In theory, Leeds are only four games away from reaching their target yet it is hardly that simple with a tough run coming up
Isaac Johnson Leeds United reporter
05:00, 06 Feb 2026
Daniel Farke is aware of the threat Nottingham Forest pose but is not bothered by how they get on in other games
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Daniel Farke is aware of the threat Nottingham Forest pose but is not bothered by how they get on in other games(Image: James Holyoak/MB Media/Getty Images)
Daniel Farke is assured that his target of 38 points will be enough to see Leeds United secure Premier League safety and insists he is not bothered about the progress of other relegation rivals, including Friday's opponents Nottingham Forest.
Leeds can go three points clear of Forest with a win at Elland Road and more importantly go nine ahead of West Ham United in 18th having played a game more.
The Hammers have their own relegation clash away at Burnley on Saturday where the gap could revert back to six but Leeds can plant a psychological test on the shoulders of West Ham’s players by defeating Forest.
For all of Leeds’ fantastic draws against the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Everton - not to mention a 3-1 win over Chelsea in December - the club have won the same amount of league games since playing Forest away in November as they did beforehand.
That only further underlines why a win is so coveted for promotion sides and relegation rivals, with many supporters seeing the match as a must-win contest. Farke, though, has pushed back against this idea and says a draw would still be fine.
“It has the same importance as the 24 games before and the 13 games after the Forest game,” said the boss, whose side only needs 12 points to reach their target of 38
“When we speak about the 12 points needed, perhaps we need three wins and three draws. We could also do it with four wins. You could even do it in the crunch period of the season, in the last six games.
“For me, the more points we get earlier, the less pressure we have in the end. In those terms, I would rather win three points against Forest than a game later - because it makes life easier.
“I’d also rather 27 points than 26 points because in the end, I'm convinced we need 38 points. So each and every point we can win is important. There is not one game where it is bigger than the other.”
Leeds might be considered favourites given their encouraging home record. The 4-0 defeat to league leaders Arsenal on Saturday was only their third defeat at home this season and their first by more than a single goal.
They have not lost consecutive league home games since April 2024. Under the lights, the atmosphere is poised to be electric, with Leeds winning all four of their night games at Elland Road this season.
However, Farke was keen to underline that Forest have a team that qualified for Europe last season and noted their January transfer activity, having only brought in one Leeds loan player himself last month.
That said, he will remain undeterred by how Forest and other relegation rivals may fare for the rest of the season, insisting his focus is solely on Leeds. “I don't think 29 points will be enough to stay in this league,” Farke added.
“You need to come as close as possible to this one point-per-game average and if you are below this 38 points, you are in danger. Each and every point helps.
“If I’m honest, I'm not much interested in what other clubs are doing and want to rate their chances. If we stay up, then I’m a happy man, that’s all I’m concerned about.”
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As for team news, Anton Stach will miss tonight's game and next week’s trip to Chelsea due to a hip flexor issue while Lukas Nmecha is unlikely to make the cut for Friday either due to a hamstring strain.
However, defenders Jaka Bijol and James Justin did return to team training on Thursday and are in contention to feature.
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