Michael Carrick has made a bright start to life as Man United head coach.placeholder image
Michael Carrick has made a bright start to life as Man United head coach. | AFP via Getty Images
Manchetser United manager Michael Carrick has been tasked with qualifying for the Champions League.
Man United will be delighted with the way things have begun for Michael Carrick. They made the bold decision to sack Ruben Amorim and replace him with the former United midfielder, but it was a decision that paid off.
The way that Man United have transformed under Carrick has led many to suggest that the United head coach can guide them to Champions League qualification and a spot in the top four.
How many points will United need to finish in the top four?
After their win against Arsenal, Man United managed to climb into the top four of the Premier League table, overtaking the likes of Liverpool and staying above Chelsea. However, the question remains whether they can maintain this position.
We decided to find out how many points the Red Devils will need for a top-four finish based on predictions and historical data. Over the past 10 years in the Premier League, the average number of points to finish fourth in the table is 70 points, with some seasons ranging up to 76 points, and some down at 66.
Compare this average of 70 to Opta’s prediction, which currently predicts that Chelsea will finish fourth on a points total of 61.64 (62 rounded up). Looking at both of those stats, the logical number for United to reach would be around 66 points. It is the midpoint between the Opta prediction and the historic data. According to Opta, 66 points would put Man United in fourth behind Man City, Aston Villa and Arsenal.
Can Carrick lead United to 66 points?
The next question is, how doable is a 66-point target? The Red Devils are currently on 38 points after 23 games, which works out at an average of 1.65 points per game. if United were to continue on that trajectory in their remaining 15 matches, that would land them a further 24.75 points (25).
If United get 25 points in their last 15 games, it leaves them on 63 points, close to Opta’s buffer of a potential top-four spot. But, if you consider the upturn in recent form under Carrick, reaching 66 by getting 28 points in their remaining 15 games, seems a very realistic target.
28 points would mean nine wins and one draw. Bearing in mind that these are United’s upcoming fixtures, it seems very difficult, but not impossible:
Fulham (H), Tottenham (H), West Ham (A), Everton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Newcastle (A), Aston Villa (H), Bournemouth (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Sunderland (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton (A).
The games that stand out are Newcastle (A), Aston Villa (H), Chelsea (A), and Liverpool (H). But, seeing as United need nine wins, if they lose all four of these matches, they can still hit that 66-point target. It is very doable.
Continue Reading