Manchester United are hoping to qualify for the Champions League this season.placeholder image
Manchester United are hoping to qualify for the Champions League this season. | AFP via Getty Images
We look at how many points Man Utd might need for a top four place based on recent seasons
Manchester United are right back in the race for the Champions League as new head coach Michael Carrick oversaw a dominant 2-0 victory over local neighbours Manchester City in a vibrant Old Trafford on derby day last weekend.
Playing in the early kick-off on Saturday lunchtime would prove to be no problem for the Red Devils, who could have had more goals had it not been for some tight offside calls on the day. While their visitors had a defence evidently depleted by injuries, United’s attacking prowess caught the eye nonetheless and will offer significant encouragement for the remainder of the season.
Finishing in the top four and qualifying for the Champions League will be United’s sole objective for the remainder of the season, as they are not competing in European football this term and have already been dumped out of both domestic cup competitions. We had a look at how many points it may take for Carrick’s side to reach their goal come May.
How many points Man Utd may need for top four analysed
This season’s race for the Champions League looks especially tight, with just five points separating fourth and eleventh place in the Premier League and many clubs no doubt still believing they are in with a shout. One of those will be United, who will be interested to know how many points have been needed to finish fourth in recent seasons.
Over the last ten seasons, an average of 70 points have been needed to finish in 4th place in the Premier League. Totals range from 66 points to 76, with 70 the average total required to qualify for the Champions League – though the last two seasons have indicated a slight lowering of that figure, as Chelsea and Aston Villa finished fourth with 69 and 68 points respectively.
The division has certainly started to tighten up in recent years with a more even spread of points and the arguable end of the traditional ‘big six’ – at least where league position is concerned – and as such, Opta predict a continuation of these trends. Their supercomputer has predicted that it will require just 63 points to finish 4th in 2025/26, which would be the lowest total since Everton finished fourth with 61 points in 2004/05.
It is worth noting that United may not need to finish fourth in order to qualify for the Champions League. Last season, the Premier League had five spots through league position in Europe’s premier club competition for the first time, as Newcastle finished 5th and took up a place in the UCL league phase.
The change in rules offers an extra spot to the two highest-ranking domestic leagues based on UEFA’s coefficient for performance across European competitions that season. The expectation is that the Premier League will qualify for this again, meaning finishing fifth could be enough for a Champions League spot. In that case, a calculation of the last ten seasons sees 68 points as the average total, while Opta predict that fifth place will end the campaign with just 59 points.
Will United secure enough points for a Champions League spot?
Calculations and predictions aside, the question remains over whether United can pick up enough points between now and the end of the season to give themselves a chance of qualifying for the Champions League. They currently sit in fifth place with 35 points.
Despite their solid form over much of the season, United may need to see a more consistent upturn in their fortunes if they are to reach the top four. Their current record of around 1.59 points per game will result in a total of approximately 60 points if things stay as they are. That does not appear likely to be enough for 4th and may not even see the Red Devils finish in the top five. Opta, meanwhile, predict United to finish 6th with 57 points.
All of the above is mere speculation at this point and there remain many things which can change the entire course of the season, from player form to injuries, suspensions and even January signings brought in before the end of the window. Much can still change, but United fans will be optimistic after Saturday’s display that they are in with a shout.
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