Man Utd are pushing for a return to the Champions League and the equation is simple for Michael Carrick as he surveys how to get there.
Michael Carrick
Michael Carrick's target is to get Manchester United back in the Champions League(Image: )
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Darren Fletcher lifted the veil on Manchester United's season when he so expressly laid down a return to the Champions League as the primary target for the remaining 17 games of the campaign. Forget just qualifying for Europe, it is the top table where United want to be sitting.
They begin the Michael Carrick era in seventh in the Premier League, but a congested table offers them hope, although it might look a little less packed once the 44-year-old has navigated games against Manchester City and Arsenal over the next couple of weeks.
United are on 32 points after 21 games. Continue on that trajectory and it is clear it won't be enough. There is also a feeling they have just wasted a heaven-sent run of fixtures and that Carrick will now face a more demanding schedule.
There is at least the consolation of fifth place once again being almost certain to secure Champions League football next season. Brentford currently occupy that position, which suggests the race is still wide open. It would be a seismic shock if Keith Andrews' side were still there at the end of May.
A glance through recent history shows what United should be aiming for. The last five Premier League seasons all ended with fifth place, earning between 66 and 69 points. On three occasions, it was 66 points, and that is the route Carrick should be aiming for.
That is because Brentford's current tally of 33 points is below the total of the fifth-place team at this stage of the last five campaigns. They all had between 36 and 40 points. That opens up the possibility of a lower total doing the job this season, but United aren't the only side hoping to finish strongly.
So if 66 points should be the target for fifth, how do United get there? They need 34 points from their final 17 games, which is clearly a challenge. Ten wins and four draws would do it, or 11 wins and a draw.
Given Carrick's tenure starts with games against the top two, it is a challenge. If the games against Manchester City and Arsenal end without victory, it will become 11 wins from 15 games.
United also face games against Newcastle, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Liverpool during Carrick's time in charge, all of who are likely to be battling them for a top-four or top-five finish.
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They will need to rediscover a sense of strength at Old Trafford, having endured a dismal run of home form that could prove costly come the end of the season. If Carrick can land home wins against Fulham, Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Leeds, Brentford and Nottingham Forest, then he is halfway there.
Three wins away from games against West Ham, Everton, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Brighton would be a solid return. That leaves two more to get.
A trip to Newcastle in March looks tricky, as does Stamford Bridge in April. Maybe the best chance of victories are home games against Aston Villa and Liverpool. Two of those four fixtures against Champions League rivals might need to end with three points.
Follow that plan and land 11 wins out of 17 games, and Carrick should have achieved what he has been appointed to do. Reach the Champions League, and who knows what the future holds.
Carrick's 11 wins: Fulham (H), Tottenham (H), West Ham (A), Everton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (H), Leeds (H), Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Sunderland (A), Nottingham Forest (H)