How will Newcastle United fare in their Champions League clash against Qarabag?
The Magpies finished 12th during the league phase, ahead of the likes of Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Napoli on 14 points. Now, they must face a playoff clash against Azeri champions Qarabag FK.
Eddie Howe’s cause is not helped by a long-term injury sustained by captain and talisman Bruno Guimaraes. However, he will feel his side still have more than enough to keep their European adventure going.
So, how will Newcastle do against this intriguing opponent that is not to be taken lightly? We’ve asked X’s AI chatbot, Grok, for a prediction.
Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK Champions League prediction
First leg prediction (Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United, Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku – 18th February 2026)
Grok: Without the injured Bruno Guimarães' control, Newcastle may start cautiously on the road, wary of Qarabag's high press and fervent crowd. Sandro Tonali will need to shield the defence effectively, but early errors could prove costly. The hosts seize the initiative, breaking quickly as Camilo Duran latches onto a through ball to fire past Nick Pope for the opener.
The Magpies respond after the break, Anthony Gordon's direct running stretching the home rearguard. He equalises with a clinical finish following a swift counter. Joelinton picks up a yellow card for a late challenge amid rising frustration. Qarabag press for a winner late, but Malick Thiaw’s block and Pope's sharp stop from Abdellah Zoubir keep it level. A hard-fought draw leaves the tie open, with Newcastle's quality tempered by adaptation challenges in midfield.
Scoreline prediction: Qarabag 1-1 Newcastle United (Camilo Duran for Qarabag; Anthony Gordon for Newcastle)
Second leg prediction (Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK, St James' Park – 24th February 2026)
Grok: Level on aggregate at St James' Park, Newcastle feed off the home atmosphere to dominate possession and territory. Tonali grows in influence, linking play intelligently, while Joelinton's physicality disrupts Qarabag's build-up. Pressure mounts early; Gordon delivers a dangerous cross, met by a powerful header from Joelinton to edge the hosts ahead.
Qarabag chase the game, exposing themselves to counters. A pivotal moment arrives when their defender, Matheus Silva, receives a second yellow for hauling down Gordon, leaving them with 10 men. Lewis Miley capitalises on the extra space, threading a pass for Harvey Barnes to slot home coolly. Newcastle seal it late as Gordon adds a third on the break, rounding the keeper after a quick transition. Pope makes a key late save from Leandro Andrade, but the Magpies manage proceedings without further drama in a professional display. Progression is secured despite the Guimarães absence, highlighting squad resilience.
Scoreline prediction: Newcastle United 3-0 Qarabag FK (Joelinton, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon for Newcastle)
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