Complacency is not a commodity found in large quantities around Elland Road but there is logic-based evidence for optimism ahead of Leeds United's run-in.
The night is always darkest before the dawn and Leeds' next two fixtures could hardly be more difficult, at least on paper. Aston Villa sit third in the table and are in the title conversation, if not the race thanks to that game in hand and Arsenal being bitten on the backside by Wolves in midweek. After a trip to Villa Park it's another meeting with a title hopeful when Manchester City come to Elland Road and the threat they pose speaks for itself. But beyond those two games, Leeds can look forward to some very winnable games, especially at home where they have been so successful on their Premier League return.
Predictions are folly, as Marcelo Bielsa once said, but they are fun. Leeds are hard to predict in terms of team selection and sometimes formation but you can generally rely on them to give themselves a chance in games. And at Elland Road they have been a pretty safe bet for positive results. It's that fact that means predicting the rest of the season for Daniel Farke's men does not feel all that difficult or unsafe. And this week the Inside Elland Road podcast strode boldly into the hypothetical and the unknown to make predictions on every Leeds result between now and the end of the season.
The aim of the game was to arrive at a points tally that we believe is achievable for the Whites from their remaining fixtures. But to ascertain a position, we also had to predict every other Premier League fixture left to be played by other teams. Therein lay the greatest difficulty because watching, studying and producing content about Leeds United not only leads to a little bias, it gives a greater idea of their likelihood of success in games. For other clubs we don't watch or study half as often, predictions are harder to make. That said, when Manchester City, Chelsea or Arsenal are hosting clubs at the other end of the table, reason dictates that they will take most of those opportunities for points.
Inside Elland Road presenter Chris O'Connor is a well-known optimist but insisted he tried to be as harsh as he could with his Leeds predictions. He picked Leeds to lose to Man City, Bournemouth and Spurs and begrudgingly predicted a draw with Man Utd and still ended up with a predicted points total of 49 points - good enough for a 10th-place finish. I was harsher, but not much. I can see defeats at the hands of Villa, Man City, Man Utd, Bournemouth and Spurs, with draws against Sunderland, Crystal Palace. That meant five more wins, 47 points and 13th place in the table. And where both of us had Wolves finishing bottom and Burnley 19th, Chris had Nottingham Forest to go down and West Ham finished 18th in my table.
Having invited submissions from listeners, a theme developed. Final positions showing Leeds well clear of the drop zone and at dizzying heights in the table. Current rivals dropping as Leeds ascend. Beyond one obvious cause - bias - there is another factor at play in all of this. Leeds United's run-in is just so much more favourable than the ones that lie ahead for everyone else. It is easier to see Leeds picking up points because their home games in particular are decidedly winnable. They face enough of the teams around them to be in with a realistic chance of a decent points haul. Others, like West Ham United, have a more daunting time of it. The Hammers have to travel to Liverpool, Fulham, Villa and Newcastle. They will welcome Man City, Arsenal and Leeds to London. Nottingham Forest travel to Man City, Sunderland, Chelsea and Man Utd and still have to host Liverpool, Villa and Newcastle. Crystal Palace have it bad and so too do Spurs and Brighton.
A number of 'strength of opposition' models have Leeds first or second in the Premier League for the 'easiest' run-in, with West Ham bottom of that particular table and other relegation rivals nearer the Hammers than the Whites. Even if Leeds slip up in a home game or two, there is no guarantee they will be punished by the teams around them. There is a margin for error that still sees them staying up. Supporters burned too many times by the club's penchant for the traumatic will not want to hear that, whether data or logic bears it out or not. That is one reason why Leeds will not be complacent. The nature and character of Farke and his captain Ethan Ampadu are among other reasons.
Every game in the Premier League is difficult - just ask Mikel Arteta this week - but some definitely provide more challenges than others. Leeds' challenge is simply to remain as consistently competitive as they have been, keep the fans onside so that Elland Road remains a cauldron of supportive noise rather than a bag of nerves, and take the opportunity their results and the fixture computer have delivered.
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