence held firm. The Lionesses made 15 clearances and 14 interceptions, disrupting Villa’s build-up repeatedly. Villa had 6 corners and 14 shots inside the box, but LCL’s organised defending and shot-blocking limited the home side to one goal.
Player spotlight – Saki Kumagai (London City, DM)
Retrospection
Our preview model had Villa as slight favourites (50% win probability) with a 1–1 draw as the most likely result. London City’s 3–1 upset on Villa’s ground clearly defied those expectations. The newly promoted side not only beat the odds-on pick, but did so in style.
Brighton & Hove Albion 4–1 Leicester City
Venue: American Express Stadium (Falmer, East Sussex) | Attendance: TBC
Brighton swept past Leicester City 4–1 at the Amex with a lively attacking performance. Madison Haley struck first on 27′ (assisted by Kiko Seike), Maëlys Mpomé doubled the lead on 47′ (assisted by Nadine Noordam). Shannon O’Brien pulled one back for Leicester on 75’ (assisted by Jutta Rantala). Marisa Olislagers added a third in the 87’ (assisted by Noordam), and Seike sealed the win in stoppage time (90+4’). It was Brighton’s second four-goal display of the season, underlining their growing attacking threat.
Key stats that influenced the outcome
Relentless pressure: Brighton bossed possession 67%–33% and completed more than double Leicester’s passes. They camped in Leicester’s half, logging 198 passes in the opposition half to the Foxes’ 64, and winning the corner count 9–3.
Territorial dominance: The Seagulls recorded 44 touches in Leicester’s penalty area, compared to just 11 by Leicester in Brighton’s box – a stark indicator of which side spent more time on the front foot.
Clinical vs wasteful: Ironically, Leicester created more big chances (4) than Brighton (3), but Brighton finished theirs ruthlessly (66.7% big chance conversion) while Leicester converted only 1 of 4 (25%). That difference in efficiency was reflected in the lopsided final score.
Player spotlight – Kiko Seike (Brighton, ST)
Retrospection
Our preview model had Brighton as favourites (55% win probability) with a routine 1–0 or 2–0 win forecast by our model. The 4–1 scoreline outstripped those expectations in margin, if not in outcome. While a Brighton victory aligned with predictions, the surge of late goals made the result more lopsided than anticipated.
Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea
Venue: St Helens Stadium (St Helens, Merseyside) | Attendance: TBC
Liverpool earned a stunning point against reigning champions Chelsea, holding them to a 1–1 draw on Merseyside. Chelsea struck early as Alyssa Thompson finished from Wieke Kaptein’s pass in the 9th minute. Liverpool responded in the 33rd minute, with Beata Olsson converting a rapid counter led by Lily Woodham. The hosts then dug in, frustrating Chelsea’s persistent attacks. Despite controlling possession and territory, Chelsea couldn’t break Liverpool’s defensive resilience, leaving honours even.
Key stats that influenced the outcome
Territorial dominance, poor finishing: Chelsea enjoyed 66% possession and spent long stretches in Liverpool’s third (32 touches in the opposition box vs Liverpool’s 4). However, they managed only1 shot on target out of 9 attempts and missed all 4 of their big chances – this ultimately proved costly.
Liverpool’s defensive stand: Under pressure, Liverpool’s defence made 24 clearances and 16 interceptions. They limited Chelsea largely to shots from poorer angles (Chelsea’s xG per shot was low despite total xG ~1.1) and won more duels, ensuring the visitors couldn’t find a second breakthrough.
Even on expected goals: Despite Chelsea’s dominance, the expected goals were nearly deadlocked (Chelsea 1.11, Liverpool 1.13). This reflects that while Chelsea had more attempts, Liverpool’s rare forays were just as threatening in aggregate – a testament to the Reds’ quality over quantity approach on the day.
Player spotlight – Lily Woodham (Liverpool, LB)
Retrospection
Our preview model gave Chelsea a commanding 76% win probability, with a routine away victory (0–2 or 0–3) the most likely scenario. Instead, Liverpool produced one of the shocks of the season. The 1–1 draw was a highly improbable outcome based on the odds, as the heavy favourites dropped points in a match almost universally expected to go Chelsea’s way.
Tottenham Hotspur 0–0 Arsenal
Venue: BetWright Stadium (London) | Attendance: 6,788
Arsenal were held to a 0–0 draw by Tottenham Hotspur in a tense north London encounter. The Gunners entered as clear favourites and proceeded to control large stretches of the match, but a combination of wasteful finishing and stout Spurs defending left them frustrated. Arsenal peppered the Tottenham goal throughout, yet the hosts’ goalkeeper Lize Kop and her back line produced a resilient rearguard display. Spurs grew in confidence as the clean sheet remained intact, securing a hard-earned point and handing Arsenal a setback in the title race.
Key stats that influenced the outcome
Arsenal on top, except the score: The visitors led in shots (13 to 4) and xG (1.76–0.16), highlighting their attacking dominance. Arsenal also created the only clear-cut chance of the game (1 big chance to Spurs’ 0) but failed to convert it.
Persistent pressure: Arsenal spent much of the game in Spurs’ territory, tallying 41 touches in the opposition box compared to just 8 by Tottenham. They won 4 corners to Spurs’ 3 and forced 4 saves from Kop, but could not break the deadlock.
Wall of defence: Tottenham defended deep and in numbers. They amassed 40 clearances and 4 blocks to continually repel Arsenal’s advances. Kop’s goalkeeping (4 saves, several high claims) and a disciplined back four ensured that even as Arsenal pressed, the hosts kept their clean sheet intact.
Frustration for the favourites: Arsenal’s lone big chance went begging and they hit the target only 4 times despite their dominance. As the minutes ticked away, their shots became increasingly from distance (5 attempts from outside the box), reflecting Tottenham’s success in protecting the danger area and Arsenal’s growing frustration.
Player spotlight – Lize Kop (Tottenham, GK)
Retrospection
Our preview model had Arsenal as clear favourites (66% win chance) with a 2–0 away win the most predicted outcome. Tottenham ground out a 0–0 draw that few saw coming. While the stalemate aligns with a low-probability scenario from the model’s perspective, Spurs’ ability to hold Arsenal goalless speaks to how far Spurs have come in closing the gap between them and Arsenal.
Final Word
If Gameweek 9 had a headline, it would be:“City capitalise as challengers stumble – and underdogs fight back.”
Chelsea and Arsenal’s slips meant Manchester City emerged from the weekend as the happiest of all four top sides, seizing momentum in the title race.
At the same time, underdogs made their presence felt: Liverpool and Tottenham frustrated two giants, West Ham finally tasted victory, and London City notched another eye-catching win. The injection of these surprise results has tightened the competition on both ends of the standings.
Looking ahead, the pressure is on Chelsea and Arsenal to rebound, as City’s lead – however slim – could prove significant if consistency isn’t found early enough.
As we approach the midway point of the season, the WSL’s balance of power remains in flux. There won’t be runaway champions this season.
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