Aston Villa have a goals problem. It’s not an expected goals problem, just a plain old actual goals problem.
Villa have been on the end of some very lukewarm attempts at comedy by abusers of statistical indicators this season but Unai Emery has worked to deliver results in the real world of opponents and blocks and tactics. Those results have deteriorated.
We can look at that as a regression to what’s expected according to the data or we can accept that losing Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans and John McGinn to injury is simply very bad news that’s done Villa no favours in terms of chance creation.
Villa need to make chances
Big chances have been at a premium for Villa all season. It’s a result of the way they play and the tactics used against them, and it shows in the goalscoring form of striker Ollie Watkins. It’s not the only factor there.
At their best, they’ve been better than anyone at having other ways to score. When they’re not at their best, it’s worth looking again at the matter of chance creation.
In the six Premier League matches since the inevitable blank in a 0-0 against Crystal Palace in January, Villa have scored five goals: two against Newcastle United and one each against AFC Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion and Leeds United.
Nobody’s going to get anywhere with that sort of output and trying to create more chances should be the next move.
Villa have created nine big chances in those matches, four against Newcastle in the best performance and three against a Brentford team that played with ten men for more than half of the match at Villa Park.
Emery can’t leave chances on the bench. His substitutions against Leeds on Saturday gave the team a sharper edge and the fact that Ross Barkley and Jadon Sancho came on to make things happen should have them in the frame to start on Friday against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Embracing the middle of the pitch?
Sancho coming in for Leon Bailey is the definition of a tap-in but finding a role for Barkley, who is a bright enough and creative enough player to justify the effort in these circumstances, is less straightforward.
The answer might play into Villa’s hands. A lack of attacking width has been a major criticism for years, pre-dating even Emery, and it’s true that Villa like to attack centrally even if tightening up on effectiveness out wide would seem to be an option too.
If Barkley is part of the solution, shifting more deliberately to box midfield in a 4-2-2-2 isn’t unrealistic. It would be very narrow but releasing Matty Cash and Ian Maatsen on the flanks and leaving Douglas Luiz and Amadou Onana to err on the defensive side in midfield mightn’t be such a bad idea.
That creates a spot in the second ‘two’ for Barkley, with options including Sancho and Emi Buendía depending on the desire for a little extra width.
Morgan Rogers could operate there too but he’d be more likely to play with a central striker, pushing up to join Watkins or Tammy Abraham – we can be relatively sure two straight-up strikers won’t be a big part of Emery’s toolkit.
Shuffling attacking personnel
One of the benefits of a set-up like that is that it’s a very small shift away from reverting to the way Villa more typically play in possession, which for all intents and purposes is a double pivot in midfield – necessarily Luiz and Onana for now – with three players off a central striker.
Keeping Rogers in that three doesn’t mean Barkley can’t start matches. Sancho replacing Bailey on the right works best in the 4-2-3-1 and Barkley’s inclusion means Rogers moving over to the left.
This is a good option for Emery. Without the incisiveness of Tielemans, Villa need effective creators further up the pitch. Barkley can be that in one way, Sancho in another.
Rogers has done some of his best attacking work off the left this season and playing there allows him to push up closer to a striker with the left-back overlapping to give defenders something to think about.
One way or another, it’s time for Emery to suck it and see. Nine big chances and five goals in six matches is a problem. A manager of his calibre is more than capable of meeting the challenge and he will know he has the puzzle pieces he needs.