Leeds United are on course to exceed their points aim amid the threat they might have to anyway
Isaac Johnson Leeds United reporter
15:04, 11 Feb 2026
West Ham are picking up form
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West Ham are picking up form(Image: Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
Daniel Farke may have become more fluid in his tactical flexibility but in regards to the Premier League relegation battle, he has been nothing but consistent.
"Statistics show that if you have a one point average you have a good chance,” the Leeds United boss said, recently. Since the start of the season, this aim has not changed.
Tuesday’s 2-2 result at Chelsea brings Leeds within eight points of their goal with 12 matches left to play. For reference, their past 12 matches have yielded 16 points.
Replicate that again, and United will finish on 46 points - which will be more than ample to survive relegation. But would 38 points alone still be enough?
West Ham form
A month ago, there seemed little doubt this would be the case. West Ham United were in a slump and couldn’t buy a win, having gone without a league victory for eight weeks. Forest themselves had just beaten the Hammers, ending a four-game losing streak.
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West Ham are in form
Leeds had stretched an eight-point gap to West Ham in 18th and Forest were ahead by seven. Since then, the Hammers have picked up some vital results.
Consecutive wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland were interrupted by a narrow 3-2 defeat to Chelsea, where they had initially taken a two-goal lead. Then came a 2-0 win away at a woeful Burnley outfit and the Hammers were unlucky not to beat Manchester United in Tuesday's 1-1 draw.
For Leeds, the gap now stands at six points but Forest sit just two points above the drop zone albeit do have bottom Wolves at home on Wednesday evening.
Estimation game
Of course, form can be flimsy and strength of opponent always comes into play when looking at the remaining fixtures.
But if we take the points from the last six games for Leeds, Forest and West Ham and mirror that for the final 12 games, it shows how there is a world where 38 points might not be enough.
Leeds, as mentioned before, would finish on 46 points. Forest would sit on 42 but West Ham would pip ahead on 44. As underlined above, it’s hardly that simple.
Leeds have a fairly kind run-in while Forest face Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United before the final day clash against Bournemouth. For West Ham, it is Brentford away, Arsenal and Newcastle ahead of the last-day meeting at home to the Whites.
So the chances of replicating their respective recent six-game hauls reduce but still, there is a chance more than 38 points will be needed. So therefore, let's look at the history to see how likely this is.
Premier League relegation history
A tally of 36 points would have been enough to keep a team safe in each of the past nine seasons. So, Leeds are only two wins away from that.
If Leeds do reach their 38-point goal then, based on the last 30 years of 20-team Premier League history, they have an 80% chance of survival. This increases to 90% if they reach 40.
No team has been relegated with 43 points, West Ham the highest-scoring team to be relegated with 42 points in the 2002/03 season.
Just for reference, 30 points - which Leeds currently sit on - would give them a 10% chance of survival if the points stopped from today onwards.
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So will 38 points be enough? Yes, probably. But as Farke said: "It is not like if we achieve 38 points we want to stop winning.”
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