Quite often in the Premier League, matches can be decided by the finest of margins. It might take a lucky bounce falling to the feet of an open attacker, an error from a goalkeeper, or the woodwork denying a team an all-important goal.
The latter can be especially cruel, particularly as the attacking team has come within inches of scoring. In 2025/26, it's Manchester United who lead the way when it comes to hitting the bar and post, with 18 strikes coming close to finding the back of the net.
But what if their fortunes were different? How might the Premier League look if we took goalposts out of the picture completely? The team at Opta have crunched the numbers to find out how those nearly-moments would have changed matches if the shots had actually gone in. And there's a notable change in the English top flight.
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Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in: 20-16
Marco Silva
While the top of the table would look remarkably different, there's very little change in the relegation zone. All of Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley and West Ham remain in the bottom three, and in the case of the two teams in claret and blue, they would actually be worse off.
Burnley lose one point, while Nuno Espirito Santo's side would lose three, putting them even further adrift of safety. Although Wolves would still be at the foot of the table, the Old Gold would at least have an extra point to their name.
Nottingham Forest remain 17th, and while the Tricky Trees do lose two points, West Ham's misfortune would open up the gap between the two to four points. But in 16th lie Fulham, who actually lose more points than all teams. Marco Silva's side, who currently lie 12th on 34 points, would have five removed from their tally if the woodwork was not there to save them.
Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in (20-16)
Rank
20
19
18
17
16
Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in: 15-11
gallagher tottenham
Although Leeds United would actually be on fewer points than they are presently, other teams dropping around them means that the Whites would in fact remain 15th in this hypothetical table. Crystal Palace, however, would drop one spot due to rival clubs rising.
Tottenham have endured a difficult season under Thomas Frank, who has since been replaced by Igor Tudor. But while critics have been within their rights to target the north Londoners, there has been an element of unluckiness too. Spurs would in fact have two extra points had the post and bar been taken out of play, rising from 16th to 13th.
Brighton, though, are one of the bigger winners here, as four extra points would have been claimed had the post and bar benefitted them and harmed other teams. Bournemouth, meanwhile, would fall out of the top 10 through no fault of their own. The only team to see no change in their overall points tally, the Cherries simply lose out because the teams around them pick up some extra wins and draws.
|Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in (15-11)|
|Rank|Team|Actual Points|Points If There was No Woodwork|
|15|Leeds United|30|29|
|14|Crystal Palace|32|30|
|13|Tottenham|29|31|
|12|Brighton|31|35|
|11|Bournemouth|37|37|
|---|
Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in: 10-6
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery throws his hands up
Just one point separate Everton and Newcastle in the real table, with David Moyes' side ahead presently. However, their fortunes are flipped without the woodwork. Both teams pick up extra points to take their totals to 38, although it's the Magpies who steal a march on the Toffees due to their superior goal difference.
Brentford have seen their post and bar hit fewer times than any other team in the Premier League so far. The woodwork has come to their aid on just three occasions and, consequently, there's not much change in their points total. The deduction of one point does mean that they fall one place in the table, though.
Sunderland's remarkable season might well have been even more impressive had they managed to see more of their shots fly in off the post instead of off of them. The Black Cats' tally rises to 40, which would have resulted in them moving up more than any other team in the league.
The same cannot be said, though, for Aston Villa. Currently third in the league, Unai Emery's side would have lost four points and three places had opposition strikes gone in instead of hitting the woodwork. Opta's data indicates that they are outperforming their expected points total by 17.5, which perhaps illustrates that there has been a hint of good fortune around their campaign thus far.
|Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in (10-6)|
|Rank|Team|Actual Points|Points If There was No Woodwork|
|10|Everton|37|38|
|9|Newcastle|36|38|
|8|Brentford|40|39|
|7|Sunderland|36|40|
|6|Aston Villa|50|46|
|---|
Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in: 5-1
Arsenal's Declan Rice looks dejected after Manchester United's Matheus Cunha scores
Although the top five remain as they are, their positions are slightly more jumbled up. Liverpool and Chelsea both rise to fifth and fourth respectively, with the Blues breaking the 50-point mark had the post and bar not denied them so frequently.
In third, though, lie Arsenal. Mikel Arteta's side have been saved by the woodwork more than it's cost them, as the set-piece kings lose three points to lose their grip on the Premier League's summit. While not a dramatic change in total, it's Manchester United's improvement which costs them.
The Red Devils, having hit the post or bar more than any other team, would have 10 additional points had their fortunes been slightly different, with them ahead of the Gunners on goal difference. Michael Carrick has managed to turn the tide at Old Trafford, but perhaps this serves to highlight that Ruben Amorim was unfortunate prior to his sacking.
Although United pick up more points than any other team here, it's still not enough for them to catch their local rivals. Manchester City and Pep Guardiola pick up four additional points, with only Bruno Fernandes (5) hitting the woodwork more than striker Erling Haaland (4) according to PlayerStats. If the Sky Blues can find a more clinical edge in the business end of the season, perhaps they will manage to catch Arsenal in the race for silverware.
|Premier League Table if Shots That Hit Woodwork Went in (5-1)|
|Rank|Team|Actual Points|Points If There was No Woodwork|
|5|Liverpool|42|46|
|4|Chelsea|44|52|
|3|Arsenal|58|55|
|2|Manchester United|45|55|
|1|Manchester City|53|57|
|---|
All statistics courtesy of Opta unless stated otherwise - Correct as of 21/02/2026