According to the Perplexity AI model we used, both North East sides could be on course for a dramatic clash, with the potential for silverware at stake.
The simulation, designed to forecast the remainder of this season’s FA Cup using match probabilities and a mock draw, sets up a high-stakes quarter-final clash between the Championship side and their Premier League rivals.
In a projected fifth-round draw, Regis Le Bris' side are drawn away to Championship side Norwich City.
AI predicts a tight contest but gives Sunderland a "slight edge" based on current form, suggesting they would progress with a late victory or possibly after penalties.
In the quarter-finals, however, the narrative takes a dramatic turn as Sunderland are drawn away to bitter rivals Newcastle.
Another Tyne-Wear derby might be in the offing. (Image: Steve Welsh/PA)
This is where Sunderland's run ends according to the AI model, which predicted Newcastle will end the Black Cats cup run and book a place in the semi-finals at their expense of their North East neighbours.
The simulated route shows Sunderland’s hopes ending one step short of the final four, while Newcastle go on to reach Wembley.
From there, the AI predicts another big result for the Magpies.
Despite being considered underdogs against Arsenal in a one-off game at Wembley, the simulation suggests Newcastle could pull off a narrow win, either 2-1 or on penalties.
However, the model does not foresee a fairytale ending.
In the final, Newcastle are predicted to meet Manchester City - who are tipped to defeat Liverpool in the other semi-final.
There would be no repeat of Eddie Howe lifting silverware according to AI. (Image: John Walton/PA Wire)
Despite Newcastle’s progress, the AI gives City a strong advantage in both quality and experience, suggesting they would lift the trophy at Wembley.
Recommended reading
While Sunderland's journey ends in the last eight, Newcastle finish the tournament as runners-up.
The AI summarises Sunderland’s route as follows: reaching the quarter-finals with a win at Norwich, only to be knocked out by Newcastle at St James’ Park.
Newcastle’s simulated path continues past Sunderland, through Arsenal at Wembley, and into a final where Manchester City ultimately come out on top.