A statistical examination of Everton's last five Premier League games at home and last five away with how they differ
David Moyes has cured Everton’s travel sickness in emphatic fashion, but the Blues are struggling for home comforts of late so are the team really doing anything differently in the way they play at Hill Dickinson Stadium?
While Everton have won 11 of their 22 away matches since their Glaswegian gaffer returned – having triumphed on the road just once in the Premier League over the previous 12 months and that was against Ipswich Town who went straight back down to the Championship after back-to-back promotions – they have now failed to taste victory in their last half a dozen fixtures at their new 52,769 capacity base by the banks of the Mersey. Here’s an examination on Comparisonator of the Blues’ statistics from their most recent five Premier League home games, which they’ve failed to win; and their most recent five away matches, over which they remained unbeaten to contrast the numbers.
Using Comparisonator’s MyTeam2MyTeam tool, we can collate all of Everton’s figures from that block of home fixtures and place them against the away ones. Comparisonator uses league weights in terms of competition, positional difficulties and team quality applied across 167 parameters to calculate Artificial Intelligence points and overall, Everton’s score in the away games is 3,026, a 15% increase on their home score of 2,629.
However, while the Blues score higher for offensive AI points away (772 to 726), they’re actually higher at home over this period for defensive AI points (569 to 513); duels AI points (697 to 611); and passing AI points (639 to 588), although they are marginally better on their travels for AI overall fitness performance (3,516 to 3,435), based on mobility, stamina and agility in 68 physical criteria. How can these differences be displayed in tangible figures though?
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Here are Everton’s numbers crunched across different categories...
Physical
There’s nothing in it in terms of the Blues’ overall running and figures show barely a quarter of a percent difference between the 105,733km they’ve covered in home games over this period and 105,457 away. However, there is a 14% increase in high acceleration count – covering more than 3 metres-a-second – away from home (272 to 238) and a 7.7% increase in sprint count, which means runs in excess of 25km/h (185 to 171).
Everton's heat map from their last five Premier League home games (left) and away games (right)
Everton's heat map from their last five Premier League home games (left) and away games (right)
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Offensive
Everton have got a higher expected goals (xG) rate at home (1.43 to 1.15) which suggests they’re missing their chances more at Hill Dickinson Stadium and anyone who attended the 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth last time out could tell you that. There’s not much in it for shooting with slightly more shots at home (10.6 to 10) but more shots on target away (4 to 3.8).
The Blues are dribbling more at home (24 to 17.4); having more successful dribbles (11 to 9.6) and dribbles in the final third of the pitch (19.2 to 11.4) and they are carrying out more offensive actions (287 to 237). However, their play away appears crisper as on their travels they have more ball carrying (3.4 to 2.8) and opportunities (8.2 to 7.2).
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Defensive
Here, we can spot one of the biggest discrepancies in Everton’s play with a 69% difference in their high pressing at home compared to away (13 to 4). They are also making 8.5% more ball recoveries at home (93.8 to 85.8) but away there are 31% more interceptions (46.2 to 35.4) and 15% more clearances (6.2 to 5.4).
Passing
The Blues are moving the ball around more at Hill Dickinson Stadium and, despite results, have been having better at it. They’ve made 16% more passes (403 to 340); 17% more successful passes (335 to 277); 6% more successful long passes (22.4 to 21); 22% more passes to the final third (52.2 to 40.6) and 26% more successful passes to the final third (37.4 to 27.8).
The list continues with 28% more for both passes in the opposition half (198 to 142) and successful passes in the opposition half (166 to 120). Everton are putting in 35% more crosses (15.6 to 10.2) and 39% more successful crosses (6.2 to 3.8).
Duels
Additionally, Moyes’ men are also faring better in one-on-one encounters in front of their home supporters. They’re contesting 10% more duels (210 to 189) and winning 13% more of them (101 to 87.6), although it must be noted this is a success rate of 48%, so they’re still losing more than half.
Everton’s players are taking part in 24% more aerial duels at home (60 to 45.6) and winning 26% more (29.6 to 21.8), but again the success rate of 49% is less than half. They’re contesting 4% more ground duels at home (150 to 144) and 43% more pressing duels (18.8 to 10.8).
*Comparisonator is a football data comparison tool from 271 professional leagues around the world which compares players and clubs by utilising over 100 different parameters. Click here for more details.