Analysing the numbers and what Aston Villa need to do to finish in the Champions League positions this season
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery(Image: Ryan Browne/Shutterstock)
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After falling to successive home league defeats for the first time in two years, some Aston Villa fans are beginning to worry about the chasing pack behind them.
Manchester United and Chelsea have both picked up form in recent weeks, while Liverpool also gained three points on Villa over the weekend.
Villa’s home defeat to Brentford was a bad one, considering the Bees were down to 10 men for more than 45 minutes. Emery’s side were also unfortunate when VAR ruled out what Tammy Abraham thought was an equaliser on his second debut for the club.
The comforting fact for supporters is that finishing in the top five is completely in Villa’s hands, though their buffer to the teams competing for Champions League qualification has weakened.
Still, seven points separate Villa and sixth-placed Liverpool, while five and six points separate them from United and Chelsea respectively.
However, with 14 games of the season remaining, Villa know how many wins would almost guarantee a top five finish, which is very likely to be enough to qualify for UEFA’s elite club competition.
In the last six Premier League seasons, teams finishing fifth have averaged 66 points, while across the last 10 campaigns, fifth-placed teams have averaged 20.3 wins.
Villa are seven wins away from reaching 67 points, and doing so would also see them finish the season with 21 victories if they win half of their remaining league matches.
As for Villa’s rivals, if Emery’s side do reach 67 points, Chelsea would need to win nine of their remaining 14 matches to match that total, while United would need the same number of wins to exceed it.
Of course, Chelsea and United could also win eight matches and draw a handful of others, but it highlights just how little margin for error there would be.
As Villa will likely only need to finish fifth this season, they could still finish below Chelsea and United and receive the same sporting reward as whoever finishes third - or even second, for that matter.
Therefore, Liverpool would be under significant pressure to finish above Villa if Emery’s side reach 67 points, as the Reds would need to win at least nine of their remaining 14 matches to have a chance.
In fact, if Villa win at least seven of their final 14 games, Liverpool would likely need to target 10 wins to finish above them.
In five of the last six seasons, 67 points has been enough to secure fifth place, making that figure a realistic minimum target for Villa.
The good news is that in every 14-game cycle Villa have played since Emery replaced Steven Gerrard, the club has averaged a points return of 25.67.
That number is almost identical to Villa’s 14-game points average since the start of last season, which stands at 25.39.
This season, Villa have averaged 32.64 points per 14-game cycle, but it would be unwise to use that figure as a projection given the club’s injury issues in recent weeks.
The most common points return from a 14-game cycle under Emery is 24 points, slightly below the overall average of 25.67.
The lowest return, however, is 19 points, meaning that if Villa were to replicate their joint-worst 14-game form under Emery between now and the end of the season, they would finish on 65 points - unlikely to be enough for a top five finish.
However, taking a conservative approach by averaging Villa’s worst and most common 14-game returns gives a total of 21.5 points. That would take Villa beyond 67 points, once again reinforcing it as a sensible minimum target.
If you’re still with me, the conclusion is that Emery’s side can likely endure a ‘below-average’ 14-game run to end the season and still secure Champions League football.
Of course, winning seven games from 14 is no easy task, but doing so would actually represent a sub-par return based on every 14-game cycle Villa have recorded since November 2023.
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