Leeds United travel to Stamford Bridge this Tuesday to face Chelsea, looking to keep our six-point gap to the bottom three.
A comprehensive win over relegation rivals was a huge boost to our survival chances this season. Nottingham Forest were dispatched confidently, and that victory came at a good time, given Leeds’ next three Premier League games.
Leeds now have back-to-back away fixtures with fifth-placed Chelsea and third-placed Aston Villa before hosting Manchester City to round out February.
Leeds United team news confirmed pre-Chelsea: Pascal Struijk and Anton Stach out
Daniel Farke has been dealt a fresh setback regarding centre-back Pascal Struijk this week. The Dutchman is ruled out of our trip to Chelsea with a hip flexor issue.
He joins Anton Stach in being confirmed absentees, with the hope that both are back for the Villa trip after the FA Cup weekend.
Elsewhere, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been battling illness over the weekend, after his 10th goal of the season versus Forest.
Here, I look at the Leeds lineup I predict Farke could and perhaps should name at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea…
Goalkeeper: Karl Darlow
I expected Karl Darlow to keep his place for the Forest game and put that calamity performance at home to Arsenal behind him. He did.
At 0-0, Darlow made a couple of smart saves. That spring-boarded Leeds towards a key win, and his distribution was much improved too.
That calming presence is going to be needed. Especially against another side regarded as one of the best set-piece teams in the league.
If Leeds want to arrest this woeful away record, having a standout performance from our goalkeeper is vital.
In my opinion, Leeds’ performances are like last season in the sense that we should achieve our objective if our goalkeeper is okay. They don’t need to be outstanding, but being a relatively safe pair of hands should be enough.
According to Fotmob, Leeds’ 43 conceded is 6.9 more than their xG would suggest they should be on (36.1). For context, only Wolves and Bournemouth have a wider margin between their goals conceded and their xG conceded. Closing that margin would see Leeds through.
Defence: Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Jaka Bijol, Gabriel Gudmundsson, James Justin
The big decision is how you replace Pascal Struijk both in terms of personnel and influence.
Obviously, Jaka Bijol comes back into the lineup at the heart of the centre-back trio. However, Struijk being our only left-footed centre-back leaves Farke mulling over how to replace his importance in buildup.
“Pascal was a rock in the last weeks, a pity he’s not available, also the only left-footed centre-back,” Farke explained (YEP). “If you play a right-footer there it’s different passing angles. Also his strength in the air is quite important. It changes everything a little but not like we have to change our whole approach. Not ideal to not have him but on this level it happens, we need to find good solutions.”
If Farke is keen to ensure Leeds still have their left-footed passer down the left, the solution has to be Gabriel Gudmundsson. James Justin would then take up the left-wing-back role. In truth, I’d expect those two to flip with Justin directly replacing Struijk’s LCB role.
Gudmundsson has played in that role for his country and would be familiar with the sort of positions Struijk found himself in. He’d still have opportunity to carry the ball well and be covered by Justin.
Joe Rodon and Jayden Bogle keep their place on the right, obviously. The latter needs to be taken much more seriously as a very good Premier League player for us.
Midfield: Brenden Aaronson, Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev
Leeds were great in possession against Forest. I’d have fancied Brenden Aaronson to have more tangible influence on the scoreline if Ibrahim Sangare had stopped hacking his ankles for a brief moment. But alas, Aaronson’s relentless energy was integral, and should be again on the road.
Like Newcastle United away, I’m expecting Aaronson’s role to be a hybrid one. He’ll drift wide when we have the ball to link with our striker and wing-back.
Ilia Gruev of course keeps his place not only because he was incredible against Forest, but also because Farke likes his safety net in away games. Add to that the fact that Ao Tanaka is no longer trusted a lot and Sean Longstaff looked badly off the pace on Friday, and Gruev is the best option next to Ethan Ampadu.
As for the skipper, it would be a full-circle moment if he produces another standout display against his former employers. He dogged their ridiculously expensive midfield in December. Although, he has a task on his hands this time around with Moises Caicedo set to feature.
Attack: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor
Managing Dominic Calvert-Lewin becomes a more pertinent issue for Farke this week with confirmation that he’s not at 100% as things stand.
I still think he has to start because even an 80%-fit Calvert-Lewin is better as a focal point than anyone we have. He was a complete handful for Chelsea’s back four in the reverse fixture, and we’ll need that presence once more.
As I mentioned with Aaronson drifting to the right-wing, I’d expect Noah Okafor to keep his place on the left wing in a likewise role.
The Swiss winger can’t play with his back to goal. However, at Stamford Bridge, you’d hope that most of his game is in transition, driving at his marker. That’s where he causes problems, and Leeds need to simplify his game to get more out of him. Forest on Friday was his best performance in a Leeds shirt. And, it’s because he was rarely forced to do things that make us pull our hair out, instead staying wide and getting by his marker.
Full Leeds United predicted XI to face Chelsea
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