Leeds United enjoyed another Premier League relegation boost over the weekend.
Leeds United took another step towards Premier League safety following their 1-1 draw at Aston Villa last weekend. The Whites might feel disappointed to have conceded so late but with West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur all dropping points at home, they remain well-placed in the relegation battle.
Daniel Farke’s side looked on course for all three points at Villa Park, with Anton Stach’s wonderful free-kick on course to earn a massive victory. But while Leeds defended well for large parts of the second-half, the pressure eventually told with substitute Tammy Abraham levelling on 88 minutes.
Like Leeds, West Ham added another point to their tally following a 0-0 draw at home to Bournemouth they could easily have won based on the chances. Forest and Spurs, meanwhile, both lost at home to Liverpool and Arsenal respectively on Sunday while victories for Crystal Palace and Brighton pulled them further away.
Following another big weekend of action at the bottom of the Premier League, statistical experts Opta updated their season predictions and it remains good reading for Leeds. Farke’s side are expected to remain 15th come May on 45 points, with just a 2.2% chance of being relegated according to the model.
Which essentially means Opta expect Leeds to pick up 14 more points from their final 11 games. That could come in the form of four wins and two draws but could also be achieved with as few as two wins and eight stalemates.
For the first time this season Leeds are now less likely to be relegated than Spurs, with Opta giving them a 4.8% chance of dropping into the Championship. Forest (23.2%) look to be West Ham’s closest rivals, with the Hammers assigned a 70.8% chance of the drop. Burnley (97.8%) and Wolves (100%) look destined for the second-tier.
How many points do Leeds United need to survive?
Despite their recent uptick in form, West Ham are expected to occupy 18th place come the final whistle at home to Leeds in May. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have been tipped to pick up a further 11 points from as many games, leaving them on a predicted final total of 36.
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Should Opta’s prediction prove correct, it would leave Leeds a lot closer to safety than many feel right now. If West Ham finish the season on 36 points then Farke’s side would need to pick up just six more points to end their own campaign on 37 - albeit with the pair facing off on the final day, that would be too close for comfort.
Leeds will of course be looking for more than 37 points, which would see them fall just below the point-per-game average Farke has regularly mentioned as a target. With Sunderland, Brentford, Burnley, Wolves and Brighton all still due at Elland Road, they will certainly be aiming higher.
This week, however, the focus will be entirely on Saturday and the visit of Manchester City to Elland Road. Another good result would give Leeds the platform to continue pulling towards safety in their final 10 games.
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