Leeds United travel to Aston Villa this weekend with Daniel Farke looking for another surprise away result to raise survival hopes further.
Leeds return to Premier League action this weekend with one of our toughest away days of the season against Aston Villa.
The Villans are third in the Premier League and may be smelling blood after Arsenal’s latest dropped points away to Wolves.
Leeds United head to Aston Villa with better underlying numbers than Unai Emery’s side
Unai Emery’s side are rightly at the top end of the Premier League table this season. The Villans have been superb and have picked up a number of big results on their way to challenging Arsenal and Manchester City for the title.
However, the underlying numbers behind their performance this season don’t reflect a side that should be in the top three. Instead, their performance regarding xG and other metrics suggests they should be below Daniel Farke’s United.
Leeds United League Rank Stat League Rank Aston Villa
37.4 11th xG for 12th 32.0
39.2 17th xG against 9th 36.4
-1.8 11th xG difference 12th -4.4
As shown here, Leeds are creating more chances to score than Villa in the Premier League, while conceding more chances too. However, the difference between Leeds’ attack and defence is smaller than Villa’s.
Leeds’ ‘expected goal difference’ would have them higher than Villa in the table, if every club were to perform at expected levels.
To quote Gino D’Acampo: If my grandmother had wheels, she would’ve been a bike.
Daniel Farke discusses Leeds United outperforming Aston Villa’s underlying numbers
There’s obviously a lot more to it than ‘the team with the best xG comes out on top’. Leeds ended up champions last season with the best underlying numbers by a country mile, but were made to work much harder than the metrics suggested. Leeds’ xG difference was treble that of Burnley, who ended the league behind us merely on goal difference alone.
Farke was asked about this metric and Leeds’ better standing than Villa on expected goals. To which, he was full of praise for his opposite number.
“They are very effective, very switched on in decisive moments,” Farke said, per the YEP.
“Says a lot about the individual quality of the players, they step up when it counts with a top finish. Offensive players can score many goals. It’s easy to get jealous when you look at their individual quality in all positions. Overall a really good group of players, Unai doing a fantastic job. This is why they are in such a good position.”
Leeds United warned against ruthless Aston Villa side despite strong stat reveal
This sort of statistic shouldn’t be used as a stick to beat Villa with. It’s a testament to how well they’ve been able to finish chances and defend their box.
If anything, it’s also a show of how well Leeds have done to create chances and defend on par statistically with a side currently vying for the title.
However, football is not won on spreadsheets, even if they’re a solid indicator of quality. Villa have scored numerous goals through overperformance, thanks to the brilliance of Morgan Rogers more than anyone.
The England star has scored three from outside the box, and this is where the ‘xg overperformance’ comes from. He’s scored eight this season from 4.87xG, but anyone watching him knows that if you give him space on the edge of the box, you’re asking to concede.
It shouldn’t be assumed that Leeds are going to be a Villa side on part with us due to similar xG differences. Because that’s not how it works.
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