In the Premier League table that matters most Aston Villa are 12 places and 20 points ahead of Leeds United, but another shows them below the Whites.
There is a certain stigma attached to the phrase 'underlying numbers' in parts of West Yorkshire. It's a refrain Leeds fans can still hear, from an era that is not looked back upon with great fondness. Jesse Marsch repeatedly pointed to the metrics that suggested his team should have been midtable, numbers that suggested he would have kept them up. Numbers that did not tally with the actual points on the board and the results that were needed to keep his job or the faith of the Leeds faithful. The phrase has been used as a stick to beat him with ever since.
This season the underlying numbers do not tally when it comes to Aston Villa and where they are in the Premier League table. The xG [Expected Goals] table ranks teams based on their xG stats. The measurement of how good the chances they created were, an indication of how many goals they could have expected to score given the quality and quantity of chances created. The xG table works out Expected Points to reflect how many points a team was expected to earn from their matches, based on the quality of their chances. It is a simulation that awards points for wins, draws or losses based on xG. Simply put, an alternative view of Premier League performance for the 20 teams involved in a season.
Aston Villa sit third in the Premier League with a truly impressive haul of 50 points from their 26 games. They are eight points off first-placed Arsenal, with a game in hand. They are only three points behind Manchester City, who have also played 26 games. Whether Unai Emery considers them in a title race or not, they are at least in the conversation. But in the xG table they are nowhere to be seen in the top half. In that table they sit directly below Leeds in 12th, because Leeds' underlying numbers give them an Expected Points tally of 37, whereas Villa's numbers give them 32 points. They are outperforming their xG by five goals. They have conceded 27 but could have expected to concede 36.4 times from the quality of chances opposition sides have created. They are outperforming their Expected Points by a full 18.
When a team underperforms in terms of xG or xPts, it can mean that they are creative but wasteful. Dominant but lacking efficiency. Deserving of more. The opposite can be said of a team that wildly outperformers their underlying numbers. They do not waste chances. They can score from situations where teams are simply not expected to score. They earn results that might not be entirely deserved based on overall performance.
Daniel Farke says that Villa's overperformance of these numbers speak to the players in Villa's side who can make magic happen. "They're very effective," he said. "Switched on in decisive moments and it says a lot about the individual quality of players. They step up when it counts and are there with a top finish. When it's not a big chance, still putting it in the net. They have players who make things happen and score many goals. It's easy to get jealous if you look at their individual quality, but not just in offence. They have to deal with injuries to key players too. A really good group of players. Unai is doing a fantastic job there, overall this is why they're in such a fantastic position."
Football data site whoscored.com lists shooting from direct free-kicks, creating long shot opportunities and creating chances through individual skill among their key strengths. Players like Morgan Rogers, who can score from distance and produce incredible finishes from all manner of areas and situations, have been absolutely instrumental.
The game between the two sides at Elland Road can be seen as pretty instructive as to how Villa have fared this season. Leeds took the lead and probably should have gone 2-0 up. But Rogers scored from a difficult chance at the near post and then stroked home a beautiful direct free-kick. Leeds hit the net again when Dan James raced into the penalty area to put the ball beyond the keeper, but it was chalked off because it flicked off Dominic Calvert-Lewin's hand. Pascal Struijk saw a close-range header well saved. Leeds created an xG of 1.55 to Aston Villa's 1.21. Aston Villa won the game 2-1.
Beating a side like Villa is a tall order for many reasons. Emery is clearly a fantastic manager, capable of inspiring greatness from his squad. Rogers, Ollie Watkins and Emi Buendia represent a serious goal threat and creativity with 21 goals and eight assists between them. And even if they as a side fail to produce their very best football, they can still punish mistakes or slips in devastating fashion like they did in the first meeting with Leeds earlier this season. So the task for Leeds will be to try and not only outrun, outwork and outperform their hosts at Villa Park, but outfinish them.
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