MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - JANUARY 17: Josep 'Pep' Guardiola, head coach of Manchester City, looks dejected prior to the Premier Leag
Man City have yet to learn the outcome of the tribunal (Image: Getty Images)
Manchester City could face a deduction of 40 to 60 points if they are found guilty of some of the most serious allegations levelled against them, warns a football finance expert. Both City and the Premier League are still awaiting the verdict on the 115 charges against the club for alleged financial infringements between 2009 and 2018. The inquiry into City's supposed violations of the Premier League's regulations concluded in December 2024 after a 12-week tribunal, but the independent commission has yet to announce its decision.
City have refuted any misconduct and are believed to be confident of being exonerated. Fourteen months have passed since the tribunal and the commission continues to deliberate. Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire has been closely monitoring the case and states that an estimated 500,000 pieces of evidence were submitted by both the defence and prosecution during the tribunal.
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Maguire expects a verdict within the next few months, with City and the Premier League likely to receive 24 hours' notice before it is revealed publicly. He suggests that whilst predicting the outcome is impossible, examining recent precedents shows just how monumental the result could be if it goes against City.
"The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that's an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL, so therefore it has to be a points deduction," Maguire explained on The Overlap Fan Debate.
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"If we take a look at precedents, we've had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it's far bigger. The numbers involved, we're not certain about, but they're likely to be quite significant.
"So I think you have to add a zero to what we've seen from Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would, I think, on merit, be consistent with what we've seen from other decisions on logic. If they want to go further then we don't know the severity.
Kyle Walker the City captain lifts the Premier League trophy at the presentation ceremony following the F.A. Premier League matc
Man City celebrate winning the Premier League in 2024 (Image: Getty Images)
"In the cases of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP [Financial Fair Play] purely. The accusations against Manchester City are why it's taking so long. Corporate fraud is a very serious accusation. The board of directors would have to go. How can you be in a meeting room with other members of the Premier League and the Premier League itself, of whom you're a shareholder, with this accusation being proven?
"If you take a look at what happened with Juventus in Serie A, their board had to resign when they were claiming things about player wages that were proven to be untrue. I think there's an honesty thing here, if Manchester City are proven to be guilty. And that could mean a complete restructure of the club."
There has been considerable exasperation over the hold-up, stemming from the intricacy of the case and the requirement for the three-person panel to deliberate collectively.
"[Judging] by the cases similar to a fraud case, I think we're probably into the final reaches of getting a decision," Maguire added.
"I think part of the challenge is that, because there are three very senior people on the call for making that final judgement, getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult and that has delayed the case.
"It should be resolved in the next few months, but we've said this before. But there's an awful lot of evidence to go through and the charges are very very serious so you've got to have enough evidence."
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