What the Data Really Says About Amorim’s Work in Progress
Introduction
Over a year ago, Manchester United made a bold move: buying out Rúben Amorim’s contract from Sporting CP to bring him to Old Trafford. The reaction was mixed. Not because people doubted his talent, we all knew Amorim could coach, but because we’ve seen this story before.
United hire a promising manager from outside the top five leagues. There’s early excitement, a few bright performances… but somehow, it never quite works at Old Trafford. With Erik ten Hag, personality clashes and rigidity seemed to sink things. Amorim, on the other hand, brought charisma, honesty, and a better connection with the press,even if he wastoo honest at times.
The start was promising, but the storm quickly followed.As Amorim warned the fans and media, it wasn’t going to be pretty. There were flashes of the system, especially when United could bait teams into pressing high, but more often, they were just frustrating to watch. Still, they scraped their way to a Europa League final. That heartbreak ended with a loss to an equally disjointed Spurs side, who ditched their principles just long enough to win and grab Champions League qualification.
Ironically, Spurs have regressed since. Meanwhile, United, now without European football, are finally starting to show signs of life. The data backs it up.
But there’s still a long way to go. Let’s break it down.
Man Utd season by the numbers
The Good
Overall Attack
When judging a team, I always lean on underlying numbers and*Understat* remains one of my go-to tools. Their xG and xPts models for the top five leagues give a solid picture of team performance beneath the surface. And if you’re a United fan, there’s reason to be optimistic.
Manchester United are third when it comes to Expected Points, a model that measures expected goals for and against when it counts for wins and losses, a big reason to be happy about the team this season although very tight up there.
Man Utd are third based on Expected Points.
United currently rank1st in the league for expected goals (xG), which tells us one thing: they’re generating chances. Yes, they’reunderperforming that xG by over 3 goals, but that’s a sign of finishing issues, not chance creation.
Early in the season, this was more aboutquantity over quality, a lot of speculative, low-value shots. It made for frustrating viewing, and the team looked chaotic in the final third. But more recently, there’s beenclear improvement in their shot selection and buildup structure.
Man Utd have recorded the most xG
They’re alsojoint-second in goals scored, a huge shift from last season, where they struggled badly in attack, even losing games at Old Trafford without scoring.
As Fabian Hürzeler mentionned, United did buy well.
Man Utd have scored the second most goals.
These are all encouraging signs. Based purely on attacking data, you’d think United should be flying.
But of course, the problems lie elsewhere.
Set-Piece Attack: From Liability to Weapon
Remember last season when United were constantly criticised for their lack of set-piece threat? That narrative’s dead and buried.
As it stands, United are1st in xG from set pieces,1st in goals scored from set pieces, and2nd in shots generated, outperforming even Arsenal, who’ve been widely considered the benchmark in this department.
Man Utd rank first on Set Piece Offensive Stats
I won’t go deep here(I’ve already covered this in theSet Piece Spotlight on United vs West Ham), but the trend is clear:far-post routines are clicking, with another goal vs Bournemouth on Monday. They’re alsothriving on free kicks, thanks to the delivery quality from Bruno Fernandes and Mason Mount. Eventhrow-ins are starting to pose problems for opponents; a sign of serious planning and execution.
What’s more impressive? Amorim, who many labelled as rigid, has clearly shown the ability toadapt and evolve, using set pieces as a key tactical edge. That’s coaching maturity.
Man Utd’s Standout Players: A Different Dimension
As mentioned above, United have recruited well, even if their marquee names (Cunha and Sekso) are still not up to speed. But using three custom metrics I developed this summer, we can already see which players are quietly (or loudly) making a difference.
Here’s what I tracked:
🎯Goalkeeper Ball Value (GBV): Measures a keeper’s contribution to attacking value via long balls, fast carries, or sharp forward passes, basically, are they helping the team go vertical and dangerous?
🤝 Link-Up Value (LUV): Evaluates how a striker’s link-up actions (flicks, layoffs, passes) lead to forward progression or just dead-end possession.
🧠Box IQ: Scores how often and how smartly midfielders/attackers position themselves in and around the box to generate threat (shots, passes, dribbles).
🧤 Lammens: Going Long With Purpose
Lammens showing up in theTop 10 for GBV confirms something I’ve noticed tactically: United canbypass the press and go long. They’re not overly fixated on short build-up, Amorim’s side can stretch teams directly, which aligns with the chaotic, direct nature of this season’s Premier League. That’s a tactical win.
🤝 Zirkzee: From Frustration to Function
Zirkzee struggled last season, often lost between bullying centre-backs and slow midfield support. But now, used more as animpact sub, he’s thriving, rankingTop 2 in Link-Up Value. He’s finally playing like the connector United hoped for: receiving deep, laying it off, keeping moves flowing. Whether he can become a starter is another story but for now, he’s doing his job.
🧠 Mbeumo: Chaos in the Box
Cunha may be the better all-around player, butMbeumo is a certified chaos agent. He ranks4th in Box IQ, consistently showing up in dangerous pockets, threatening with carries, shots, and clever passes. On his day, he’s unplayable. Overpriced? Maybe. But he’s settled quickly and improved Man Utd’s output better than anyone expected.
Together, these three highlight a new tactical layer to United: they’recomfortable going direct,have a real link-up hub, and boast ahigh-end threat generator. That’s a far cry from last season.
But There’s a Catch
As we head into the AFCON period, United will temporarily lose:
Mbeumo – their top threat generator
Diallo – a sharp rotational option
Mazraoui – a composed presence at the back
These absences will test depth and adaptability, but the underlying structure looks ready to handle it.
The Bad
Overall Defense
While United have shown promise going forward, ranking near the top ingoals scored andxG, theirdefensive record is the main thing holding them back from securing a top-four spot.
📉 The Numbers Tell the Story
xGA (Expected Goals Against): United sit mid-table. Not disastrous, butnot good enough when you compare them to the league’s other top sides. Teams competing for Europe are simply defending better.
Goals Conceded: Here’s where it gets ugly. United are in thebottom six, a shocking stat for a club aiming for Champions League football. No other serious top-five contender has this kind of defensive leak.
⚠️ A Calculated Gamble?
It seems Amorim has made a choice:don’t fix the defense, just outscore everyone. And for now, it’sworking. The league is tight, United are still in the mix, and they’ve built an attack that can overpower most sides.
But at some point, the 1-0 wins will matter. You can’t always shoot your way out of problems, especially in must-win late-season games or away European ties, if they get there.
To be fair, United are also missing two of their best defenders,De Ligt andMaguire, both out injured. That’s a big caveat. But even when fit, defensive structure needs to improve.
🧱 Set Piece Defending: The Hidden Weakness
For all their attacking firepower and recent improvement in set piece executionoffensively, Manchester United continue tostruggle defensively on dead balls.
We’ve already seen costly examples:
Afar-post corner against West Ham, in a game they were winning, cost themtwo valuable points.
Earlier this season, anArsenal corner decided the match.
Theyrank poorly in bothset piece xG conceded andshots allowed from these situations.
These aren’t isolated incidents, it’s a clear pattern. As shown in our West Ham spotlight piece, United have a recurring issue withmarking the far post and tracking runners from deeper positions.
If they want to cement a top-four push, theycan’t afford to concede cheap goals like this, especially againstlower-ranked sides who rely on set pieces to level the playing field.
Set piece defending isn’t just a detail, it’s a serious vulnerability.
🧠 Verdict: A Flawed Team on the Rise
Manchester Unitedare improving and the data proves it. Despite the noise, they’re among the league’s best in attacking output, and while theirdefensive issues are real, they feel more like temporary issues than long-term problems.
What’s most impressive and honestly surprising ishow well they’ve adapted to the league. This isn’t just Amorim stubbornly imposing his style; he’sevolving, finding ways to make United competitive in a chaotic Premier League.
A Champions League return? Maybe not this season.
But atop-eight finish looks realistic, and that would already be a significant leap from last year’s dysfunction.
For the first time in a while, United look like a team that’son the front foot, something even Jamie Carragher noted recently. And I agree. Even if some games feel stale, there aregenuine signs of progress.
If they can plug the gaps at the back and survive the AFCON absences, this team will be fun and frustrating to follow.