Roll the clock back to last weekend and after Liverpool took a 1-0 lead against Manchester City in a compelling game at Anfield, Arsenal were closing in on what may have been an impregnable nine-point lead with just 13 games left to play.
Just a week later, City’s late comeback against Liverpool, coupled with Arsenal’s failure to beat Keith Andrews’ impressive Bees, has changed the complexion of the title race and reduced the lead at the top to a mere four points for Mikel Arteta’s Gunners.
The Arsenal fans venting their concerns on the radio phone-ins after the draw at Brentford highlight their fears that their team may be about to blow their title chances yet again, with the statistics from this season exposing a few uncomfortable realities for a side that have been top of the table for most of the campaign.
Arsenal's Gabriel and Declan Rice (right) react after the Premier League match at Brentford: Photo: John Walton/PA Wire.
Arsenal's Gabriel and Declan Rice (right) react after the Premier League match at Brentford: Photo: John Walton/PA Wire.
After finishing second for the past three seasons, Arteta knew he needed to go one better this time and, with most of his biggest rivals losing their way, it seemed as if this was the year for Arsenal to finally re-enter the winners’ circle.
Yet the statistics from this curious campaign suggest Arsenal have not made strides forward from their recent near misses, with the troubles for Liverpool, Chelsea and the rest giving a false impression that they have moved through the gears.
Arsenal currently lead the Premier League with 57 points, which is six fewer than Liverpool had at this stage last season and a long way behind the totals the truly great Premier League sides have posted.
Manchester City are nine points ahead of the total they had at the same stage of last season, but they are a long way off the pace they were setting when Guardiola’s dream teams were setting records.
In the 2017/18 season that saw City break through the 100-point barrier, Pep’s dream team had 69 points at this stage of the campaign, 12 more than Arsenal are on right now.
By contrast, Arsenal only have four points more than they had after 26 Premier League matches last year and they have also scored fewer goals this season, so it is hard to argue against the theory that the decline of their rivals is the primary reason why they’re leading the title race.
What comes next will dictate how Arteta and his team are remembered and, after a succession of near misses in Premier League title races and cup competitions over the last five years, the omens may not be good for Arsenal.
Ten wins from their final 12 matches would give Arsenal the title, assuming they avoid defeat in what is rapidly looking like a title decider against Manchester City in mid-April, but history suggests this is not the time of the season when Arteta’s side thrive.
Arsenal collected just 21 points from their final 12 matches last season and a repeat of that this time would leave the door wide open for City to overhaul the lead the Gunners have held for so long. Sporting greatness can only be truly measured by the weight of silverware and if Arsenal can get their first trophy ticked off when they face Manchester City in the League Cup final at Wembley on March 22, it could signal the start of a rush of success that will allow them to banish their tag as nearly men.
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta reacts as Brentford manager Keith Andrews looks on. Photo: Paul Childs/Reuters
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta reacts as Brentford manager Keith Andrews looks on. Photo: Paul Childs/Reuters
Alternatively, if they lose that Wembley clash and surrender their advantage in the Premier League title race, the Arsenal train that appeared to be on course for a trophy windfall a few short weeks ago could run off the rails.
Arteta can’t allow such a negative mindset to linger around his team and he needs to remind his players that this season’s story can have a different ending for a number of reasons.
While their points tally may not reflect huge progress, there is no doubt that the Arsenal squad has more depth than it boasted a year ago.
Some shrewd investment last summer saw the arrival of defender Martin Zubimendi and the attacking trio of Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyokeres and Eberechi Eze, while there is tangible evidence that the mindset around this team has also shifted.
Arsenal have generally coped with setbacks better this season than in recent years, as this has been a team that has struggled to bounce back from a big defeat.
Last month’s 3-2 home defeat against Manchester United was the kind of moment that could have sent shockwaves through Arteta’s dressing room, yet they snapped back by winning four successive matches in three competitions, keeping clean sheets in three of those matches.
So instead of fearing what may go wrong for his team over the next few weeks, Arteta should be urging his players to believe they still have a glorious chance to make this the most successful season in the club’s history. Arsenal should be confident of beating Wigan in the FA Cup at Emirates Stadium today and then they can focus on two Premier League matches that should yield six points.
Arsenal's Noni Madueke celebrates scoring his side's goal during the Premier League tie against Brentford at Gtech Community Stadium. Photo: Eddie Keogh/Getty Images
Arsenal's Noni Madueke celebrates scoring his side's goal during the Premier League tie against Brentford at Gtech Community Stadium. Photo: Eddie Keogh/Getty Images
A trip to face rock-bottom Wolves next Wednesday night will offer them a great chance to extend their lead at the top of the table to seven points and the prospect of facing struggling Tottenham in next Sunday’s North London derby should tick off another three points for Arteta.
That’s how a team of winners would look at the challenge over the next week, but this Arsenal team have yet to prove they fall into that category.
A glance at the odds for the four competitions the Gunners are competing in confirms they are favourites to win them all, but there is a lingering sense that Arteta’s side have missed too many chances to cement their status as champions-elect and now they can feel the heat of serial winner Guardiola on their shoulders.
The moment has come for Arteta to prove he can turn promise into genuine success, but that may prove to be beyond him if the demons of the past few seasons return to haunt his team once again.