In the 2021/22 season, Nottingham Forest achieved promotion to the Premier League through the play-offs, despite being rock bottom of the league after eight games.
The sacking of Chris Houghton and subsequent appointment of Steve Cooper inspired a change of fortunes that has been mirrored somewhat by the work of Philippe Clement, in his short tenure at Norwich so far, and although it is often in the form of a tongue-in-cheek comment, many fans are eyeing up a trip to Wembley to conclude our season.
When Clement was appointed as City’s head coach on the 18th November 2025, the Canaries were firmly in the relegation zone, only above the financially troubled Sheffield Wednesday.
Since his appointment, Norwich have taken 30 points from their 17 league games in charge, averaging 1.76 points per game (ppg), along with reaching the fifth round of the FA Cup.
Having taken 12 points out of the last available 15, the only points being dropped the result of an away clash with second-in-the-league Middlesbrough, is it too much to dream of a late surge for the play-off positions?
On average, in the last five seasons the average number of points to finish sixth is 73. The lowest was last season as Liam Manning guided Bristol City to a play-off finish with 68 points, while the highest points total was Bournemouth in the 2020/21 season who culminated 77 points.
However, it must be noted that they were seven points clear of seventh place. If you were to extrapolate this season’s table using each team’s ppg, then the play-off threshold would sit around the 69-point mark.
There are just nine points between Norwich in 17th and Derby in sixth, highlighting just how close the table is and perhaps a further indication that a lower points tally may be enough to record a play-off finish.
Currently, the Canaries have amassed 39 points from their 32 games, but 30 of these points have been achieved under Clement in just the 17 games. If we were to continue to pick up points at that rate, then we would finish around the 64-point mark, which, using the above estimates, would place us comfortably mid-table and potentially slightly higher.
To achieve the 70-point mark, this would mean we would need to push on even further and average over two points a game. To refer back to the Nottingham Forest analogy, after 32 games, they sat on 48 points, we are on 39, and they eventually finished fourth with 80 points.
The Forest board dismissed Hughton in September 2021 and appointed Cooper on September 21st, nearly two months before Clement’s arrival, if we were to line the seasons up.
Ben Knapper’s decision not to relieve Manning of his duties earlier, perhaps influenced by Mark Attanasio’s public display of support, which included the appraisal of Shane Duffy as our season’s saviour, may ultimately mean that the play-offs are one step too far for this Norwich side.
On the flip side, if Manning had been sacked earlier, then Clement’s services may not have been available. What position would we be in now if this had occurred?
However, a further glimpse of hope is our remaining fixtures. We have yet to play eight of the teams that currently occupy the nine spots between third and 11th.
Although this will bring an added difficulty to each game, it also provides a golden opportunity to bring down the points threshold required for a play-off place, and any points earned, wins especially, may well count for double.
We also still have to play Sheffield Wednesday, Charlton, Leicester, Portsmouth, who are all currently at the wrong end of the table, and neither of the top two. If you had to design the ideal run-in for a team in our position, it would include all the teams currently hiding us from the top six, and our run-in is not far off this, with the added sprinkle of some struggling sides in there.
Although highly improbable, a play-off finish is still mathematically achievable and could be the dream finish to the season for this rejuvenated Norwich side.
With Clement at the wheel, and Mo Toure unable to stop scoring, nothing seems impossible.