West Ham’s victory at Turf Moor has cut the gap to Nottingham Forest to just three points, with only four goals separating the sides on goal difference. With a difficult game against Manchester United on Tuesday, attention now turns to Nuno’s side, especially as Forest face Wolves on Wednesday in a match they are widely expected to win.
It’s a demanding task, but far from impossible. The squad and manager remain convinced they can pull off another Great Escape, echoing the dramatic survival of the 2006–07 season. Alan Shearer on MOTD made it clear that the West Ham of yesterday are a more daunting relegation opponent than the soft touch of last year:
“I think there’s been a huge shift in attitude,” Shearer stated, reflecting on the Hammers. “A month ago, I thought they were gone. I thought there was no coming back from that performance and result against Wolves, but I think after that, in terms of how positive they’ve been… they played on the front foot… it was another big win for Nuno and West Ham.”
West Ham’s nine points from their last four games have dragged them back into contention: Carry that form forward through admittedly a tough fixture sequence and there’s more than a glimmer of hope.
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With thirteen games remaining, the battle for the third relegation spot could easily draw in Crystal Palace and even Tottenham Hotspur. Leeds United are technically still in danger too, but their recent surge up the table, highlighted by Friday’s 3–1 win over Forest suggests they are rapidly pulling clear.
Historically, teams need around 36 points to survive a 38‑game Premier League season. This year, however, the threshold may be higher. West Ham sit just 13 points short of that average, but 36 points has only guaranteed safety 60% of the time. Reaching 38 points raises the survival rate to 80%, and 40 points to 90%. No club has ever gone down with 43 points, though West Ham hold the unwanted record for the highest total to be relegated with, dropping out on 42 points in 2003.
Concerningly, as C and H pointed out this morning, Opta’s projections indicate that West Ham may need around 42 points again to stay up. Their simulations predict the Hammers finishing on 36 points, with Forest reaching 41 and narrowly escaping the drop.
Of course, predictions are only that—predictions. What matters now is that Nuno’s side target roughly 19 points from their remaining thirteen fixtures.