Four of the Premier League’s current bottom-six sides play in Week 38, but will the relegation picture be decided before the season’s final day?
Wolves and Burnley face long odds to get out of the bottom three, but West Ham’s success has the drop zone scrap looking about six teams deep midway through February.
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What will it take to stay up?
Seventeenth-place Nottingham Forest are on pace for 39.46 points, making 40 feel like a bit of a magic number through that figure could be higher given the improvement of West Ham, who are on pace for just over 35 points.
The last few 18th-place teams had point totals of 25 (Leicester City), 26 points (Luton Town), 27 (Nottingham Forest), 35 (Burnley), and 28 (Fulham). With West Ham on 24 points, Forest on 27, and four more teams not too far away, this feels like a season that will require a bigger figure to stay safe.
Current Premier League relegation table picture
13. Crystal Palace — 32 points, -4 goal differential
14. Brighton — 31 points, 0 GD
15. Leeds United — 30 points, -9 GD
16. Tottenham Hotspur — 29 points, -1 GD
17. Nottingham Forest — 27 points, -13 GD
18. West Ham United — 24 points, -17 GD
19. Burnley — 18 points, -23 GD
20. Wolverhampton Wanderers — 9 points, -32 GD
Important ‘six-point’ fixtures left this Premier League season
March 14: Crystal Palace vs Leeds United
April 11: West Ham vs Wolves
April 11: Burnley vs Brighton
April 18: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
April 18: Crystal Palace vs West Ham
April 18: Leeds United vs Wolves
May 2: Leeds United vs Burnley
May 9: Brighton vs Wolves
May 17: Leeds United vs Brighton
May 24: Burnley vs Wolves
May 24: West Ham vs Leeds United
When can Wolves, Burnley be relegated?
Wolves and Burnley boast different max points total, though only the most optimistic supporter is expecting the sides to collect three points times their remaining games.
Wolves currently max out with 45 points and Burnley can get 54. With 17th-place Forest on 27 points, great escapes are still possible.
At the moment, 20th-place Wolves are 18 points back of Forest. Six more losses would essentially seal their fate in the bottom three even if Forest fail to claim any more points.
Burnley in 19th have more hope at nine points behind Forest. To reach the projected cut-off of 39-40 points, they’ll need to get 22 more points.
Premier League relegation zone prediction
Tottenham Hotspur, 48 points
Brighton & Hove Albion, 43 points
Crystal Palace, 41 points
Leeds United, 39 points
Nottingham Forest, 36 points
West Ham, 35 points
Burnley, 28 points
Wolves, 20 points