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By JAMES SHARPE
Published: 12:01 EST, 17 November 2025 | Updated: 12:14 EST, 17 November 2025
This Premier League season has seen the resurgence of ideals many thought consigned to a bygone age: long balls, long throws, top teams playing for set-pieces. Now add one more thing to that list: home advantage.
The previous top-flight campaign ended with the number of home wins plummeting to near Covid depths (when those haunting atmospheres in empty stadiums proved for good that fans do make a difference after all).
Well, now home advantage is back with a bang.
For the first time in 15 years – and for only the third time in the Premier League era – teams are winning more than 50 per cent of their games on home soil. The current win rate is the highest in the competition’s history.
So, why are teams suddenly winning again at home?
WHAT’S CHANGED?
To understand why home wins have begun to soar again, we first need to figure out why they plunged such depths last season.
What immediately stands out is how poorly some of the biggest clubs performed. Manchester United won just seven times at Old Trafford in the league last season, a win rate of just 37 per cent, but have roared back this time around to win four of their opening five home games.
Manchester United won just seven times at Old Trafford last season, a win rate of just 37 per cent, but have roared back this time around to win four of their opening five home games
Arsenal won just 58 per cent of their home games in the Premier League last season - but boss Mikel Arteta has moved with the times
Arsenal, in previous campaigns under Mikel Arteta, won around 75-80 per cent of their home games, too, yet dropped last season to 58 per cent.
Manchester City, too, won about two thirds of their home league games last season, which is decent enough for most teams but not for a Pep Guardiola’s side that not so long ago won 17 of their 19 matches at the Etihad Stadium.
It felt as though Arsenal and City were victims of a culture change. The shift away from Guardiola-inspired possession football and towards a more direct, long ball, counter-attacking style with sides happy to soak up pressure was suddenly starting to reap rewards.
For the first time since the Covid campaign, away teams were having more shots and scoring more goals from fast breaks than the home sides. What we might have described in the old days as: a decent away performance.
EMBRACING THE REVOLUTION
And so Guardiola and Arteta moved with the times.
The Breakdown has already revealed this season how Guardiola has abandoned his possession obsession for a more direct approach and how an Arsenal team with Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi now in it is far more adept at going forward quickly.
Arsenal and City have won all but one of their home matches so far.
It’s happening across the board. For the first time since Opta began collecting the data in 2003-04, home sides in the Premier League are averaging less than 50 per cent possession.
Of the 12 non-promoted teams to see an increase in their win rates at home, eight of them are averaging less possession in those games. Of the five to have seen a drop, four of them are averaging more of the ball.
Nottingham Forest, a side who flourished without the ball under Nuno Espirito Santo but now have the seventh-most possession in the division in their home matches, are one of only five teams to see their win rate from last season drop.
Freescoring Erling Haaland has propelled Manchester City to five wins out of six at the Etihad Stadium, most recently a 3-0 thumping of Liverpool
New Nottingham Forest boss Sean Dyche needs to turn around their home form - Forest are one of just five clubs winning less at home this season
SET-PIECES STILL HOLD KEY
The much-maligned set-piece revolution appears to be playing its part too. This season, teams are scoring a third of their goals from set-pieces, up from a quarter last term.
Teams are relying on corners, free-kicks and long throws more than ever. Even in this season of supremacy, home sides are having fewer touches in the box, shots on target and expected goals than all but the Covid season. They are only just managing to contain visiting sides to fewer too.
On average over the past five seasons, home teams win 25 per cent more free-kicks in the final third than away teams do. That dropped to five per cent in the Covid season but don’t let anyone tell you referees are influenced by the home crowds.
So, of the six sides that have seen the biggest jump in their home win rates from last season to this, four of them have scored at least three goals in those games from set-plays: United (3), Everton (3), Arsenal (5) and Brentford (3). Only one of the five clubs to see their home form drop have done so and that’s Newcastle, who have experienced the most marginal decline.
Set-pieces are so important these days that some home sides are even using a few dark arts to keep their opponents at bay. Sunderland moved their advertising hoardings at the Stadium of Light closer to the touchline in a bid to strangle Arsenal’s long throws.
It makes a change, perhaps, from teams painting the away dressing rooms pink to lower testosterone levels or putting false pillars in the middle of the room to stop coaches being able to see all their players at once. Every little helps.
Set-pieces are having a major impact on sides' results - no team is better at them than Arsenal, and the Gunners have already scored five goals from set-plays at the Emirates this term
Brentford are also making the most of dead-ball situations at the Gtech Community Stadium - their boss Keith Andrews is a former set-piece coach
NEW CAULDRONS
The Covid season in 2020-21 showed that fans make a difference. For the first time ever, more away wins than home wins, near identical numbers of goals scored. Usually, home sides score more than 100 more goals over the course of a season than away teams.
Fans, however, can make a difference both ways. In that Covid season, as most teams’ home record slumped, none saw theirs soar more than West Ham, who recorded their highest win rate at the London Stadium in any season since they moved in. No fans, no chance for things to turn toxic.
The atmosphere inside a stadium can sometimes harm the home team as much as help it.
With that in mind, it is little surprise that one of the biggest shifts in the upturn of home advantage is the performance of the promoted sides. Last season, the three teams that came up – and went straight back down – won just six of their 57 combined home matches. The current trio have already won seven of their 16 between them.
The likes of Leeds and Sunderland, back in the Premier League for the first time in nearly a decade, are better equipped than the clubs they replaced on the field - and in the stands.
The atmospheres inside the Stadium of Light and Elland Road are far more intimidating than Leicester's King Power Stadium or Southampton's St Mary’s, which frequently saw crowds turn on their own teams or boardrooms.
Leeds United's Joe Rodon celebrates his winner over West Ham at Elland Road last month - the League's newly-promoted sides are faring far better at home than their predecessors
Sunderland fans (pictured here during the Black Cats' 2-2 draw with Arsenal) create a fearsome atmosphere at the Stadium of Light
HOLD OUR HORSES
There is, of course, a hefty caveat to all this: we are only 11 games into the season. Much can change.
Bournemouth have enjoyed one of the biggest home bounces, winning just 42 per cent of their matches at the Vitality Stadium last season compared to a massive 80 per cent this term. They have been superb under Andoni Iraola, especially after losing a host of key players in the summer, but are yet to have played home games against any of the current top 10.
Fulham have done the same. The Cottagers have won three of their opening five home games but failed to beat the only two high-flyers they have faced in United and Arsenal.
The same cannot be said for Brentford, though, who have won two thirds of their games at the Gtech Stadium and beaten Liverpool, Newcastle and United along the way.
Time will tell. Form will peak and trough. Injuries will have their impact and new trends may develop along the way. But, for now at least, we can say one thing for certain: it’s nice to be home.