Leeds United took another big step towards Premier League safety on Tuesday.
Leeds United’s Premier League survival chances were boosted again on Tuesday night as they drew 2-2 at Chelsea.
The Whites fought back from two goals down to claim another important point on the road, with Lukas Nmecha and Noah Okafor on target within six minutes of each other. Goals either side of half-time from Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer put Chelsea in a commanding position but their visitors showed great resilience.
A comeback draw at Stamford Bridge is a great result in isolation but feels even better, given the relegation battle picture. The point ensured Leeds maintained their six-point gap on 18th-placed West Ham, who drew 1-1 against Manchester United, while climbing above Tottenham Hotspur into 15th.
Spurs lost 2-1 at home to Newcastle United on Tuesday night and are in deep trouble, with head coach Thomas Frank sacked on Wednesday morning following two wins in 17 league games. Fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest host Wolves this evening in a must-win game.
Following Tuesday night’s results, statistical experts Opta updated their Premier League predictions and it’s good reading for Leeds, who are now expected to finish the season in 15th. Daniel Farke’s side have been tipped to pick up 45 points come May and have been given just a 4.82 per cent chance of being relegated.
With Leeds on 30 points currently, Opta expect them to continue performing above their point-per-game target to pick up 15 points from their final 12 games. That could be as simple as five wins and seven defeats, or a combination of fewer wins with some draws in there too.
Leeds have a higher percentage chance of relegation than Spurs (3.95%) but significantly lower than Opta’s predictions for Nottingham Forest (15.15%), West Ham (74.57%), Burnley (99.65%) and Wolves (100%). Interestingly, it is the Hammers they expect to finish the season in that third and final relegation place.
How many points Leeds United need to survive
Opta also predict West Ham to finish the season on 36 points, with Nuno Espirito Santo’s side expected to accumulate 12 more points from their final 12 matches. Should that prove to be the case, Leeds won’t need to pick up their predicted 15 extra points, instead needing just seven to avoid relying on goal difference.
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In such a scenario, Leeds could reach that 37-point mark with just three positive results from their final 12 games, with two wins and a draw enough to bring seven more points. With the likes of Burnley, Wolves, Sunderland, Brentford and Brighton all due at Elland Road before the season is over, it would take a monumental collapse for that not to happen.
Regardless of whether Leeds need 36, 40 or even more points to survive, they are well-placed to retain their Premier League status following Tuesday’s draw. And while Farke has had certain milestones in mind, the Whites boss insists his main goal is simply to pick up as many points as possible between now and May.
“We want to win as many points as possible,” he said earlier this week. “I would say one point per game average is a really good chance to stay up. If it’s one in 20 seasons where you need more then we have to win more. Not too concentrated on doing too much maths, more on playing good football games.”
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