The inside track on Aston Villa as John Townley opens his notebook
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery(Image: Ryan Browne/Shutterstock)
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Aston Villa will be looking to return to winning ways on Wednesday night when they take on Brighton.
Unai Emery’s side have won only one of their last five league matches, having failed to hold onto a lead against Bournemouth in their most recent outing.
That solitary league win in recent weeks came at Newcastle - somewhere the club hadn’t won for over 20 years.
Brighton on Wednesday presents a good opportunity for Villa to build some momentum again, especially after losing their last two home league games.
Watkins’ record against Brighton
The two defeats to Brentford and Everton were disappointing, but they also serve as a reminder that Villa are not invincible at Villa Park.
Villa lacked a back-up to Ollie Watkins for the game against Everton, as Tammy Abraham had not yet replaced Donyell Malen. Then, when Villa hosted Brentford, Watkins missed the squad due to a hamstring issue.
Having returned to the starting XI against Bournemouth on Sunday, it’s expected that Watkins will lead the line again midweek.
The FA Cup tie against Newcastle may also give Abraham another chance to demonstrate how quickly he has adapted to Emery’s system.
Watkins has an exceptional record against Brighton, having scored twice at the Amex earlier this season. He has netted more goals (nine) and registered more goal involvements (11) against Brighton than any other Premier League opponent.
Indeed, he averages a goal or assist every 76 minutes against the Seagulls - the best rate of any player to have played 600+ minutes against them.
Evann Guessand of Crystal Palace
Evann Guessand of Crystal Palace(Image: Getty Images)
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Guessand’s bright start at Palace
After Leon Bailey was recalled from his loan at AS Roma, Evann Guessand was allowed to leave Villa. He did not fit Emery’s system, though questions remain about why he was often used on the right.
Some of Guessand’s more promising performances came when he played on the left, and he impressed on his debut for Palace down the middle, providing an assist for Ismaila Sarr’s winning goal.
After his bright start at Selhurst Park, some Palace fans are already hoping he joins permanently. Villa, for their part, will be pleased to see him start well, especially considering they had initially budgeted for Bailey’s departure at £19 million.
Roma obviously never took up their option to sign Bailey permanently. Instead, Palace’s potential buy option on Guessand could provide Villa with useful funds.
Palace paid a £2 million loan fee, and reports suggest the club may be obliged to buy him if certain conditions are met.
It didn’t work out for Guessand at Villa, but the club could recoup a significant portion of last summer’s outlay if he maintains consistent form at Palace.
Summer transfer questions
Emery has admitted that Villa made mistakes in the summer transfer window, with Guessand presumably one of them. Agreeing to an obligation to buy Harvey Elliott is another, though signings like Marco Bizot and Victor Lindelof have proven astute, while Jadon Sancho is starting to hit form.
There’s still a long way to go before the summer window, but it will be intriguing to see whether Villa qualify for the Champions League. Returning to Europe’s elite competition would be financially beneficial but would not completely change the club’s situation. UEFA’s squad cost rules, including the 70% wages-to-revenue limit, are still prohibitive.
Interest in Villa’s players is expected, particularly Morgan Rogers, who could shine for England at the World Cup this summer. Every player has a price, but Rogers’ value is likely to be enormous given his importance, age, and long-term contract until 2031.
These may be the final months of Emi Martínez’s time at Villa Park. Despite some errors this season, he has repeatedly demonstrated why he remains one of Europe’s top goalkeepers.
Watkins is frequently linked with a move away, but Villa were unwilling to sell last summer and now have adequate back-up in Abraham. Emery’s midfield is stacked, with Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, and Amadou Onana among the top options. John McGinn and Lamare Bogarde can also start in the double pivot.
It will be interesting to see whether Douglas Luiz does enough to justify Villa exercising his £21 million purchase option.
Villa’s success this season will partly determine the club’s flexibility in the summer transfer window, but many scenarios could unfold in the coming months.
Lee Hendrie
Lee Hendrie(Image: Photo by Pete Norton/Getty Images)
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Hendrie: Villa’s focus should be on winning Europa League
Speaking exclusively on the Footy Accumulators No Tippy Tappy Football podcast, in partnership with BOYLE Sports, former Villa midfielder Lee Hendrie has ruled Villa out of the title race and thinks Emery should focus on the Europa League.
He said: “Having watched Arsenal recently, Villa are streets behind. I look at the last two home games that Villa had against Everton and Brentford. They're games that they should be winning. And that's why I said that I feel that they've just run their course.
“Villa have got one of the best managers around for me in the world at this moment in time in Unai Emery. What he's done and achieved, I do believe that they'll finish in the top four or five.
“I feel that we'll win a trophy as well. The Europa League is there for us. Unai is a serial winner in that competition. With the way that the seasons have gone since he's taken over, the Europa Conference League, where we had a great run, the Champions League, where we had a superb run in.
“They've got a bit more experience in that squad, and having played in Europe now in the different stages, this gives them a real platform to go and get that trophy.
“You've got to sacrifice something, you've got to look logically and realistically. Winning games, obviously, the more you're ticking those teams off, and you're still in the mix for the title.
“But realistically, you’re looking at a top four or five finish and really going for a trophy, which the European one looks like a really big opportunity. It's all about trying to focus on making sure that they're in the Champions League.”
Hendrie also thinks that Emery will be disappointed that the club couldn’t do more in the January transfer window to push on.
He said: “The squad depth, when you compare it to City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, even Manchester United, they haven't been able to bring the sort of calibre of player and the squad depth of player to obviously compete.
“Unai Emery has been so frustrated. He hasn't been able to go, right, I can bring in three or four players, we are sitting third in the table, we're only a few points behind Arsenal. We can go and have a good go at this, so this is our chance to actually shine. And he hasn't been able to do it because of the financial fair play situation.”