Aston Villa are considered strong favourites by the Opta supercomputer when they host Newcastle United in the FA Cup on Saturday. Look ahead to the game at Villa Park with our prediction and preview of the fourth round clash.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
The Opta Supercomputer rates Aston Villa as the clear favourites in this clash with Newcastle United with a win probability of 54.3% compared to the Magpies’ 22.2%.
Aston Villa have knocked Newcastle out of the FA Cup on four previous occasions.
Newcastle have lost 10 of their last 13 away from home at Premier League opponents in the FA Cup.
Aston Villa and Newcastle United can both count on an encouraging omen ahead of Saturday’s FA Cup fourth-round tie.
The Premier League rivals will square off at Villa Park in the world’s oldest cup competition, with both teams sure to be fancying their chances of lifting the trophy come May.
And history suggests that could certainly be a possibility. Indeed, in five of the previous six seasons that Aston Villa and Newcastle have met in the FA Cup, at least one of Villa (1895, 1897, 1905, 1924) or Newcastle (1905, 1924, 1952) have reached the final that year. In fact, on two of those occasions, the sides actually met in the final (1904-05 and 1923-24).
Villa – who beat Brighton 1-0 in the Premier League on Wednesday – were 2-1 victors over Tottenham at this exact stage of the competition 12 months ago, with Jacob Ramsey and Morgan Rogers the goalscorers for the Villans on that day.
However, they have not gone beyond round four in consecutive seasons since doing so between 2008-09 and 2010-11.
Rogers has been particularly influential for Villa in the FA Cup, having been involved in four goals in five starts for the Villans in the competition (3 goals, 1 assist).
He scored and assisted in last season’s win over Tottenham, and was also on target in their round-three triumph over Spurs last month. Ramsey, meanwhile, could line up for the opposition here.
Newcastle, who come into this game on the back of the high of beating Tottenham 2-1 in the Premier League on Tuesday, have won six of their last 11 away games in the FA Cup (D2 L3), having gone 15 without a win on the road beforehand. Ramsey was on target in the win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The Magpies have lost 10 of their last 13 away from home at Premier League opponents, however (W2 D1), failing to score in eight of their last nine.
Eddie Howe has selection issues in midfield for this clash. Newcastle will definitely be without Joelinton and Lewis Miley, while Bruno Guimarães is a doubt after he felt an issue with his hamstring in the Tottenham win.
Unai Emery’s problems have also been in the engine room in recent weeks, with Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, and John McGinn all sidelined. Full-back Matty Cash is also expected to miss out after he was absent against Brighton.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Villa and Newcastle have met on six occasions in the FA Cup, with the former edging it in terms of the head-to-head.
The Villans have overcome the Magpies on four occasions, doing so in 1894-95, 1896-97, 1904-05, and 2000-01.
Newcastle’s two triumphs over Villa, meanwhile, came in the 1923-24 final and in the third round in 1951-52.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction
Villa are riding high in third in the Premier League, and the Opta supercomputer certainly fancies their chances of beating Newcastle in this clash.
Indeed, the supercomputer rates Villa’s chances of victory on home soil as high as 54.3%.
By contrast, Newcastle are given just a 22.2% win probability of reaching the fifth round, while a draw (and consequently the need for extra time and potentially penalties) is a 23.5% chance.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle match prediction
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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